Al-Qaeda's media arm al-Sahab has released a new video, featuring Abu Yehya al-Libi (who made waves a few weeks ago with a video calling for attacks on the White House). As far as American domestic politics goes, it is at best a damp squib. While there is still time for a bin Laden or Zawahiri tape to emerge, a tape from the relatively unknown al-Libi which contains no new threats or information is unlikely to have much impact on the American public. If this is the extent of al-Sahab's output before the election, then it would appear that al-Qaeda Central has chosen to sit out the election. Indeed, its release of such a minor tape at this time could be read as a clear message that it could have issued a bigger tape had it wanted to.
Details of the tape, for those whose interest extends beyond its electoral impact, follow.
Al-Libi escaped from an Afghan prison last year, and has appeared in a number of tapes since then (he made a bit of a splash a few weeks ago by calling for an attack on the White House; he also released a tape of bad poetry, which is possibly even scarier). This tape contains nothing as sensational as the White House tape or as frightening as his poetry. It progresses like this: a eulogy for Farouq al-Iraqi, a long-time jihadist and fellow escapee from Bagram Prison who was recently killed by British troops; a warning to the Iraqi mujahidin to close ranks; a spirited declaration of the jihad's success in Iraq and Afghanistan and series of insults leveled against the Americans; and a lengthy taunting of Muslim scholars (ulema) for not coming out to fight in the jihad. Two quick notes on aesthetics: Al-Libi is rather more charismatic than Zawahiri, at least (though so is my toaster, so that isn't saying much). And the background is very odd - it appears to be a backdrop screen, not really an open field, but there's one (and only one) spot where some stalks of grass wave in the wind.. like I said, just weird.
Notes on content: The lengthy eulogy for Farouq al-Iraqi may be just what it appears. But the long disquisitions on how the death of a mujahid does not affect the wider jihad ("it will not weaken us or cause us to backtrack or leave the fields of jihad") could be interpreted by those inclined to do so as another hint from central command of the imminent passing of bin Laden (or, less likely, Zawahiri). There's no real reason to read too much into this, but it's at least plausible. More likely, this is just a generic eulogy for al-Libi's colleague in arms and nothing more need be read into it.
The discussion of Iraq is more nuanced than the discussion of Afghanistan, about which there is little more than boasting that the Taliban is on the rise, a repeatedly emphasized point that Mullah Omar is personally leading the battles, and that victory is near. About Iraq, al-Libi is both enthusiastic and pensive. On the one hand, al-Libi celebrates the success of the jihad, and mocks the Americans for just now realizing that invading Iraq was a mistake. He praises the Iraqi jihad for reviving the Muslim umma. "The omens of victory have begun to appear everywhere," he says, while the will of the United States "has begun to break and his strength has begun to wane."
While his message of al-Qaeda's triumphs in Afghanistan and Iraq is clear - the video exudes self-confidence and triumphalism at that level - a length section of al-Libi's video is also full of warnings to the Iraqi mujahidin to avoid falling into the traps of internal dissension, impatience, and factionalism. Al-Libi inveighs against internal dissent or public expressions of pessimism: "victory comes through agreement and unity... defeat and breakup come with dispute, dissent, and discord." The mujahidin in Iraq must "come together, close your ranks, and strengthen your resolve." His repeated urging of patience and unity could suggest that al-Qaeda Central may be growing worried by the reported challenges by Iraqi nationals to its man in Iraq (Abu Hamza al-Muhajir, praised by name in the video). "Beware of wasting the fruits" of this jihad's victory, he warns - a note of caution within triumphalism which is probably the most important takeaway from the video.
So there you have it. This tape is a book number, not a breakaway pop hit. At this point, I'm not even seeing any real coverage of it on any of the big media websites, or even on Yahoo News. If this is all that al-Sahab releases, then it will be the opposite of an "October surprise" - though there is still plenty of time for bin Laden or Zawahiri to put out their own videos in time to get pre-election airtime.
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