Iran and AQI, the prequel and the sequel

Very quickly, in between things...another edition of "next week's discussions, this week."   Today's article in al-Hayat is the latest in a near-flood of allegations of cooperation between Iran and al-Qaeda in Iraq in certain Arab media outlets.   It's a fairly obvious propaganda move, interesting because of what it signals about emerging political lines coming out of Anbar, Baghdad, Riyadh and Washington rather than because anything is really going on.  But it's worth noting that these claims are proliferating - what's the deal?

It is key to note that virtually all of the allegations are coming from the Awakenings and/or the Saudi media. The allegations have been made before, most notably by the Awakenings figure Abu Azzam al-Tamimi on the Saudi TV station al-Arabiya's key anti-AQ propaganda program 'Death Makers' in January.  They really started proliferating a few weeks ago - shortly after Condoleeza Rice's trip to Baghdad, for what it's worth, and in line with the increasing focus by American officials on Iran's negative role in Iraq.  Over the last week, Ali Hatem of the Anbar Salvation Council accused Tehran of supporting AQI and called on the government to close the Iranian embassy, while ASC head Ahmed Abu Risha accused the Iranian embassy of funding terrorist groups in Iraq.  Today Abu Abed, the head of the al-Amariya Awakening who barely escaped an assassination attempt over the weekend, claimed Iranian support for a new AQI unit.  Meanwhile, al-Arabiya's 'Death Makers' ran a two-part program (April 18 and 25) which featured an "ex-AQI" figure claiming, among other things, Iranian backing for AQI.  Note - in this context, Ayman al-Zawahiri's extended discourse on Iran in last week's tape may be relevant as well.]

That sounds like a lot, but again it's important to note that almost all of this comes from the same two self-interested sources: Awakenings leaders and the Saudi media.  I doubt that these allegations are proliferating right now because there is actually support for AQI from Tehran.  I've seen little evidence to suggest that, at any rate, other than what's on offer from these sources.  Far more likely is that the Awakenings and Anbar Salvation Council leaders are looking for a way to combine their two enemies - AQI and Iran - in a way which allows them to cooperate with the Maliki government despite viewing the latter as both sectarian Shia and pro-Iranian.  Back when AQI started attacking the Awakenings people, many of them muttered that it was really Iranian-backed militias - i.e. within the Iraqi security forces - carrying out the attacks.  This is a way to make the same basic anti-Iranian argument without implicating the Iraqi government.

The palpable anti-Iranian and anti-Shia sentiment among the Awakenings has been a major concern all along, since it so obviously bodes ill for the future prospects of sectarian peace. It's a major reason why so many of us have been skeptical about the long-term prospects of the Awakenings strategy - it's hard to see much reconciliation coming out of groups which denounce the current Iraqi government as the "agent of the Iranian occupation."   This "Iran-AQI" rhetoric gives them a more politically acceptable way to demand that the Iranian embassy be closed and to denounce Iran's influence in Iraq.  It's not insignificant that they would see an interest in making such a move, I would add - particularly as they jockey for a role in official Iraqi politics whether via provincial elections or through other means (such as their thus-far-thwarted efforts to expel the Islamic Party from Anbar by force or to be appointed to fill the Sunni positions in Maliki's government). The Iran accusations buttress their own claims against AQI at a time when by many accounts their internal cohesion is fraying and  they face grumbling within their ranks.

There are probably other reasons, as well.  They no doubt understand full well how such rhetoric might please Washington (which pays their bills), and certain American politicians who are more likely to give them unlimited support without strings attached.  And it clearly serves the interests of the Saudis, who are facing their own issues over how to reconcile their worries about Iran with their skepticism about the Maliki government, and who would much prefer that Iran receive the blame for AQI rather than, say, Saudi Arabia.

This all seems to be a relevant context to the sudden rise of "Iran-AQI" rhetoric coming out of the Awakenings and amplified by the Saudi media.  I wouldn't be at all surprised to see this propaganda begin to blow back into the American debate soon - whether in support of McCain or as part of a campaign to confront Iran - so it's worth paying attention now to what's bubbling up.   

Would write more but I'm now late for a meeting... [update: some edits finally made, despite the best efforts of my piece of cr*p Dell laptop to prevent accomplishing anything... I definitely need a new iBook.  Sorry.]

Comments

[nur al-cubicle]

Isn't this part of the script? Here's the chronology: Cheney summoned to Riyadh in winter 2007, Philip Zelikow, the Iranian expert at State then suddenly resigned, combat brigades were deployed to Baghdad to go after Sadr, Gen Petraeus began enrolling the Awakenings, Adm. Fallon, known to dislike the idea of bombing Iran resigned, both Gen. Petraeus and Amb. Crocker sat for hours in front on Congress raising the bloody flag and pointing to Iran (at least in pubic testimony, all this Iran-AQI rhetoric and the presence of Bush himself in Saudi next month. I wonder what kind of bargain the President will offer? An ok to bomb Iran in exchange for clearing the space to return the Sunni to power in Iraq?

BTW, yesterday there was a big birthday commemoration for Saddam in Salaheddin.

[bb]

Reckon the either/or is this:

EITHER the world is astounded when it is revealed that Condi Rice has just completed a super-secret 3 day visit to Tehran with the agreed photographs of her and at least one senior mullah issued to prove it

OR the cruise missiles lob in without prior fanfare over 4 or 5 days in the run up to the Dem and Repub conventions?

Base this prediction on the following experience:

In 1986 I was on a business trip and sitting in the piano lounge of one of LA's better hotels. All of a sudden the pianist stopped playing and spoke solemnly into his microphone. He said - along the lines of :

"The President of the United States has just announced his decision to bomb Libya. Our planes are in the air now"

The Americans around me immediately started conversing with each other in hushed and similarly solemn tones to that taken by the pianist.

