Qahwa Sada

around the web, nov 15

Relaunch of a new Qahwa Sada now set for immediately post-Thanksgiving.   Good stuff coming!  In the meantime, some Middle East stuff around the web:

Mohammed Samhouri, "Gaza Economic Predicament One Year After Disengagement: What Went Wrong?" November 2006. (PDF).   Crown Center, Brandeis University.

Max Rodenbeck, How Terrible Is It?, New York Review of Books, looks at the war on terror through the lens of a bunch of recent books.

Omran Salman, "Dissent and Reform in Bahrain" and Emad Omar, "Dissent and Reform in Jordan."  Links to PDFs of both papers can be found at the American Enterprise Institute Event page. (Thanks to Chanad for the link)

Nawaf Obeid has two new presentations available from the Saudi National Security Assessment Project at the US-Saudi Relations site:  "Remnants of al-Qaeda in Saudi Arabia: Current Assessment" and "Saudi Arabia's Emerging Role: New Strategic Initiatives"

Kenneth Pollack and Daniel Byman, "Explosive Affinities:  Cross-Border Consequences of Civil Strife in Iraq." Berlin Journal, Fall 2006, via Brookings Institute.

       

Paul Salem, "The Future of Lebanon", Foreign Affairs, full text via Carnegie.
....
and the November issue of the Arab Reform Bulletin.  Featured articles include:
Arab World: Regional Conflicts as Moments of Truth Amr Hamzawy
Lebanon: Hizbollah's Enduring Myth Emile El-Hokayem
U.S. Policy and Palestine: Reform and Peace are Interdependent Philip C. Wilcox, Jr.
Jordan: A Balancing Act that Keeps Political Change at Bay  Rana Sabbagh-Gargour

around the web, nov 10

Apologies for the long posting pause.  We'll be relaunching after Thanksgiving with a slightly different roster and approach, and there's already a lot of quality content lined up.   I knew this would take some tinkering to get it right, and it has, but we'll get it right. 

In the meantime, here is this week's roundup of recent Middle East studies content from around the web  (a feature which Qahwa Sada will retain in its relaunch next month as a weekly thing):

Jordan and its Islamist Movement: The Limits of Inclusion, by Nathan Brown (Carnegie).   From the abstract: "Over the past 50 years, Jordan’s rulers have encouraged Islamists to run for office, but within strict limits to discourage religious extremism. Historically, Islamist leaders have chosen to participate in the system rather than work to overthrow the regime.  As a result, the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood and the government have come to regard each other as political rivals, rather than implacable adversaries. Yet the recent pressure of regional events threatens to unravel the peace, as both sides consider whether to escalate, or contain, growing tensions.  Understanding this dynamic in Jordan helps answer some of the most critical questions about regional democratic reform: Can Islamist political parties operate within the boundaries of a democratic system? Does participation breed moderation?"

Countering Islamists at the Ballot Box, edited by David Schenker (Washington Institute for Near Eastern Policy).   The text of three fascinating presentations from a September 2006 panel:  Soner Cagaptay calls for a massive American effort to build  liberal, pro-Western parties in the Arab world;  Greg Gause calls for giving up democracy promotion;  and Mona Makram-Ebeid calls for Arab liberals to cooperate tactically with Islamists in order to pry open authoritarian regimes. 

"Anatomy of a Civil War."  Nir Rosen has written a fascinating account of Iraq's troubles for the forthcoming issue of Boston Review.  You can download an advance PDF copy at the main Boston Review site.

A new issue of the Muslim World Journal of Human Rights has been released.   The most interesting article to me was " Yemeni Reflections on Guantanamo and American Efforts for Political Reform in the Arab World" , by Charles Schmitz.

