Jordan's Shia threat

All morning, I've been mulling over Jordanian columnist Mohammed Abu Roman's article in today's al-Ghad about the appearance for the first time in Jordan's history of the "Shia question" as a security issue.   The appearance of a "Shia question" in Jordan is bizzare, given that (according to generally accepted statistics quoted by Abu Roman) there aren't more than a few hundred Shia among Jordan's citizenry. But, according to Abu Roman, official government circles are increasingly concerned about "political Shi'ism" due to the influx of Iraqi Shia refugees, the alleged relations between Iran and the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood (via Hamas), and the worrisome popularity of Hezbollah during its war with Israel.  Abu Roman hints at the irony of the fact that the main anti-Shia forces in Jordan are the salafi and jihadist movements against which the regime has been cracking down hard since last November's terrorist attacks, noting that these unnamed officials had no plans to enlist the salafi trend against the Shia threat.   What's the deal?   Any connection with the reports that "the focus of Rice's trip is to talk with moderate Arab governments -- Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf states -- about how to form a united front against Iranian-backed extremism"? 

Comments

[Nas]

essentially the fear boils down to iraqi shias and sunnis using Jordan as a battle ground which is not out of the realm of possibility in the absence of Jordanian security forces. in Amman you're talking about a population of Iraqis that is touch one million, pro-saddam, anti-saddam, pro-american, anti-american, pro-this and anti-that. it's not one sided.

the salafis or more accuratly any of the extremists are more dangerous to Jordan, hence the crackdown. they have a bigger playground to recruit from given that the country is 93% sunni.

that being said, the column is just one man's opinion. sunni or shia, I could care less; the extremists of both sects are bad news.

[aardvark]

nas - that makes sense to me, the fear of the civil war migrating into Amman. But what was interesting about Abu Roman's piece is precisely that it wasn't just his opinion, he at least claims to be basing it on official sources.

[Merissa]

I think it is more of an Iran question or a Tehran crescent than a Shia question/cresent. Yes, the shia minority in Jordan is negligible and I doubt the shia Iraqi refugees are a cause for concern. Jordan has been a safe haven for Iraqi refugees, sunni and shia, (and many others) since Saddam invaded Kuwait.

However, the Iran-Hezbollah-Syria triangle is a cause of concern given any potential spillover effects into Jordan- which has maintain its peace treaty with Israel for a little over a decade.

This summer's 'showdown' in Lebanon has empowered Hezbollah and has changed views about Iran across the Arab and Muslim world. Hezbolla and Iran also go hand in hand. If before July 12th 2006 , 50% of Jordanians were skeptical of Iran, I am sure Iran's support for Hezbollah has won it some more points.

Again,this is a very political question- cloaked in religion. To quote an Arab Shite friend of mine: "When the Shia card could prove effective, why not play it?"

We have always lived in the crossfire in Jordan. Balancing is not easy but it's necessary in the pursuit of self-preservation and stability.

[Nas]

"he at least claims to be basing it on official sources."

marc,

yeah a lot of these columnists put it in that context to make it seem more credible and/or plausible when in reality it's doubtful.

Merissa,

despite hizballah's relative success it merely results in respect from the jordanian street as opposed to support. whenever iran is in the mix it neutralizes any sense of arab nationalism which is the only thing that tends to make support consistant.

[Merissa]

Nas, I think it is both respect and support- for hezbollah. It might be superficial support or merely verbal support, but it is significant nevertheless. As long as Iran uses the Palestinian cause to rally the Muslim masses and increase its populairty, it will maintain a base of support.