There's a meme going around the blogs that among the shortcomings of the Iraq Study Group is an absence of Middle East experts. Depends how you count - sure, the top-line members are politicos, not experts, but that's typical (think of the 9/11 commission). If you go into the members of the expert working groups, you'll find quite a few people with quality knowledge about the region, including Shibley Telhami, Jon Alterman, Reuel Gerecht, Raad Alkadiri, Ellen Laipson, David Mack, Judith Yaphe, Dick Norton, Phebe Marr, Steve Cook, Chas Freeman, Wayne White, Bill Quandt, and more. Now, whether those people are having much input into the process is a real question (not a whole lot, from what I hear). So is whether the ISG will come up with any really new ideas (not really, from what I hear) or will be able to get administration buy-in for whatever it comes up with (your guess as good as mine). Just saying that an absence of expert participation in the process isn't the best line of attack.
My advice, when recommendations about fixing Iraq start coming out: keep an eye out for ponies. In Belle Waring's immortal phrase:
You see, wishes are totally free. It's like when you can't decide whether to daydream about being a famous Hollywood star or having amazing magical powers. Why not -- be a famous Hollywood star with amazing magical powers! Along these lines, John has developed an infallible way to improve any public policy wishes. You just wish for the thing, plus, wish that everyone would have their own pony!
So, when judging recommendations for dealing with the Iraq mess, always keep an eye out for ponies! Here's how it works:
- "We should get the Iranians and the Syrians to establish control over the Shia and Sunni areas... and a pony."
- "We should get the security situation in Baghdad under control... and a pony."
- "We should get responsible leaders in each community to strike a reasonable bargain.. and a pony."
- "The administration should get a grip on reality... and a pony."
See how easy that is? If a recommendation rests on at least one totally unrealistic assumption, then no matter how pretty it otherwise sounds, you might as well wish for a pony while you're at it.
A Shetland for your thoughts! :) A wonderfully amusing post, Professor Aardvark!
Posted by: Nur al-Cubicle | November 15, 2006 at 01:59 PM
I found FP's ideas about who should be in the group somewhat off - why would the current American ambassador be included, since he is designing and implementing the very policies that the group is supposed to critique?
Anyhow, more interesting but less remarked-upon (at least that I've seen) is Monica Duffy Toft's op-ed in Monday's Washington Post, in which she recommends that the US openly side with "the Shiites" to crush "the Sunnis" militarily and politically, once and for all. Is this harsh realpolitik, or more deeply misguided thinking on Iraq?
Posted by: Amy H | November 15, 2006 at 02:08 PM
Great post! I may blog it when I finish this comment.
I'm probably not the only one who saw the "pony" reference and remembered this story about silver linings:
...two boys: Each boy was placed into a room with nothing apparent but a pile of horse manure. One boy simply held his nose and complained non-stop. From the other room the other boy could be heard laughing gleefully as he dug into the pile repeating again and again, "There has to be a pony in here somewhere."
Your "if wishes were horses" reference is, unfortunately, closer to the mark.
Posted by: John Ballard | November 18, 2006 at 08:33 PM