Ahmednejad and the Gulf

Saudi King Abdullah and Iranian President Ahmednejad (photo: al-Quds al-Arabi)

The Iran news dominating the US press today is the revelation of the NIE findings that Iran froze its nuclear program in 2003.  That's obviously interesting and important.  But - perhaps related, perhaps not - most Arab papers today are headlining the surprising and controversial performance of Iranian President Ahmednejad at the GCC Summit meeting in Doha - described in most as the first Iranian President to address the GCC since it was formed in 1981.  This was not uncontroversial.  Tareq Alhomayed, editor of al-Sharq al-Awsat (which often reflects official Saudi thinking), notes caustically that the GCC was formed to meet the Iranian threat, and nothing has changed with Ahmednejad - who should not have been invited at all.   The UAE's foreign minister said that Iran asked to be invited, and Qatar passed on the request - though al-Sharq al-Awsat quotes another unidentified Gulf official saying that they had not known he would be there.   

After several years of rising tension between Iran and the Gulf state and American attempts to contain Iran with a counter-alliance of "moderate Sunni Arab states",  Ahmednejad's appearance certainly does raise eyebrows.  Ahmednejad downplayed contentious issues such as Iran's role in Iraq and its nuclear program, instead offering a 12 point plan for an ambitious new regional security alliance - essentially, a GCC + 1 arrangement incorporating Iran into the existing Gulf security architecture - and for greater economic cooperation and investment with new joint economic institutions. (Buried in the reporting focused on Iran was the note that the GCC did not act on the rumored plan to sever its reliance on the American dollar). 

While Ahmednejad's appearance has to be seen as something of a diplomatic coup in the face of US-led efforts at containment, it's unlikely that the initiative will go anywhere right now.  The most contentious issues (Iraq, the nuclear program) were largely ignored.   Al-Hayat quoted an anonymous Gulf official as seeing nothing new in the call for greater cooperation and no answers on the contentious and worrisome security issues.  Other officials dismissed the ideas as "utopian" and unrealistic.   Al-Jazeera reports that Kuwait welcomed the Iranian initiative, but wants to see concrete actions and responses to outstanding controversial issues.  The UAE delegation was unhappy with Iran's participation because of their outstanding dispute over three islands in the Gulf, and Al-Arabiya reports that the final declaration says that unfortunately the contacts with Iran had no positive results with regard to that point.  Ahmednejad's reference to the "Persian" rather than "Arabian" Gulf reportedly ruffled some feathers.  Still, the more conciliatory line taken by al-Sharq al-Awsat's former editor and current directory of al-Arabiya Abd al-Rahman al-Rashed is worth noting - he suggests that the GCC states could help protect their current $100 a barrel oil windfall by bridging the conflict between the US and Iran.   

Overall, it seems to  me that the main significance of Ahmednejad's appearance is the appearance itself, and what it might signify about the future of the containment/confrontation strategy, not any concrete or immediate results from his proposals.  I'd be interested to hear from Gulf or Iran analysts about how this is playing and developing - comment away!

Comments

[Moloch-Agonistes]

Nothing constructive to add, but am moved to comment: Abdullah's "beard" looks so totally absurd on a septuagenarian. It can't be real. Is it possible that he's actually Dick Cheney? Also: can you imagine Bush and Chavez holding hands at a regional conference? Talk about culture clash--maybe a war of civilizations really is inevitable.

[Dido]

I almost did a doubletake - Ahmednejad at the GCC summit? And good luck with the joint economic endeavors with the GCC, they could use the help.

[Chatty Kathy]

How long before Ahmednejad starts citing the latest NIE? Has he already started?

[Luce Imaginary]

Marc, off topic, I know but is there any chance you could try and suss out what's going on with the plan to induct a chunk of the so-called "awakening" movement into local security forces. Seems like there has been more movement on that lately, which is funny because just 2 days ago I was reading comments by government officials warning how dangerous it would be.

I don't know whether to take it seriously, or to just assume its one of the many promises the government makes to the Americans that it has no intentions of keeping.

[An Iranian Patriot]

Hello dear
This is a Persian liberal patriot, writing to you from the coasts of eternal Persian Gulf that never could be replaced with a forged so-called a.r.a.b gulf… maybe you have heard something about the immoral and unprofessional action of Yahoo that removed the name of our country from its list of countries in sign up pages. In order to protest this strange measure, we are trying to order a global project named "Hello Yahoo Mail" in which we use to remove our accounts and IDs from Yahoo and try to use Gmail services instead. Here I invite you to visit our project page at http://helloyahoomail.net and tell me about your views by commenting within my personal blog at http://cyberfaith.blogspot.com
Hail to eternal Persian gulf that remains Persian forever and hail to triple Iranian islands in the coasts of eternal Persian gulf… peace be upon you, Iran and Persian gulf…

Ahmadenijad's presence is indeed an interesting development, difficult to glean what exactly it means right now and where it will lead the GCC-Iranian relationship. For certain the Gulf states are not united in their approach to dealing with Ahmadenijad and Iran's intentions, Iran will most likely attempt to exploit this disarray and drive wedges between individual members. The Gulf states have become weary of U.S. policy in the region after total U.S. disregard for the Gulf states interests in waging the war in Iraq. However, the Gulf states are highly unlikely to break with the system of bi-lateral agreements that pax-Americana in the Gulf consists of. When you wrote Abu that "The most contentious issues (Iraq, the nuclear program) were largely ignored" I couldn't help but think of the Omani approach to relations with Iran, working together on issues they have in common with Iran while shirking those that can cause fissures, classic Omani diplomacy. However, with a country like Iran that certainly has aspirations for the 'Persian' Gulf, it will be interesting to see how the Gulf states, especially the Saudis, will walk this tight rope appeasing and talking with an Iran seeking to break out of its containment in the Gulf and threaten the status quo and the security foundations of the Arab Gulf states.

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