Abu Risha murdered

I was in the middle of putting the finishing touches on an short piece about Iraqi Sunni politics due out later today when I got an urgent flash that Abd al-Sattar Abu Risha had been murdered in Anbar.  Nothing could have been more predictable than the murder of Abu Risha, the man most closely identified with America's Anbar strategy.  He was the public face of the turn against al-Qaeda, and Petraeus immediately said that "it shows Al Qaeda in Iraq remains a very dangerous and barbaric enemy."  But there's no reason to assume that al-Qaeda killed him - I'd guess that one of the nationalist insurgency groups, the ones which current American rhetoric pretends don't exist -  is a more likely suspect.  Other tribes deeply resented him.  The major nationalist insurgency groups had recently issued a series of statements denouncing people who would illegitimately seize the fruits of their victorious jihad - of whom he was the prime example.  All those photographs which swamped the Arab media showing him shaking hands with President Bush made him even more a marked man than before.   

His murder graphically demonstrates that the other groups threatened by the American Anbar strategy were never going to just sit back passively and allow it to succeed - an obvious strategic point which has always seemed to elude surge advocates.  The Sunni strategy as presented by surge advocates has always rested not only on a whole series of dubious claims about Iraqi Sunni politics, but also relies on a whole series of best-case scenarios in which nothing could go wrong.  In Iraq, something always goes wrong.      

It's a major setback for the strategy, particularly at the symbolic level.    Even if Abu Risha was a poor choice to "lead" the strategy, he was in fact elevated to that symbolic position by American propaganda and practice (that meeting with the President, for instance).  His murder demonstrates that even America's closest friends are not untouchable - not even on the day of a Presidential address expected to rely heavily on progress in Anbar.  The political fallout of the murder inside of Iraq may well exceed Abu Risha's actual role in Sunni politics.   

More later.

UPDATE: Nobody has yet claimed responsibility for the assassination.   According to an Iraqi blogger, Abu Risha's tribal rival Ali Hatem Sulayman blamed al-Qaeda for the assassination during an al-Arabiya interview (I didn't see it).    The insurgency's forums are joyous, with "Allahu Akbars" everywhere.  Virtually every story, whether in sympathetic or hostile Iraqi outlets, features the same pictures of Abu Risha with Bush.    The al-Boraq forum, which runs statements from all factions but is currently hosted on the server of the Islamic Army of Iraq, features a post which praises God for the killing:  "the mujahideen promised and they delivered."   One posting on the al-Falojah forum asks "what has happened to us Iraqis, that we celebrate the killing of one of our brothers?" - but receives little sympathy in the comments which follow. 

The most telling reaction:  the Anbar Salvation Council itself is publicly pointing the finger at the Maliki government.  So much for "bottom-up reconciliation":  the first instinct of America's chosen Sunni interlocutors, and the core of "bottom up reconciliation", is to blame the Shia-led national government for the murder of their leader.   

Comments

[Abu Sinan]

Interesting. I wonder if the US will give this any coverage considering Bush just met the guy and shook his hand recently.

[Peter Principle]

Once again, Bush shows his knack for getting people killed. Typhoid Mary had nothing on this guy.

[Adrian]

Thanks for your thoughts. I posted mine at my blog.

Ironic, as Abu Risha had told 'terrorists' to, essentially, "bring it on."

Petreaus automatically blamed AQI, but I don't see why that would be. Haven't seen any claim of responsibility, which I would assume AQI would post immediately.

Do you see any person as the natural successor as the symbolic head of the Salvation Council?

[Jerry]

CNN's Web site has a short article on this: http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/meast/09/13/iraq.killing/index.html
They don't place blame on any certain group, but they do only mention AQI. Here's a sample paragraph: "Abu Reesha was a prime target for al Qaeda militants and other terrorist groups because of his visible alliance with the U.S. coalition."

Nothing on NPR's Web site yet.

I heard about this while listening to the BBC News program on my local NPR station. Whoever they spoke with warned people not to be too hasty to blame AQI as Abu Risha had plenty of rivals and enemies in the area.

[Zathras]

The first fruits of this "victorious jihad" were the ethnic cleansing of Sunnis from neighborhoods all over Baghdad and the institutionalization of Shiite death squads in the Iraqi national police. At the end of the day these Sunni Arab insurgent groups congratulating themselves on their great victory are even less able to protect Sunni Arab civilians than the American army is. But, they can still kill their personal and tribal enemies, which makes everything right in that part of the world.