After a suitable pause, he resumed his playing and life went on.

I remember sipping my martini, and thinking "this sure ain't Melbourne, Australia."

Since then have always understood there's nothing quite like being the Commander in Chief of the US of A. Even Obama seems to be looking forward to it now.

(It should also be noted that President Ghadaffi of Libya is now regarded as an ally of the US and he agreed to cough up all of his nuclear capabilities which turned out to be much more advanced than western intelligence realised at the time?)

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There's no such thing as "something for nothing", and the gods offer many, many clues in the marketplace regarding this.
Frugality can cross a line and hurt you in the eyes of the gods.
The gods convince Oakland pimps that chilldhood prostitution is OK - Learn from the lies they tell other groups!!!

The gods are pimps. They pimp everyone who complies with their lies, and like in Oakland you won't get anything out of it either.
Don't be distracted by their middle-management tactic. Considering how many racist Italians there were expect the high-heeled transsexual's Boot is represented out working the streets of Oakland, as it was so prevalient during the homosexaul explosition in the 20th century, ironically. The gods LOVE their poetic justice:::"It's not fair." Fair woudl have been to make an example of Italians as they stepped off the boat, but this killing spree woudl have helped Earth maintain sustainability, and the gods used the Italians for something quite the opposite.
"And the Jews!!!", the Italian's 20th century partners in crime.
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As people begin to age the gods employ corrupting tactics. They ultimately begin to look down on the children and the wisdom they recently understood:::
They voluntarily turn their back on their opportunity to ascend and instead embrace evil.
It's not old people who go to heaven. Old people must come back because of the mistakes they've made throughout their lives. Children are the ones who have the opportunity to ascend.

Children are discounted by adults in society. The gods corrupt people as they age, use trust-building tactics and soon adults view the children as ignorant, yet to understand the god's system, and subsequently look down on the children. This is one of the most bitter, painful ironies the gods employ, for people consciously turn their back on and lose their opportunity to ascend::::
Religions teach that old people to go to heaven when they die. They don't. Old people are reincarnated. It's the children who go to heaven, those who have a chance at immortality.
The wisdom the gods impart to children, either through their innocence/purity or religious-based educational pursuits are the gods sharing the truth with their most favored people::::It's the children whom the gods teach the right way for it is the children who have a chance. For example, they teach children to have faith, for understanding the god's geographical clues hurts people by illustrating negative things, opening the door for the god's to employ deceptive tactics.
Old people don't go to heaven. Old people must come back because of the mistakes they've made throughout their lives. It's the children who have the opportunity to go to "heaven". They must behave apprioriately, think correctly and be genuinely god-fearing. Their innocence and lack of desensitization ensures they have a real opportunity to achieve this goal.

This is charecteristic of the gods methodology::::The big prize gone early, deception compels people to chase something that has already been decided. They sent this clue with boss as well. It is also a clue supporting my claim RW&B's german is in fact Christianity's Anti-Christ. Logic also dictates, considering the definition.
The confusion over this multi-dimentional positioning will serve as an effective tactic, eliminating many additional disfavored in the process, for positioning states the Apocalypse to be a continuation of WorldWarII's Aryan superrace ideals, positioned as punishment for the 5th century invastion of the Roman Empire:::John's Fourth Reich.
This amounts only to "nested theater":::::Levels of positioning enables the gods to scapegoat:::::RW&B merely is the tool the gods chose to execute the final scene of their scripted theater that is human history.

Just as they would have had me chase boss so would they have wanted me to sign on to this theater, evil by definition, and chase this role of Anti-Christ. By doing so I would have incurred evil and would have been punished, painfully "losing" Anti-Christ in the process.
Does that mean RW&B is not the Anti-Christ?? I suspect as they would have "offered" it to me so will there be a fake Anti-Christ for those in these generations to accept as well. But it is a clone host. This is ALL clone host theater, created not as a clue to me but instead designed to be preditory on the disfavored, designed to increase indecency and further the god's goal of justification towards The End.
We were all merely peasants centuries ago, struggling with our disfavor, but without the enormity of temptations, real and telepathic, which exist today.

They have shared I was positioned to some disfavored as the Second Coming of Christ, explaining all the evil surrounding me and RW&B's placement in the "eye of The Beast" was to positon the sabotage of my candidacy (Damien Omen, Big Army Men, etc).
The Big Lie of course is that Christianity is evil. The reverse positioning nature of Planet Earth dictates that good is demonized, as we wintessed in World War II, while evil is put on a pedistal, as we see with the Italians.
The truth? The gods used their tools to create this and the rest of the incidents surrounding this Situation to distract the people from my message, for I speak the truth:::Only you can save you. You have to be responsible for your own relationship with the gods.

The gods are asexual. They have no sex organs nor rectums.
When the gods take children these individuals have the opportunity to become "god-like". Temptations are employed and, if sucessful, these are the individuals who make up the human race's immortals.
I believe there are opportunities that exist for females that do no exist for males. I don't mean to paint with a broad brush but women's "sexual peak" may represent the transistion to "sociological males" and their "fall from grace". Considering today's promiscuity I question whether this is currently applicable, and is yet anther 20th century-earlier phenominah.
I believe Purgatory is real. I think it is a temporary destination, perhaps sparsely utilized until the Apocalypse, but this will be the destination for those who "ascend" during the event. As they've said this planet will too be disposed of one day and it is imperative people try to avoid that destination, for there may be no escaping its fate.