"Aims and Methods of Europe's Muslim Brotherhood," Lorenzo Vidino (Center on Islam, Democracy, and the Future of the Muslim World.)  Offers a close look at Yusuf al-Qaradawi's 1990 manifesto for the Muslim Brotherhood.   I disagree with some of the author's conclusions, but that's what makes these debates interesting!

around the web, oct 31

While I grow frustrated with the output of my colleagues for Qahwa Sada (and do drop me a line if you think that you might be a potential contributor), here's another roundup of interesting ME stuff around the web:

Simon Henderson discusses the implications of the new Saudi succession rules for the Washington Institute. 

Olivier Roy has a piece at Open Democracy based on a lecture he gave on shifts within Islamism.

Crooked Timber hosts a great symposium on a new book by Shari Berman.  It isn't about the Middle East, but it is a nice model for the kind of book symposium which we have in the works here.   

Jordanian journalist and blogger Batir Wardum is working on a list of the 100 most influential Arab intellectuals in the past 25 years.   You can see an English version of his work in progress here.

Brookings has a  sobering analysis of internal displacement due to ethnic violence in Iraq, prepared by   Ashraf al-Khalidi and Victor Tanner. 

around the web, oct 25

Some Middle East studies on the web:   

The new issue of ISIM (International Institute for the Study of Islam in the Modern World) is full of short, interesting pieces.   Among the highlights (all links go directly to PDF files):

• 10 Islamist-Leftist Cooperation in the Arab World / Jillian Schwedler & Janine A. Clark
• 16 Re-reading al-Qaeda: Writings of Yusuf al-Ayiri / Roel Meijer
• 18 Liberal Islam: Between Texts and its Modern Condition / Abdulkader Tayob
• 30 Global War on Terror as De-Militarization / Faisal Devji
• 32 Lebanese Shia Women: Temporality and Piety / Lara Deeb

Also, the Wilson Center recently produced A View From the Region:  Different Perspectives on Israel's War With Lebanon's Hizballah (PDF file).  Contributors include Rami Khouri, Aaron Miller, Martin Kramer, Hadi Semati, Murhaf Jouejati, and Soli Ozel.

Over at Jamestown, an interesting paper entitled Shifting Alliances in the Salafi Movement After the Lebanon War, by Abdul Hameed Bakier.

Kenneth Katzman prepared a CRS report for Congress on Iran's Influence in Iraq.  (PDF file; via Steve Aftergood).

Original Qahwa Sada content coming soon, just as soon as contributors get their stuff in!

around the web, oct 19

Highlights of the web today: 

Richard Haass, head of the Council on Foreign Relations, writes on "The New Middle East" in an on-line preview from the next issue of Foreign Affairs.   (My thoughts on Haass's essay here).

Policy Review offers two relevant pieces.   Peter Katzenstein and Robert Keohane, "Anti-Americanisms", offers a preview of their forthcoming edited volume;   not all about the Middle East, but they do draw on my chapter about the Arab world included in the volume.   And John Rosenthal writes about "The French Path to Jihad."

And Christopher de Bellaigue reviews two books on Iran (Ali Ansari's and Ray Takeyh's) for the New York Review of Books. 

around the web, oct 18

The highlight on the web today is the Chronicle of Higher Ed's roundup of the 2006 American Political Science Association annual meeting's panel "The Future of the Jihadi Movement:  a 5-Year forecast".  Contributions from Jarred Brachman (West Point's Combating Terrorism Center), Jessica Stern, Ambassador Barbara Bodine, and Peter Bergen.  Excerpts: 

Peter Bergen: 

"Al Qaeda has also succeeded in reconstituting itself to some degree on the Afghan-Pakistan border. Evidence can be seen in the advice, assistance, and personnel Al Qaeda is offering the Taliban in its campaign of suicide attacks in Afghanistan, as well as in the London bombings of July 7, 2005. The two lead suicide bombers in the London attacks recorded suicide "wills" with Al Qaeda's video production arm, As-Sahab, and received bomb-making training in Pakistan, according to British officials....   For terrorist organizations like Al Qaeda, ethnic Pakistanis living in Britain make perfect recruits, since they speak English and can travel on British passports. Indeed, in the wake of August's high-profile arrests, it can now be argued that the biggest terrorist threat to U.S. security emanates not from Iran or Iraq or Afghanistan but rather from Britain, our closest ally."