To think we have our guys sticking their necks out for these people just because George Bush wants to be able to retire and leave the task of winding up Iraq to someone else.

[Tom Scudder]

First name that pops into my head hearing about this is Bashir Gemayel.

[nur al-cubicle]

I hear there was a rocket attack on Camp Victory today, and this time Petraeus blamed th Shi'ites.

[Saeed Uri]

So no one thinks it could have been Shia's? Don't you think they would really want this guy dead? I think it is very plausible since they are really mad at the new Alliance of Anbar that has formed between the Americans and the Sunnis. I bet they are hoping for a power struggle to ensure to weaken the Sunni's even further. Any thoughts?

[Tom Scudder]

Could be Shi'ah, I guess, but they'd be less likely to have the ability to kill him in the middle of Ramadi.

[alle]

tom s. -- yeah, and tomorrow it's 25 years since he died too. but let's hope the similarities stop there.

[jonst]

Could be anyone...could be within his own small circle if he was playing fast with the large amounts of American money my guess is he just got.

[HD]

The New York Times has this headlined online, and in the article has switched the nomenclature to "Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia". I haven't seen this before. What does this signify?

[smintheus]

HD, it means that the Times cannot distinguish between the current war and the British Mesopotamian campaign during WWI. Maybe that's because we keep hearing about generals being optimistic; the tide finally turning; evanescent "progress"; one last big push to win the war. That and all those nasty chemical weapons, the falsified casualty statistics, and so forth.

So far, btw, we can thank our lucky stars that we're not seeing trench warfare in Iraq.

[Question]

You seem almost happy that Abu Risha was killed...

[Non-Arab Arab]

HD: The name of the organization in Arabic translates more correctly in English to "The Al-Qaeda Organization in the Land of the Two Rivers" - i.e. "In Mesopotamia". The direct translation is a bit of a mouthful and "Mesopotamia" sounds so abtiquated in English so I'm guessing that's why English press has come to prefer "in Iraq" and "AQI" for brevity. However, Al-Qaeda likes these names that don't use modern state names for their local organizations, presumably because they reject modern states and their boundaries and adhere to the notion of a pan-Islamic government. So for example, in Algeria the organization there calls themselves Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb (while al-Maghreb is the Arabic name of the modern state of Morocco it's older and still-existing broader usage refers to all of Islamic northwest Africa). I forget the title they used for Egypt, but a variant there recently used some other old title for Egypt along the same lines (i.e., "Al-Qaeda Organization in the land of...). Again somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe in Saudi they call themselves the Al-Qaeda Organization in the Arabian Peninsula, obviously having a very deep beef with a kingdom named after one family even more than just any given state.

[gil]

Abu Risha's killing can also be interpreted as a message for Bush from al-Quaida.

You know this is hardly ever said, but a future Mr. Bush the retired Ex-President, will have to be given a special extra protection detail by the Secret Service for life.

Bush is not the only one with a long memory and a vengeful streak--- Muslim Jihadist are world class in that department.

Good luck Bush-- You are going to need it.

[NEWSDESK HELSINKI FINLAND]

Thank you again, Marc ;)

We just read your story and updated that taking notice of your helpful investigations. The stuff - of course available to all those interested - is here:

IRAQ: Resistance IEDs the PM of the "Federal State of Iraq" in a pre-emptive strike (Updated)

[almasrisux]

just another classic case of jahadi intimidation. sunnis in western iraq are begining to recognize that while we will eventually leave, al qeada is here to stay and impose it,s will not only in anbar but diyala as well. The killing of al Risha was a warning to other tribal leaders that this your fate when you cooperate with the americans. Nor will it stop with his death. Even though AQI has brought anbar nothing but misery, their world view is extemely narrow and will continue to cast them as apostates when their only goal is to ease the suffering of their people.

[Jessie Brooks]

What is it about the Arabs that really gets me.....oh, that's right.......they seem to never get enough killing - even amongst themselves. I have always been facinated with the Middle East, however, the mystery has run its course. I believe the US Army should pack up and leave Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and every other country we are in and let them fend for themselves. We give BILLIONS to other countries, annually, and let our own people suffer. Let the Arab nations kill one another, who cares. Let them preach about Islam, jihad - and let their multitude of 'serial killers try and convince civilized societies that they have the answer and the right God.

The Arab nations remind me of children, throwing their toys out of their pram, when they don't get their way. Or killing ANYBODY when someone disagrees with them.

Let's get out of Arabia and let them kill themselves - the world will be a better place.