Lebanese public opinion

Zogby International and Shibley Telhami have just released findings from the Lebanon portion of their annual survey of Arab public opinion [PDF file].  The methodology on this one (unlike the al-Arabiya/YouGov one I mentioned yesterday) seems reasonably solid;  carried out November 11-16, 600 respondents, margin of error 4.1%.  All the results are broken down along sectarian lines (Shiite, Sunni, Christian, and Druze).   Here are some of the key findings:

• Attitudes towards the United States remain very unfavorable.  Overall, 26% are very or somewhat favorable, 13% are somewhat unfavorable, and 52% very unfavorable.  96% of Shia, have unfavorable views of the US (87% very unfavorable) and  69% of Sunnis (52% very);  while the US as expected remains more popular among Christians (50% favorable) and Druze (60% favorable).
• Every community says by wide margins that their attitudes are most shaped by US policies rather than US values, and every community overwhelmningly identifies the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as the primary policy area:  71% total say that brokering a comprehensive peace agreement with Israeli withdrawal to the 1967 border would be the single step most likely to improve their views of the US. 
• Nobody has much confidence in the US:  60% overall say they have no confidence at all (92% of Shia and 58% of Sunnis).  And nobody believes that Bush is serious about spreading democracy (64% total, including 84% of Shia, 66% of Sunnis, 42% of Christians and 43% of Druze say that "democracy is not a real US objective.")
• who is the biggest winner of the Lebanon-Israel war?  47% of Shia said Hezbollah, 4% said Israel, and 39% said the Lebanese people;  that compares to the total figures of 15% saying Israel, 35% saying Hezbollah, and 26% saying the Lebanese people.   Christians were most likely to say Israel (25%) and the least likely to say Hezbollah (22%), while the Sunnis were the least likely to say "the Lebanese people" (15%).  Who is the biggest loser of the Lebanon-Israel war?  71% of Shia say Israel;  53% of Sunnis, 42% of Christians, and 59% of Druze say the Lebanese people.  No community sees Hezbollah as the biggest loser (only 19% of Christians say so, and that's the most). Finally, since the war, 68% of Shia say that their attitudes towards Hezbollah have become more positive, compared to only 23% of Sunnis, 22% of Christians, and 21% of Druze.
• asked what would happen if the US quickly withdrew its forces from Iraq, 12% of Lebanese said that the situation would not change, 48% said that civil war would rapidly expand, and 32% said that Iraqis would find a way to bridge their differences.  Shia were the most optimistic (32% civil war, 49% reconcile), Druze the most pessimistic (62% civil war, 21% reconcile).
• Nobody expected Saddam's sentencing to provide an opportunity for national reconciliation:  8% said that, compared to 53% who thought it would increase sectarian violence and 28% who thought it would make no difference.   
• Only 42% of Shia think Iran is developing nuclear weapons, but 93% think that Iran has the right to do so.   All other communities overwhelmingly believe that Iran is seeking nuclear weapons (both Sunnis and Christians over 70%).  Only 49% of Sunnis think that Iran should be pressured to stop its nuclear program, along with over 60% of Christians and Druze.
• Interestingly, every community ranks its national identity (Lebanese) as more important than any other affiliation:  70% of Shia, 62% of Sunnis, 78% of Christians, and 91% of Druze.   Arab identity is the overwhelming second most important identity, NOT religion:  46% of Shia, 37% of Sunnis, 26% of Christians, and 62% of Druze.   Only the Christians give more weight to their religious identity than their Arab identity. 
• Most Lebanse adore Jacques Chirac, but not Shia.   Interestingly, the Shia have more admiration for Hugo Chavez than for Mahmoud Ahmednejad - but they would rather be ruled by the Iranian leader than the Venezualan.  Lebanese hate Bush the most of any world leader (especially Shia), but Bashar al-Asad places second (and a strong first for Druze and Christians) - even more unpopular than Olmert or Sharon.
• Israel and the United States are seen as the greatest threats, though Christians and Druze are more afraid of Syria than of the United States. 
• Finally, whatever support for al-Qaeda exists is almost exclusively because it confronts the United States. Nobody admires its methods or supports its goal of creating an Islamic state.

Comments

[MSK]

Dear AA,

too bad we don't have numbers from more recent dates, i.e. after the March 8 protests in Beirut, the Saddam execution, and the further development of the "Sunni-Shi'ite" divide.

Apart from your highlights, I also found the following interesting:

- over 50% of Shi'ites are for a 2-state solution of the Israel-Palestine issue, thus (at least implicitely) recognizing Israel in the pre-67 borders. (p. 8)
- Sunnis are more conservative than Shi'ites (p. 40)
- Chirac enjoys more support in Lebanon than in France

and ...

- Lebanese really have no clue about life in France nor French educational system ...

--MSK

www.aqoul.com

[Tom Scudder]

The one point I found most interesting was that the Druze are the most likely to subscribe to the archetypical "Israel lobby" argument ("Israel influences US to support its policies") while the Shi'ites are most likely to give the same answer AIPAC would ("US and Israel have mutual interests most of the time")

Is there any further explanation of the methodology beyond this intro page? I'd be particularly interested in knowing if the "which leader do you most admire" questions were multiple-choice, multiple-choice with a much wider variety than listed on the final chart, or open & then simplified in the reporting.

[Ben P]

Tom,

I'm guessing the world leader question was open-ended. Responses like Nelson Mandela and Fidel Castro tend to suggest this to be the case.

[Craig]

Most Lebanse adore Jacques Chirac

That says it all :)

[Craig]

Why doesn't anyone ever take a poll to find out what Americans think of Arabs, Abu Aardvark?

[Craig]

Seriously, it seems kind of racist and... absurd... to constantly be releasing these polls to show how much people in the ME hate the west. We get it. I think people in the ME may be interested to know how the world (and America in particular) views them. Don't you?

[War Department]

I agree, this policy would work much better if we could just get past noticing about what anyone actually thought about it. Shouldn't we only bother with lebanese politics when some fascist party hotties get on the tv? Those chicks were totally hot, dude.