Barbara Bodine: 

"There are two probable trend lines to consider. First, because of specific historical and perhaps ethnic/sectarian roots, jihadism will turn inward with greater violence against regimes in the region in a drive to cleanse the power structures. Its popular appeal will be fueled by systemic corruption and civil anarchy. The Algerian civil war, the Union of Islamic Courts in Somalia, the Taliban, even the Hamas electoral victory are part of this trend. Violence against Americans and the West will increasingly be collateral damage, a means to discredit the ruling elite, destabilize the economy, and force draconian security measures that delegitimize the regime further..... Second, the alienation and self-radicalization of diaspora Muslims will continue. The driving force is not to establish an Islamic state in Britain or the United States, but a need to punish and humiliate the West through a kind of honor killings. Jihadis are not glorious warriors but criminals. The scale of death they seek to inflict, the rage they reflect, and the measures they are willing to employ go well beyond those of any common criminal or organized criminal gang, but at the end of the day, what they seek is murder and should be called such. Power struggles within the region and U.S. policies may provide rallying cries for recruiters, but the roots will be in underemployment, perceived (and real) racism, and a search for identity."

Jessica Stern: 

"From what I've seen during fieldwork in Europe, it seems that the jihadi idea is spreading way beyond the terrorists who are attacking us. It is now a "cool" way to express dissatisfaction with the status quo — with globalization, with America's dominant role in the world, with the power elite — whether that power elite is real or imagined. The jihadi idea has become a kind of gangsta rap. We Americans are smug about how badly Muslims are treated in Europe and how the resentments European Muslims feel could never be stirred to such a fever pitch here. But in the United States, as elsewhere, oppressed minority urban "honor cultures" can easily blend and morph into this protean international jihadist identity and mind-set.  The Iraq war only exacerbates that. The goal of the Al Qaeda movement is to expand the "jihadi current" around the globe. According to their literature, the jihadists were aiming to provoke us into attacking a Muslim country. This would, in their view, enhance their moral authority because they could present themselves as liberators of an occupied people. And it would reduce our moral authority, since we would be occupiers."

Jarret Brachman: 

Over the past five years, the jihadi movement has evolved into an organic, self-sustaining global insurgency. The movement seeks to reach the hearts and minds of average Muslims frustrated with the dominant political, social, and cultural order and with the perceived reluctance of Arab regimes and Islamic establishment scholars to implement Islamic law.....  In short, while bin Laden's Al Qaeda may begin to alienate Muslims who are frustrated with the wanton bloodshed, the jihadi worldview that Al Qaeda has promoted since 9/11 will continue to spread worldwide. The need for scholarly participation in the next five years of struggle against the global jihadi insurgent movement cannot be overstated.

around the web, oct 17

New stuff on the web about the Middle East:

Mike Davis, of City of Quartz fame, takes on Dubai in the New Left Review:

On the rim of the war zone, a new Mecca of conspicuous consumption and economic crime, under the iron rule of Sheikh al-Maktoum. Skyscrapers half a mile high, artificial archipelagoes, fantasy theme parks—and the indentured Asian labour force that sustains them.

Abd al-Monem Said Aly has published a brief with the Crown Center at Brandeis called "The Sixth Arab-Israeli War:  An Arab Perspective."   Download the PDF here.

The latest issue of the MIT Electronic Journal of Middle East Studies also focuses on the Israel-Lebanon war.  Find it here.

Anthony Cordesman of CSIS asks whether there is a civil war in Iraq.  Download the answer here.  (Hint:  it's "yes.") 
 

