Awakenings Agonistes

There are more and more signs of the Awakenings strategy hitting turbulence, if not going off the rails.  The drumbeat of assassinations of Awakenings leaders and attacks on their men continues.  Joseph Galloway reported yesterday of the growing tension over allegations that Shia militias are behind the recent upsurge of attacks.  Patrick Cockburn reported from Falluja that an important local commander warned that if his people aren't integrated into the Iraqi military and police in three months they are prepared to stand down and let al-Qaeda back in.   The Anbar Salvation Council declared that it would not fly the new Iraqi flag, meaning that for a while these local militias would literally be operating under a different flag than the national institutions from which they remain excluded.  Today, al-Hayat reports that 230 Awakenings fighters north of Baghdad quit because they hadn't been paid in two months.   And then, there's been a series of public eruptions between Anbar Salvation Council leaders and between the ASC and the Baghdad-based Awakening militias. 

Here's the story, as reported by al-Hayat.  ASC leader Ahmed Abu Risha blasted Shaykh Hamed al-Hayes, another prominent Anbar Salvation Council leader, for announcing that there would be a conference of some 3,000 members of Awakening and Salvation Councils from all over Iraq to establish a new political body called Thowar al-Iraq (which could be translated as the 'The Insurgents (or Revolutionaries) of Iraq'...  something of an intriguing choice, given the tensions between the tribal leaders and the insurgency factions within the Awakenings trend).    Al-Hayes, Abu Risha told al-Hayat, had no right to hold any conference or do any project in the name of the Awakening without consulting the ASC.  Abu Risha said that they did plan to hold such a conference for the movement's 125 Councils, but had not yet set a date or adopted that agenda.  At the same time, Abu Risha said that he had sought an arrest warrant against Mohammed Said al-'Enzi, for claiming to be the commander of an Awakening Council in Baghdad without the approval of the ASC.  This sounds like a real power struggle - and one which is likely rooted in the generally-understood difference between the Anbar Awakenings (more dominated by the tribal forces) and the Baghdad ones (which appear to be more dominated by insurgency factions).

As always, one shouldn't read too much into any one story, but reports like these need to be taken into account as potential indicators of where we're heading. 

Oh, by the way, multiple press reports a few days ago claimed that Maliki has promised to form a new, smaller "national unity" government within a week (less than that now), and that the Accordance Front is ready to return.  We shall see. 

Comments

[Derfel64]

The Awakening/police forces in Fallujah also seem rather apart from that of Ramadi, isn´t it?It seems that tribal factions (which are in Ramadi and most of Anbar) are willing to reach an agreement with the Americans and perhaps even the Iraqi government, but insurgent-dominated factions (which are in the mixed sunni-shia areas and north of Baghdad as i understand) are giving more trouble.

You must have heard of the Islamic Army rocket attack in Fallujah. It could be the beginning of a new round of insurgency or perhaps they just want publicity. But anyway it´s troubling that the security forces in the area do nothing in the aftermath, the Islamic Army even circulated flyers in Fallujah about the attack! This seems like a way of putting pressure in the Americans, such as, "if you don´t begin to withdraw and make as we say, there will be more of this".

There seem to be no meaningful talks or negotiations between the Americans and the insurgents other than at the very local level (you know, the "a sheik reached us because he was sick of al-Qaeda and wanted to make peace with us" story repeated over and over in recent months). Given this and that Bush seems now to be readying the US for a looooong stay in Iraq, most likely attacks will steadily escalate i think, although both sides have an interest in not leveling Fallujah or any other town in fighting again.

Anyway the Islamic Army has now started to back up his claims of attacks with videos again. And even though it isn´t related, the Mahdi Army also is now more busy again putting IEDs in Baghdad.

The American leadership must have realized that this is still an open war and prepares to a open-ended stay in Iraq. We´ll have to wait to the next president to see meaningful changes.

[Derfel64]

And of course the list of incidents would be much longer, there have been many "misterious" attacks in the area around fadhil (with a checkpoint every 10 metres or so and not exactly an "al-qaeda safehaven"), first the Awakening leader of Fadhil was killed in "clashes with gunmen" in Jadriya, since then there are sporadic gun and bomb attacks against iraqi army and police. Of course after these attacks nobody has been rounded up, so one should be wondering, who the heck is infiltrated enough in the heart of the city to carry them out?

Also, since the Iraqi security forces are a main source for news agencies there are many other things, in the end we know in part what they want us to know. A favorite tactic is to blame whatever explosion on a suicide bomber. A month or two ago there was a suicide bombing against police checkpoint in Ghazaliya according to AP/police, but later the Ghazaliya Guardians said that the same day a bomb had killed 6 of their members! They didn´t mention the suicide, and they said the explosion was so close to an Iraqi Army checkpoint that their trust on the army had been completely broken and were considering going after the militias on their own and not allow any other force enter their area. Yesterday the same story, according to Americans a roadside bombing leaves wounded soldiers in an Ameriyah checkpoint, according to iraqis a suicide bomber kills women in the same spot ¿?¿?¿?

BTW excuse me if i repeat myself xD, it´s because i don´t know what i´ve already said in this blog since i write from time to time. Anyway good job, and excuse me if there are any mistakes, i´m spaniard.

[alle]

excuse me if there are any mistakes, i´m spaniard.

For starters, it's "I'm from Barcelona".

[bb]

The story about the Islamic Army and Fallujah is curious. According to Michael Totten who is just back from Fallujah there are only 250 marines left there and the IA has been redeployed from the city, leaving it to the control of the police. So is the IA taking advantage of this to wrest control of the city for itself? If so and they look like suceeding, won't the marines and IA just go back retake the city?

On the face of it, it looks like a straight out power grab on the ISI's behalf and it is unlikely the Iraqi govt would stand by and do nothing.

[Voter]

If you could vote in the US election, who would you vote for?

[Voter]

http://www.whatifweallvoted.com/

[JHM]

This sounds like a real power struggle . . . .

It does?

No doubt it all depends what sort of Power is to count as Real, but here the two most obvious candidates seem excluded from the race.

(1) If M. ar-Rísha possessed R.P. in the Hollywood or Godfather sense, he would not bother about arrest warrants at all.

(2) Next comes the Max Weber sense. In that case, M. ar-Rísha would possess a monopoly of violence and not merely an exclusive trademark. I.e., he could write out the arrest warrant himself and then send out a tribal flunky to execute it.

In fact -- or anyway, in the newspaper story -- M. ar-Rísha has to go to somebody else to seek his writ, and though he may ask for an arrest warrant to be issued, he's not likely to get more than a restraining order against M. al-Háyis and other Baní Sahwa™ wannabes and copycats. If he even gets that.

[igre]

Maliki will do it and win it ;)