keep asking, keep telling

The headline findings of the latest ABC/BBC/ARD/NHK public opinion survey in Iraq, conducted from February 12-20, 2008, emphasize the greater optimism and feelings of security among most Iraqis.  But probing deeper into the results reveals some important caveats - above all, that this has not translated into significant support for U.S. occupation forces or into a desire for a longer American presence, and very significant sectarian differences in outlooks remain.  I was frustrated that the results I have did not break down the demographic or regional variation in answers, even though some of the reporting has done so (for instance, the BBC report mentions that 67% of Sunnis say things are going poorly in their lives, against 62% of generally contented Shia and 73% happy Kurds).   Keeping in mind the real methodological difficulties with carrying out public opinion surveys in Iraqi conditions, this is still invaluable information about Iraqi attitudes with which all sides of the political debate should grapple.

The survey does indeed show that Iraqis feel significantly better about security.  54% now say that things in their life are going well, compared to 39% in both February 2007 and August 2007.  Only 18% expect things to be worse a year from now (39% in August, 32% in February).   39% say that security in their area is bad (56% in August, 53% in February).  46% say that security has improved in their area and 36% say it has improved in the country in the last six months. For perspective, keep in mind that despite the perceived improvement, 63% still say that they do not feel safe in their neighborhoods.   56% say that things are going badly for Iraq as a whole, which is down from 78% in August and 66% in February but still high.  Also keep in mind the sectarian variation: 

This has not translated into more positive feelings about the American presence, however.  Only 20% express any confidence in US occupation forces - which means that despite all the COIN work, US forces remain the single organization in the survey in which Iraqis express the least confidence.  For comparisons sake, the Iraqi Army gets 65% confidence, the Police 67% - an intriguing finding, presumably heavily divided along sectarian lines given the general view that the Army has become more professionalized while the Police remain nastily sectarian.  Local leaders have the confidence of 47%, the Awakening Councils 56%, and the national government 48%, while local militias have the confidence of only 22% - making them the only ones to give the U.S. forces a run for their money in the non-confidence race.

How do Iraqis evalute the performance of the U.S. forces a year into the surge?  70% say that the US forces have done a bad job carrying out their responsibilities in Iraq - down from 76% a year ago, but still very, very high.    72% oppose the presence of Coalition forces in Iraq, down from 78% a year ago but still very, very high.  Only 36% say that security has gotten better in the areas where US forces have been sent, while 61% say that the presence of US forces in Iraq makes overall security worse. 

And perhaps most importantly:  46% say the removal of American forces would improve Iraqi security and 23% say things would stay pretty much the same, compared to only 29% who say a US withdrawal would make things worse.  This is important.  It is a truism in American politics that only U.S. forces stand in the way of an Iraqi security disaster.  But that position is shared by only 29% of Iraqis, the same Iraqis who in this survey largely agree that security conditions have currently improved.   

And has the improved security created the conditions for political dialogue in Iraq, which was after all the point of the surge?  Only 21% say that it has made things better;  43% say that it has made things worse and 36% say it has had no effect.  On this core strategic question, Iraqis seem to overwhelmingly agree with Obama and Petraeus (and me), not with McCain, Kagan and O'Hanlon. 

How long should US forces remain?  The single largest response is that the US forces should leave immediately:  38%, down from 47% in August but up from 35% a year ago.   35% say "remain until security is restored", 14% say "remain until Iraqi government is stronger", 10% say "remain until Iraqi security forces can operate independently".  In other words, 59% support a more generic "remain until specific conditions are met" - but I'll leave it to others to fight out which Democratic position that most closely approximates.  And then, there are the McCain supporters among the Iraqi population:  3% say "remain longer but leave eventually", and 1% say "never leave." 

Every pro-war advocate who cites the very real increased confidence and feelings of security expressed by Iraqis in this survey should be asked to then discuss the views, expressed by the same pool of respondents, that

• only 20% have confidence in US forces
• only 27% say that the US presence in Iraq is making security better
• only 37% say they feel safe in their neighborhoods
• only 21% say that the increased security has improved the conditions for political dialogue
• only 26% support the presence of Coalition forces in Iraq
• only 36% say that security has gotten better in the areas where US forces have been sent
• only 29% say the removal of US forces would make security worse
• 38% want US forces to leave immediately, more than said so a year ago, while only 4% want an indefinite or long-term US presence.
  

I've left out a lot of detailed questions about sectarian relations, economic conditions, and much more which I encourage interested observers to study for themselves. And then there's Q35, on the impact that a new president will have on Iraq.  33% say better, 27% worse, and 39% not much difference.  From where I sit, that sounds like 39% of Iraqis expect Clinton to win, 33% Obama and 27% McCain... but I'm sure there are other ways of reading that question. 

