Iraqi amnesty bill

A lot of people have linked to the story that Sunni VP Tareq al-Hashemi says he will veto the controversial deBaathification reform law (something reported in al-Quds al-Arabi a week ago).   This responds to intense Sunni antipathy generated by the ambiguities and perceived intent of the legislation; Hashemi claims that the whole Presidency Council agreed.   For those who argue - with reason - that legislative benchmarks are overrated, and that the real point should be the substance of reconciliation among communities, Hashemi's explanation should be particularly telling:  "We cannot regard this law as a step in the national reconciliation process. The spirit of revenge is so clear in many articles of the law." 

The floundering of another reconciliation legislative initiative has received less attention:  an amnesty bill proposed by the Maliki government. The issue of Sunni prisoners gets little discussion in the US, but it ranks very high on the list of Sunni political concerns. (Despite the occasional brain-beggaring article about the wonders of new American re-education techniques... go figure.  Abu Ghuwhat? And then there's the Brits... )  By most accounts, the number of prisoners has surged over the last year, along with other surges.  The most commonly cited number of prisoners is 44,000, which includes 25,000 in US prisons, 83% of them Sunni;  al-Jazeera used the figure 49,000 and some accounts exceed 50,000;   nobody seems to know for sure. 

In early December, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's people began talking of their intention of declaring a general amnesty for large numbers of prisoners on the occasion of the Eid.  This was a hopeful sign.   When it didn't happen, on December 26 Iraqi government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh announced that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki would soon submit a general amnesty bill, which he did.  Even careful observers, including Ambassador Ryan Crocker, have offered this as evidence of momentum towards reconciliation - and, if implemented correctly, it really would be. 

But then it got bogged down in Parliament, where so many ideas about Iraqi national reconciliation go to die or mutate.  Today, al-Hayat reported that an unusual five party alliance  including 100 MPs attacked the amnesty bill.  (The five parties are themselves an interesting mix:  The Accordance Front and Dialogue Front, ISCI, the Iraqi List (Allawi), and the Sadrist trend.  Can you imagine the dinner conversation?).  One of the key issues:  they want the amnesty to include prisoners in American military prisons as well as those in Iraqi prisons.   Another:  they want compensation for prisoners who were never convicted of a crime.  Without that, warned one MP, it could not be a general amnesty and would not be considered a step towards reconciliation. 

The Iraqi government is reportedly working on a new draft to accomodate their concerns - though I haven't seen confirmation.  This raises some interesting questions.  Such an amnesty, if implemented across the board in a fair and responsible fashion, could indeed be an important step towards resolving major grievances... althought it might also backfire by putting resentful, insurgency-age young men back on to the streets.  Were such a law passed - demanding the release of prisoners held in US facilities and compensation for those not convicted of a crime -  would the United States honor it?  If not, how could the Iraqi government proceed?  Something of an interesting test of the proposition that there exists a sovereign Iraq...  and one more variable for us all to think about.

Comments

[Nur al-Cubicle]

If indeed the Iraq government is preparing an assault on both Dilaya and Mosul, there will soon be hundreds more Sunnis in the prisons. I was shocked when I learned the the Soviets had kept some German POWs (mostly officers) interned until 1962. The internment of thousands of Sunni/Shia prisoners by the US may last as long, for the Baghdad government, dominated by the Kurds and Shia, doesn't give a damn.

[Charles Cameron (hipbone)]

Hi Marc:

You sound less than enthused about Gen. Stone's efforts to "re-educate" Islamist radicals:

Despite the occasional brain-beggaring article about the wonders of new American re-education techniques... go figure. Abu Ghuwhat?

I'd be interested in your views on various similar attempts made by Muslims themselves, either in person -- e.g. dialogs initiated by the National Dialogue Committee in Yemen, the Religious Rehabilitation Group in Singapore and the Advisory Committee of the Saudi Ministry of Interior -- or in writing -- e.g. Sayyed Imam Al-Sharif's *Document of Right Guidance for Jihad Activity in Egypt and the World* (which I gather is fairly mild in its critique but comes from a major Al-Qaida ideologue who now "considers 9-11 a sin" as MEMRI puts it), the (UK) Ihsanic Intelligence group's fatwa against suicide martyrdom, *The Hijacked Caravan*, or Muhammad Haniff Hassan's book, *Unlicensed to Kill: Countering Imam Samudra's Justification for the Bali Bombing* and for that matter Nasir Abas, *Unveiling Jemaah Islamiyah*.

Daniel Dennett, in a fascinating talk he gave at TED, suggested that the way to deal with toxic "memes" is to encourage the growth of non-toxic variants, and these would seem to be examples of precisely that approach.

[aardvark]

It's a good question - yeah, I'm very, very skeptical of all of the "re-education camp" concepts, whether in Yemen, Saudi or Iraq. Re-education camps just have major totalitarian connotations, and very dubious effectiveness - especially when combined, in Iraq case, with prisoners caught up in street sweeps. Ideological challenge from within Islamist camps, that's very important - the Dr Fadl review of jihad for instance generated a real stir in some of the right places (I wrote about it a few months back). But that's really an entirely different thing than the prison education camps. That said, I haven't blogged much about it because I want to get more info first.

[smintheus]

The very odd information related in the WaPo by Walter Pincus suggests that the standards the military is applying in staffing these re-education camps are pretty low. If things run true to course, they'll either get nobody willing to work in them, or end up hiring contractors with too many similarities to Blackwater types.

Very interesting stuff, Marc.

[bb]

Following the Abu Grhaib scandal the US stopped detaining young Sunni males in significant numbers with the result that the insurgent attacks on Shiite civilians and police sharply escalated during 05 and 06. This in turn culminated in the brutal, targeted retaliation against young Sunni males by the Mahdi army from April 06 onwards. And this in turn led to the flight of hundreds of thousands of Sunni middleclass and professional families to the neighbouring countries.

Since the US and ISF surge, the change in the ROEs, the offensives against the Sunni insurgents and the re-impositon of detention of those caught during the offensives, insurgent attacks against Shiite civilians have decreased dramatically, so has the murder of young Sunni males by the Mahdis, and the Sunni middle class families have begun to return to Baghdad.

It is probably therefore not surprising that the amnesty legislation has got bogged down in the Parliament. Those unusual dinner party guests would surely each have good reasons not to want to return to the pre 2005 status quo at this stage of proceedings - ie until AlqI has been driven out of Iraq?

[thomas]

Quote of the Week:
“This went through committee... People should pay attention to what they are discussing and voting on.” - Ahmad Chalabi

This week's quote is certainly up there with last week's... by none other than Ahmad Chalabi.
"Put this under the category of: Be careful what you wish for."

When will this guy ever go away?!?!?! Hasn't he already done enough damage to the country of Iraq?!?!?

[Charlie]

Marc:

Not on topic, but I remember you posting when Nathan Krissoff, a Marine and one of your students at Williams, was killed in Iraq. I saw this incredible story about his Dad and thought you would be interested.

http://instapinch.com/?p=857

Charlie

[nur al-cubicle]

You all saw this of course, in relation to the oil law.

http://www.akhbar-alkhaleej.com/arc_Articles.asp?Article=221558&Sn=WORL&IssueID=10903

[MSK]

Nur,

We've been over this Akhbar al-Khaleej story already over at Josh Landis' blog. Akhbar al-Khaleej is not a reputable source. Period. They make up "stories" all the time, including fictitious writers, interviews, and data. They are as reliable as Kuwait's Al-Siyasah ...

I'm sorry to see that you've fell for them.

Cheers,

--MSK*