around the web, oct 18

The highlight on the web today is the Chronicle of Higher Ed's roundup of the 2006 American Political Science Association annual meeting's panel "The Future of the Jihadi Movement:  a 5-Year forecast".  Contributions from Jarred Brachman (West Point's Combating Terrorism Center), Jessica Stern, Ambassador Barbara Bodine, and Peter Bergen.  Excerpts: 

Peter Bergen: 

"Al Qaeda has also succeeded in reconstituting itself to some degree on the Afghan-Pakistan border. Evidence can be seen in the advice, assistance, and personnel Al Qaeda is offering the Taliban in its campaign of suicide attacks in Afghanistan, as well as in the London bombings of July 7, 2005. The two lead suicide bombers in the London attacks recorded suicide "wills" with Al Qaeda's video production arm, As-Sahab, and received bomb-making training in Pakistan, according to British officials....   For terrorist organizations like Al Qaeda, ethnic Pakistanis living in Britain make perfect recruits, since they speak English and can travel on British passports. Indeed, in the wake of August's high-profile arrests, it can now be argued that the biggest terrorist threat to U.S. security emanates not from Iran or Iraq or Afghanistan but rather from Britain, our closest ally."

Barbara Bodine: 

"There are two probable trend lines to consider. First, because of specific historical and perhaps ethnic/sectarian roots, jihadism will turn inward with greater violence against regimes in the region in a drive to cleanse the power structures. Its popular appeal will be fueled by systemic corruption and civil anarchy. The Algerian civil war, the Union of Islamic Courts in Somalia, the Taliban, even the Hamas electoral victory are part of this trend. Violence against Americans and the West will increasingly be collateral damage, a means to discredit the ruling elite, destabilize the economy, and force draconian security measures that delegitimize the regime further..... Second, the alienation and self-radicalization of diaspora Muslims will continue. The driving force is not to establish an Islamic state in Britain or the United States, but a need to punish and humiliate the West through a kind of honor killings. Jihadis are not glorious warriors but criminals. The scale of death they seek to inflict, the rage they reflect, and the measures they are willing to employ go well beyond those of any common criminal or organized criminal gang, but at the end of the day, what they seek is murder and should be called such. Power struggles within the region and U.S. policies may provide rallying cries for recruiters, but the roots will be in underemployment, perceived (and real) racism, and a search for identity."

Jessica Stern: 

"From what I've seen during fieldwork in Europe, it seems that the jihadi idea is spreading way beyond the terrorists who are attacking us. It is now a "cool" way to express dissatisfaction with the status quo — with globalization, with America's dominant role in the world, with the power elite — whether that power elite is real or imagined. The jihadi idea has become a kind of gangsta rap. We Americans are smug about how badly Muslims are treated in Europe and how the resentments European Muslims feel could never be stirred to such a fever pitch here. But in the United States, as elsewhere, oppressed minority urban "honor cultures" can easily blend and morph into this protean international jihadist identity and mind-set.  The Iraq war only exacerbates that. The goal of the Al Qaeda movement is to expand the "jihadi current" around the globe. According to their literature, the jihadists were aiming to provoke us into attacking a Muslim country. This would, in their view, enhance their moral authority because they could present themselves as liberators of an occupied people. And it would reduce our moral authority, since we would be occupiers."

Jarret Brachman: 

Over the past five years, the jihadi movement has evolved into an organic, self-sustaining global insurgency. The movement seeks to reach the hearts and minds of average Muslims frustrated with the dominant political, social, and cultural order and with the perceived reluctance of Arab regimes and Islamic establishment scholars to implement Islamic law.....  In short, while bin Laden's Al Qaeda may begin to alienate Muslims who are frustrated with the wanton bloodshed, the jihadi worldview that Al Qaeda has promoted since 9/11 will continue to spread worldwide. The need for scholarly participation in the next five years of struggle against the global jihadi insurgent movement cannot be overstated.

Comments

[Jon Fernquest]

"From what I've seen during fieldwork in Europe, it seems that the jihadi idea is spreading way beyond the terrorists who are attacking us. It is now a "cool" way to express dissatisfaction with the status quo — with globalization, with America's dominant role in the world, with the power elite..."

Within weeks after 9-11 there were a variety of black T-shirts sporting sentimental portraits of Osama bin Laden and flaming Twin Towers for sale all over Thailand where I live and work.

Only a few months later there the local discotheque in Maesai, Chiang Rai sported a show with an American GI chasing someone in Arabic costume and another with a conical rice farmers that like that worn in Vietnam.

My point is that this was happening in Asia almost after the 9-11 event itself. As an American the T-shirts and show disturbed me. The most obvious point being, that local Thais would hardly have stood someone ridiculing their suffering in a similar disaster. Realistically, the further 9-11 fades into the past, the more people are going to use it for their own ideological purposes.

[tiania stevens]

Is there anyone in London who is a Middle Expert who tutors? You can contact me on tiania_aus@yahoo.co.uk
Tiania