Al-Dhari: pre-emptive strike against Baker?

There's this big debate going on in Washington about whether the US should tilt towards the Shia in Iraq and help them destroy the Sunnis,  or else "revive the national reconciliation project" with some Sunni leadership.   This may soon be a purely academic debate.   According to al-Arabiya, the government of Nuri al-Maliki has just gone and issued an arrest warrant for one of the most influential leaders of the Iraqi Sunni community, Harith al-Dhari of the Association of Muslim Scholars.  That giant barrel of civil war grade gasoline should pretty much rule out any chance of "reviving the national reconciliation project."  While Iraqi government spokesmen Ali Dabbagh has clarified that it was an "investigation warrant" and not an "arrest warrant," this distinction may not particularly reassure the Sunni community.   From Amman, Dhari denounced the arrest order as illegitimate and illegal, and rejected the "investigation order" clarification as well.

   

Screenshot of Harith al-Dhari courtesy of al-Jazeera

Given that Iraqi leaders follow American politics very closely (as well they should) and have been anxiously parsing the signals about future US Iraq policy, and given that many Iraqi Shia are already deeply disgruntled at Ambassador Zal Khalilzad's (reported) efforts to find a  workable deal with Sunni leaders, it's hard to read the warrant issued against Dhari as anything other than a pre-emptive strike against a "revive the national reconciliation project / Sunni tilt" recommendation coming out of the Baker commission.   Dhari's interview today from Amman with al-Jazeera strongly supports this interpretation: he blames the arrest order on "certain factions in the government who are incapable of understanding international developments", while also distancing himself from al-Qaeda in Iraq, both of which clearly aim at positioning himself as a legitimate interlocutor for the United States when it shifts its policies. 

UPDATE:  at least some of the jihadi forum comment is blaming Saudi Arabia for Dhari's arrest - an interesting angle;  and for more on Dhari and the wider scene, see the latest from Badger's blog.

MORE:  Al-Jazeera is reporting that Iraq's Kurdish Deputy Prime Minister Barham Saleh says that the investigation order was issued by a judge, without the government's knowledge.  But the Shia Interior Minister is defending the decision, while the Interior Ministry's spokesman is taking a hard line accusing Dhari of violating anti-terrorism laws.    How plausible is it that such an inflammatory move could be taken by a judge without the government's knowledge, even given the general disarray in the Iraqi "state"?   Meanwhile, al-Jazeera is also reporting that the Iraqi Islamic Party has called the warrant a "bullet aimed at the heart of national reconciliation."  Tariq al-Hashimi, the Sunni Vice President, also called the warrant "destructive to the national reconciliation plan", and the Association of Muslim Scholars is calling on Maliki's government to resign.   Even if Maliki's government survives this, it seems to have done its work of pre-empting any real reconciliation efforts.   

Saturday morning:  al-Hayat reports that the Association of Muslim Scholars is calling on the Iraqi people to withdraw from Parliament and the government. Speculation that Maliki's government could fall over this - or the government could take on an even more nakedly sectarian face. 

Comments

[Ghurab al-Bain]

One of the many talking heads that Al-Jazeera featured today denouncing the Iraqi Ministry of Interior warrant against Al-Dari was one "Grand Ayatullah Sayid Ahmed Al-Hasani al-Baghdadi," speaking from Najaf and criticizing the Shi'a-controlled Iraqi Government (as well as the Americans) and praising Al-Dari. Al-Hasani is kind of a Muqtada al-Sadr figure (before Al-Sadr became a pillar of the Maliki Government) - trying to "out radicalize" his Iraqi Shi'a political and religious rivals and trotting out the increasingly frayed "we would all get along just fine if it wasn't for the Americans" line.

[aardvark]

Good point - radical outflanking is going to be the problem that any Sunni leadership willing to deal with the US is going to face. Maliki isn't making it any easier...

[AHR]

AA - On an unrelated note, do you know who's publishing Nathir Rashid's memoirs, and when they're coming out? The al-Quds article made it sound like a pretty valuable resource for historians of that period. I'd like to get my hands on a copy. Thanks!
- Avshalom Rubin

[AHR]

I guess I should say, is the book even going to go to press in commercial quantities at all? It sounds like the cat is already out of the bag, at least as far as the Jordanian political elite is concerned, but still...

[tribalecho]

Yo. Aardvarkians. I was just watching this promo of a Glenn Beck special on CNN and I thought of you.

http://www.cnn.com/CNN/Programs/beck.extremistagenda/

I listen to right-wing radio and watch the televangelists on TBN and such. Islamofacists are everywhere! Looks like CNN is really getting into the act. I don't have cable and I don't know the players (although I think I actually remembered this Al-Dari guy from a long Nir Rosen thing I waded through last night.) So I'm hoping that Marc will be watching, or maybe some of you. I'm very curious about who and what Beck will present and just how objective (ha) it will be. I'm mean I know there's plenty of crazies over there, but I doubt Beck will contrast Muslim behavior with say, the Rev. Rod Parsley red-faced, screaming "Dominion Now" or watching Paul Crouch brag about all the Muslims "Operation Blessing" is bringing to Jesus or having the former mayor of Jeruselem assure him that there may be talk but that the city will always be ruled by Israel. Just to show, ya know, it's not just Muslims that want to take over the world anymore.

IOW, this inarticulate working wench is asking for some context on what I suspect will be an interesting hit piece and a real feather in the cap of the nuke-em-all crowd. So of course when I think media-Middle East-informed context sharing, I think of you. And cross my fingers that I find some discussion of this rather bizarre media event.(if you watch the video you will see that Beck literally begs people to watch because he's put himself on the line to prove that this is what people want to see. very strange)

[Batir]

This is a response to AHR: the Nather rasheed book has been published in beirut. The author has brought a few copies to Amman that are circulated and copied by some politicians. I am striving to get a hold of one copy although I am not convinced with the "political importance" of the author, but we have to judge the content not the man.

[the aardvark]

Batir - thanks for the info on the publisher of the Rashid book. I haven't seen it either yet, but I will say that if the book says the same things I've heard the author say, then it should cause quite a stir indeed...