Comments

[Solomon2]

I'm ignoring the news stories and reading the raw data. Dr. Lynch, I'm afraid your deductions may be flawed. For example, for Question 12A, "[Since you feel the security situation has gotten better in the past six months,] who do you feel deserves the most credit for this improved security?" "U.S. troops" or "coalition forces" are NOT one of the listed answers, though they may be grouped in the category, "Other" which received the largest number of votes.

One really has to be on the watch for sensationalist editors, especially when it comes to now-dull stories like Iraq.

[bb]

Re: the demographics: Back in September when AA posted the previous ABC/BBC poll I commented that the methodology appeared to skew towards over-weighting the Sunni Arab (rejectionist) point of view and underweighting the Shia and Kurdish. This is confirmed again by the published methodolgy (http://www.abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/story?id=44439928page=1)that states that the demographic breakdown of respondants in the last three polls was between 30-33% Sunni Arabs, 50% Shia and 15% Kurds. This flies in the face of the Consitutional vote in 2005 and the general election in December 05 (on proportional representation) which showed Sunni Arabs to be between 20 and 22% of the population?

This doesn't invalidate the polls because assumptions can be drawn from the TRENDS from one poll to the next. The big story appears to be that the Sunni population is rapidly recasting its view of the US presence which confirms reporting elsewhere. On virtually every single indicator on questions relating to security, the US presence, attacks on the US etc Iraqi opinion has dramatically turned around since the Surge began to take effect last September when Petraeous appeared before Congress?

What effect is this likely to have on the Democrat presidential candidates withdrawal policies given that 63% of Iraqis do not want the US to withdraw unilaterally?

The other big story out of the poll is the extraordinarinarily right-across-the board support, ie Sunnis, Shia and Kurds, for the Awakening Councils? Perhaps the late Sheikh Abu Risha is due some posthumous credit from the good AA after the derision and drubbing he got back last September and before that?

It was also good to see that support for a united Iraq also increased, also approval of the Iraqi Govt and the much maligned and derided Nuri al-Maliki?

[Zathras]

It's a pity this survey does not appear to have asked Iraqis whether they thought it made sense for Americans to mortgage their country's entire foreign and national security policy to an effort to keep Arabs from killing one another. Or if borrowing $9 billion a month from the Chinese central bank to make this effort successful was worth the interest the United States will have to pay on the money.

I have no doubt that someone will attempt to use a survey of Iraqi opinion as a debating point in some discussion connected with the Presidential campaign and filling air time on one of the cable networks. I'd be (mildly) surprised if any of the candidates mentioned it; I'm quite confident that few voters will care.

The Bush admninstration made the decision that the really vital issue facing American foreign policy was the future of one, mid-sized Arab country and its people. Given that assumption, of course a survey of Iraqi public opinion is of great interest. Absent that assumption, it's barely a footnote.

[greg]

I basically agree with Zathras, and I'm amazed there are still readers who seem to live in la-la land.

Frankly, it really doesn't matter what the opinion polls in Iraq say, or even what the polls in the US say. Our economy is melting down.

WE CAN'T AFFORD THIS, PEOPLE. WE HAVE TO LEAVE.

[Peter H]

Regarding the issue of demographics, this is what Anthony Cordesman of CSIS wrote back in October 2007:

There seems to be no official US or Iraqi government “guesstimate” of the country’s Sunni vs. Shiite Arab populations, and no single authoritative source of empirical data on the subject. The most commonly cited estimate is an unsourced reference in the CIA World Factbook...According to the factbook, 60-65 percent of Iraqis are Shiite Muslims, 15-20 percent Kurds and three percent non-Muslims. Although it is not explicitly stated in the CIA Factbook, that leaves room for 12 to 22 percent Sunni Arabs.

While it is not certain what the CIA source is, according to the ABC poll:

“This estimate may derive from a 1988 book, “Iraq: a Country Study” produced by the Federal Research Division, Library of Congress. This book (pp. 80-81) characterizes data on ethnicity and religious doctrine in Iraq as “not absolutely reliable.” It says, “Officially the government sets the number of Shias at 55 percent. In the 1980s knowledgeable observers began to question this figure, regarding it as low. …a morereasonable estimate of their number would seem to be between 60 and 65 percent.” It adds, “…the Sunni Arabs…constitute a decided
minority of only about 13 percent...” These data also are unsourced. The 60-65 percent Shiite estimate matches that in the CIA World Factbook; the 13 percent Sunni Arab estimate compares to the World Factbook’s unstated range of 12 to 22 percent.”

The August ABC survey found that Iraqis identified themselves as 48 percent Shiite Arab, 33 percent Sunni Arab, 16 percent Kurdish and three percent other D3 Systems reports that its previous surveys found that Shiite Arabs ranged from the high 40s to low 50s, and Sunni Arabs in a range from the high 20s to mid-30s. The 35 percent Sunni Arab estimate in this poll is at the high end of its previous data, but within that range. This poll had more sampling points than any previous individual national study in Iraq by D3/KARL.