Second Date

What, no kiss?  On the second date?  Photo:  al-Hayat

Very few media outlets in the US seem to have noticed, but Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmednejad and Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah were back together again the other day on the occasion of the Hajj.  Ahmednejad's surprising appearance at the Gulf Cooperation Council summit in early December had set off something of a frenzy of media discussion about whether it meant a possible reconciliation between Iran and its Arab Gulf neighbors.   A range of commentators (both officials and pundits) had rushed to pour cold water on those hopes/fears, emphasizing lack of agreement on issues over the sheer fact of the public engagement.  Shortly after the Iranian President's visit to Doha, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates led a significant American delegation to an Arab security meeting in Bahrain to rally the Gulf Arabs against the Iranian threat and to re-energize a collective strategy of containment.  This second public meeting - reportedly at the Saudi King's initiative -  suggests that the Gulf Arab approach to Iran really is shifting despite these American efforts.  Whatever the private fears of Iran by Gulf leaders and elites (which by all accounts, including my own conversations, are quite real), this very recent Gulf Arab trend from containment towards engagement of Iran seems real.   Worth paying close attention to, particularly given how such a rapprochement could rebound in places like Iraq and Lebanon - and, of course, Washington.  It's interesting, by the way, that the Ahmednejad-Abdullah meeting was covered prominently by al-Hayat but largely ignored by al-Sharq al-Awsat (both major Arab papers owned by Saudi princes) - suggesting at least the possibility of some internal conflict between members of the royal family on the issue.

Ahmednejad on the Hajj - really, an amazing photo, courtesy of al-Quds al-Arabi

It's also worth noting that this wasn't just an (extraordinary) diplomatic get-together.  Ahmedjnejad's invitation to the religious occasion comes in the context of the deep anti-Shia sentiment which runs through much of the Saudi religious establishment (and the oft-heated Sunni-Shia political issues in Saudi Arabia itself).   That picture above, which ran in al-Quds al-Arabi, is rather eye-catching.   It has recently struck me that this year we're seeing nothing comparable to the Sunni-Shia hysteria which swept through the Arab world around this time last year (after Saddam's execution).  So the changes which seem to be taking place at the level of high politics (i.e. Ahmednejad's visits to the GCC meeting and to Saudi Arabia) are being mirrored at the public cultural level too. 

To be updated later when I have the chance to look over the Arabic press for commentary... and, in other news, I'm still frightfully busy. 

Comments

[greg]

I have to think the Saudis and others have concluded that putting all your eggs in the Bush administration's basket is kind of a bad idea.

[Philippe de Rougemont]

It seems the Saudis, at least some, are finally understanding the division and disruption of the Middle East is not an accident but an intention of the BushCheney administration. If the arabs understand this more and more, if they really do, and if this goes noticed in Washington, that might be the best medecine against an attack on Iran.
Then again, Bush and Co. are known to ignore what they do'nt like in the news and go ahead with their own plans, whatever reality tells them.

[masalha1]

Is it just weird coincidence? all of the sudden the CIA report comes out regarding the Iranian nuclear program, then the Iranians and the Saudis head of states meet twice in less than a month, Egypt is flirting with Tahran trying to re establish diplomatic ties, things are calming down in Iraq.
All of this and more is not coincidental something is COOKING, Arab leaders can't make these moves without the blessing of Mr. Bush and his gang, they simply don't have the courage to do that.
The question is why the US is easing on Iran?

[Non-Arab Arab]

Masalha1: Don't buy into the myth of Washington omnipotence/omniscience or the total puppethood of Arab leaders. There is certainly more than a grain of truth in both stereotypes, but neither are absolute. If you want to see the real proof of Saudi-Iranian cooperation, look at the relative calm in Iraq. That is far more Saudi and Iranian doing than it is American "surge". You think the Sahwas got all their cash and guns from the American? I don't think so, look south across the desert. You think Sadr suddenly decided cooling his heals was a brilliant idea? I don't think so, look east across the mountains. Riyadh and Tehran may not be omnipotent either, but they know when they can pull some mighty heavy strings and right now the goal is to try to get these bumbling Americans out by letting them think they've won and "declare victory". Their own interests are at stake here, and as with most realist politics that involves a mixture of cohabitation and separation with foes and friends alike.

http://nonarab-arab.blogspot.com/2007/12/brief-thoughts-on-iraq.html

[masalha1]

Non-Arab,
Although, only God has that total power and knowledge, however Mr. Bush and his gang think they do too, so I wonder is it a myth or reality?
I hope your analysis is true, it would be wonderfull to see leaders of this region start thinking about their own people's interest, ... we'll see about that.

[Jay C]

N-A A: "...right now the goal is to try to get these bumbling Americans out by letting them think they've won and "declare victory". Their own interests are at stake here..."

Quite, right, IMO. After six years of watching (although, to be sure, NOT as passively as the clueless US media might think) the US make a monumental FUBAR of Middle East policy, the local/regional players are, I think, finally leaning on their own levers of influence (money, mostly) to try to cool down regional tensions: which, of course, are notoriously bad for business. And I also think they will have a hell of a lot better chance at "success" than the incompetent clownshow that is the GW Bush Administration.

Great job, neocons! Your bold daring Great Game Master Plan for "remaking" the Mideast has merely led to us being played by our enemies, AND played by our "friends"! So that they can make their own deals for the region which we'll have no choice but to sign on to! Heckuva job guys!

[Badger]

Yikes! forgive the off-topic, but the Jordanian Al-Arab al-Yom piece you thumbnailed today (Dec 24) on the plan to overthrow Maliki is lifted pretty much verbatim from the Haroun Mohammed piece on p 19 of Al-Quds al-Arabi of Dec 21, same phrases and everything. The difference is that where MH said the US would need to commit to withdrawal etc to get the necessary Baath participation (and only implied that Maliki could be replaced under this scheme), the Jordanian piece in effect claims he will be replaced under the new US scheme.

[Badger]

I beg your pardon, the Haroun Mohammed original of that piece was on p 19 Dec 20, not Dec 21, the still-existing pdf link is here

[Non-Arab Arab]

Masalha1:
"I hope your analysis is true, it would be wonderfull to see leaders of this region start thinking about their own people's interest, ... we'll see about that."

Just a correction here as it apparently wasn't clear: I'm not talking about "their own people's interest", I'm talking about *their* - i.e., these rulers' - interests. Sometimes that may juxtapose nicely with "the people's" interests, other times be totally divergent. If the history of the Gulf (or for that matter, just about any place) is an indicator, the two are in a constant dance of convergence and divergence. One needs to watch one's back when dealing with elites and rulers, be they foreign or domestic.