Arabiya's Arab public opinion survey

Al-Arabiya's program Panorama the other day discussed the results of a survey of Arab public opinion conducted with the British YouGov organization.  Conducted in December 2006, it surveyed 3113 people "from various Arab countries".  The results are presented over the course of a talk show, which means that I had to hunt through the transcript looking for numbers rather than having any easily readable report to draw on; if I find a link to the actual survey, I'll add it. (*)  Here are the major findings:

• 81% of Arab respondents support Iran's position on the nuclear issue, while only 14% oppose the Iranian nuclear program.  87%  favor GCC states getting nuclear capabilities, though it's not clear exactly what that means.   
• 88% named Israel the "greatest threat to the security and future of the region", followed by the United States (no number given), al-Qaeda at 41% and then - finally -  Iran with 33%.   The al-Arabiya headline's spin:  "Iran is the greatest threat to the region in the eyes of Arabs, after Israel, the United States, and al-Qaeda." 
• 71% of Arabs blame Israel for last summer's Hezbollah-Israel war, with the United States in second place (percentage not given), while 53% blame actors "such as Hezbollah, Iran, or Syria" (a bizarre formulation, if that's how the question was posed). 
  
• Hezbollah and Nasrallah's popularity has declined since the war.  Among Lebanese (no numbers or demographics given), it has gone from 55% during the war to 28% today (although Seniora's government only gets 33%).  While it isn't highlighted by the host, later in the program someone mentions that Arab support for Hezbollah stands at 74%, which may be a decline from war-time levels but is still quite high.
  
• 39% of Arabs thought Hamas was the best party to lead the Palestinians, while only 11% supported Fatah - compared to a 30% to 27% advantage for Hamas among Palestinian respondents (no numbers of demographics given).  At the Arab level, 61% said that Hamas put Palestinian interests first, while only 17% said that Hamas served an Iranian or Syrian agenda,  while 52% of Palestinian respondents said that Hamas was serving an Iranian or Syrian agenda rather than a Palestinian one.

The most interesting finding in al-Arabiya's survey, it seems to me, is that the surveyed Arabs do not really seem to be buying the "Iranian threat" or "Shia threat" narratives.   Only 14% oppose the Iranian nuclear program, only 33% name Iran as a threat to the region, and 74% continue to support Hezbollah.   

(*)  The minimal methodological information provided makes it hard to know how much stock to put in the findings - no information is given about which countries were surveyed or how many people from each, how they were selected, margin of error, or other basic stuff you'd need to assess the survey's reliability.   

(**) UPDATE:  Erik Nisbet, a survey specialist himself, points out in comments below some peculiarities in the YouGov methodology.  From his description, this has more in common with those silly online polls than with serious public opinion survey research.  If that is in fact how they conducted this survey then the results are for all intents and purposes worthless.  I'll try to find out if they used a different methodology for al-Arabiya... I hope so. 

Comments

[Ghurab al-Bain]

Hard to know what to make of this without the methodology but it generally tracks well with the view that there is still a wide gap between the perception of Arabic public opinion on Iran and the fears of Arab rulers about the threat from Teheran. It would be interesting to know how the Saddam execution debacle has skewed this in any significant way - if at all given the public fallout of the past few days.
It also seemingly confirms the perception that Hamas and Hizbullah are more popular among general Arab public opinion than among Palestinians and Lebanese, respectively - those who presumably know them best.

[MSK]

Dear AA,

from the little that one can glean off this survey, some things are interesting:

#1 - Among "Lebanese" Seniora's gov't has more support than Hizballah (33% vs. 28%). That would mean that only half of the possible number of supporters of the March 8 bloc (Shi'ites + Aounist Christians + various small groups) actually do.

#2 - Hamas has much higher support among non-Palestinians than among Palestinians, and the same goes for Hizballah (non-Lebanese vs. Lebanese).

Now, the 2nd doesn't come at a surprise. It is always easier to cheer a radical group when one doesn't have to live under its rule and the further away from a conflict, the less informed is the general public about it. (There is an interesting discussion thread on Moroccan perception of the Mashriq on 'Aqoul right now.)

The 1st assertion is something that would warrant some serious background data - who was asked where?

--MSK

www.aqoul.com

[Erik Nisbet]

For the basic methodology for all YouGov surveys check the YouGovME website (http://www.yougovme.com/). Goto the section on related links and click "How YouGov Works"

Basically, they use an Internet panel which is recruited by advertising, gimmicks, etc. and pay each respondent $1 to participate. They focus exclusively on GCC countries. As a professional survey researcher, I can assure you that this is not a generalizable or representative survey methodology. I would not give these survey finds much worth or credibility at all.

The direct link I think to the general methodology is
http://www.yougovme.com/extranets/mjq/content/aboutHowYouGovworks.asp?sID=1&UID=

[MSK]

Dear Erik,

thanks for the background info. Well ... that makes this "poll" as valid as any other online polls, like the famous ones from Al Jazeera's website.

--MSK

www.aqoul.com

[aardvark]

Thanks, Erik! Very helpful. They explicitly discuss Palestinian and Lebanese respondents, so it couldn't have been exclusively GCC. But if that's in fact the methodology they used, then the results are worthless. I'll try to find out.

[Craig]

later in the program someone mentions that Arab support for Hezbollah stands at 74%, which may be a decline from war-time levels but is still quite high.

Yes, it is. It's quite interesting to see that 74% of arabs support massmurdering terrorists, even now.

Despite the constant claims to the contrary (on blogs and in the news) that Arabs don't support terrorism, they quite clearly DO support terrorism.