The latest bombings in Anbar and Mosul seem to have focused some attenion on what's going on with the Sunni Awakenings. Awakenings figures have been grumbling for so long over the delays in their integration into the Iraqi security forces and the growing toll taken by the ISI (AQI)'s attacks targeting them that I suspect a lot of people had tuned them out. Last week Al-Hayat published several pieces highlighting the anger of at least some Awakenings leaders over their alleged 'betrayal' by the United States, as they were allegedly being asked to stand down in favor of government forces. A flurry of articles appear today on the same general theme: a state of chaos on the Awakening Councils; questions about the status of Abu Abed of the Amiriya Awakening; claims from an Anbar Salvation Council leader that some of the Awakenings have been penetrated by AQI; and more.
One well-established contributor to al-Qaeda's al-Ekhlaas forum wrote the other day that a stream of Awakenings members have been making contacts with the "mujahideen" about rejoining the Islamic State of Iraq (AQI) and in some cases have already returned to the fight. Another widely circulated post claims to present the "new strategy" of the Islamic State of Iraq, infiltrating the Awakenings to gather information about the enemy and then to attack from within. I'd guess that's mostly bravado - the Awakenings have been "collapsing" on the jihadist forums almost since before they started - but given what's happening on the ground it's worth attention.
One other point. After the al-Hayat reports last week, I asked a wide range of people whether there was in fact a change in American policy towards the Awakenings. Nobody really seemed to know. But I noticed today when al-Hayat reports a statement by MNF-I Spokesman Kevin Bergner that some of the Awakenings are no longer needed for security (still looking for an English transcript to link, sorry). He reportedly talked about the challenge of transitioning them into other, non-fighting roles, but the real issue here has long been that many of them aspire to police and military positions which do not seem to be forthcoming even under best case scenarios. That used to keep General Petraeus up at night - does it still?
Are we now seeing the playing out of Petraeus's strategy to deal with this problem? I don't know. Does this confirm the complaints of the Awakenings leaders about the US pulling back its support from at least some of them? I don't know. If so, will this drive Awakenings fighters back into active insurgency? I don't know. Is this recent uptick in attacks, combined with all the reports of disarray and anger among the Awakenings, evidence that this is happening? Once again, I don't know. But these strike me as, at the least, important questions... which merit attention now. Hope somebody's keeping an eye on it.
update- Good discussion about this over at Abu Muqawama's place. One commenter there points out that AQI has been attacking the Awakenings for a long time now. Most assuredly - a recent forum post (on al-Ekhlaas and on al-Boraq if not others) claimed that they had already killed more than 160 Awakenings leaders.
In Baghdad the Prime Minister has ordered the Army to disband the Sons of Iraq. However the PM's position has changed in that all qualified members are to be offered jobs either in the security forces or other government positions. Only a short time ago job training was being offered, not government jobs, for those who were accepted into the security forces. The other problem is some important leaders in the Awakening are involved in the provincial elections and the US can't be seen financially backing one political aspirant over another. The Iraqi Army has said it's very difficult to coordinate operations between the Army, police, the Sons of Iraq and the US military. However the Army also clearly recognizes that the security forces still lack adequate forces.
Posted by: Chris Baker | June 29, 2008 at 12:23 AM
It seems like the government is going after some of the SOI leaders. 6/29/08 the LA Times reported the story of the commander of the SOI in Amariya, who was charged with murder and fled to Jordan.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/iraq/complete/la-fg-sons29-2008jun29,0,1609844.story
Reuters reports that the head of the SOI in Adhamiya was arrested for murder. Some of his fighters protested for his release.
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/pictures/BAG300.htm
Posted by: motown67 | June 30, 2008 at 11:33 AM
The other problem is some important leaders in the Awakening are involved in the provincial elections and the US can't be seen financially backing one political aspirant over another.
Doesn't seem to be bothering the US too much in the many other cases where in our names and with our money operatives are busily backing some parties and squeezing out others. Like the late Mr. Farley, a State Department contractor who had just helped force out the Sadrist head of a local council in Sadr City.
Given that, a more plausible explanation is that the US occupation organizers just aren't particularly interested in helping any Sunnis into government positions, period.
Posted by: Nell | June 30, 2008 at 04:30 PM
You forgot to mention the reduction in US forces. I know, it's the awakenings and not the increase in US troops that is the hero of last years pushback. But then again...
Posted by: madtom | July 01, 2008 at 11:26 PM
I just wrote a piece on my blog about the possible futures for the Sons of Iraq.
http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/
Posted by: motown67 | July 02, 2008 at 01:51 PM