MENA around the Web

Here are some interesting newly released work on the Middle East out there on the web (which will be a regular feature on Qahwa Sada):

Marina Ottoway and Meredith Riley, Morocco: From Top-Down Reform to Democratization?   Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, October 2006:

In the case of “reform from the top,” the authors argue that the Morocco example shows the limitations of monarchial reform. Despite significant improvements in free speech, women’s rights, and economic reform, true democratization cannot exist without formal restrictions on the king’s power. Political reform, independent branches of government, and elected institutions are vital components of a democratic society.
Morocco’s main Islamist party, the PJD, may hold the key to democracy in the country. Expected to obtain the largest number of votes in the 2007 parliamentary elections, the party will become a major player in the new government.  The threat to a democratic transition is not that the party is too radical, but that it may allow itself to be co-opted by the monarch as all other parties have done. In a region where Islamists often threaten political reform, Morocco’s main Islamist party could be, paradoxically, its best chance for legitimate democracy.

Carnegie has also just released the October issue of the Arab Reform Bulletin.  Highlights include
Palestine: How Weak is Hamas? by Jarrett Blanc; Egypt: A Leap toward Reform—or Succession? by Joshua Stacher;  U.S. Policy and Yemen: Balancing Realism and Reform on the Arab Periphery Jeremy M. Sharp;  Saudi Arabia: Local Councils Struggling to Produce Results Jafar Muhammad Al Shayib; Iraqi Kurdistan: Time to Get Serious about Governance by Bilal Wahab.

The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point has released a report by David Cook entitled Paradigmatic Jihadi Movements (link to PDF at the home page).   It looks in detail at four movements cited by Abu al-Musab al-Suri as exemplary cases to see what lessons he might have taken from their experience:  Harakat Shabiba (Morocco, 1960s);  Harakat al-Dawla al-Islamiya (Algeria, 1980s); the Afghan Arabs in Lebanon (1990s); Islamic Army of Aden Abyan in Yemen (1990s). 

The International Crisis Group has just released a report on the Sudan:  Getting the UN Into Darfur.  From the executive summary:

The NCP continues to strongly reject the proposed UN deployment. Its primary motive appears to be a fear that improved security would loosen its grip on the region. Officials responsible for orchestrating the conflict since 2003 also appear to fear that a major body of UN troops in Darfur itself might eventually enforce International Criminal Court (ICC) indictments, although it is not obvious why that risk should be decisively greater for them with an extended UNMIS deployment than it is with the present one.
In responding to this rejection, full-scale non-consensual military intervention by the international community is not at this stage a defensible or realistic option. But it may be possible to persuade the NCP to alter its policies and consent to the UN mission in Darfur by moving now to targeted sanctions against regime leaders and their business interests – and immediately planning for the establishment and enforcement of a no-fly zone over Darfur that builds on the ineffective ban on offensive military flights the Security Council imposed in 2005. International support for the role of the ICC should be again clearly expressed, with the Court in turn declaring its intention to focus immediately on any war crimes or crimes against humanity committed during the current government offensive.

MERIP has just released "Illusions of Unilateralism Dispelled in Israel," by Yoav Peled:

Israel’s failures in the Lebanon war signified the divorce of two political objectives -- economic liberalization and war -- that Sharon had managed to wed though they had been believed, historically, to be at odds. Sharon’s ability to defeat the second intifada while pursuing a policy of aggressive economic liberalization made him Israel’s most popular prime minister since the introduction of public opinion polls in the late 1960s (well after Ben-Gurion’s time). But the mechanism for this seemingly historic achievement, the promised unilateral solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, was actually sleight of hand. And the Lebanon war, coupled with the summer’s events in Gaza, exposed the trick.

Finally, while it isn't brand new it is very much worth reading:  ""Xenophobia and In-Group Solidarity in Iraq: A Natural Experiment on the Impact of Insecurity", by Mansoor Moaddel,  Mark Tessler and Ronald Inglehart.  In the current issue of Perspectives on Politics,  available for download in PDF format here.