The Saudi TV station al-Arabiya recently commisioned an Arab public opinion poll by YouGov. The survey is pretty much garbage, unfortunately, with a sample size of only 537 individuals (the only other information about the sample is that 36% were from North Africa, 27% from the Gulf, and the rest from other Arab countries). And a lot of the questions seem to be very strangely worded, making it hard to interpret the answers. That said, here are the main findings of the survey:
- 67% say that al-Qaeda does not have the capability of taking over the Arab or Islamic worlds (this is the result which al-Arabiya chose to lead with).
- 57% say that Arab states are doing a good job fighting terrorism
- 36% say that 9/11 was unjustifiable, 24% say that it was justifiable.
- 25% say that al-Qaeda was not involved with the 9/11 attacks.
- 36% say that al-Qaeda's actions in Afghanistan are justifiable, 28% in Iraq, 16% London, 11% Madrid, and 9% Indonesia
- 40% are impressed with how al-Qaeda uses the media.
- 61% say that al-Qaeda's actions hurt the image of Muslims.
- 58% think that Israel benefited from 9/11, and 43% think the US benefited. 21% think that Iran is the greatest beneficiary five years after 9/11, while 24% think al-Qaeda was the greatest winner.
What to say about these numbers? That 67% think that al-Qaeda can't take over the Islamic world just says that 67% are in touch with reality, and says nothing about whether the people want al-Qaeda to take over. That 33% think that al-Qaeda can take over the Arab and Islamic world is fairly surprising, I'd have to say - and (to the extent that this survey has any credibility given methdological concerns) is an indicator of some success for al-Qaeda's media campaign. (I have no idea how the question about al-Qaeda's use of the media was framed, since the report doesn't say, but 40% admiration for its media campaign has got to be something of a vote of confidence for al-Sahab.)
That only 36% think 9/11 was unjustifiable catches the eye, but only 24% said that it was justifiable, and I just don't know what the other 40% thought. That 25% continue to deny al-Qaeda's involvement in 9/11 is actually much lower than in the 2006 Pew survey, where 59% of Egyptians and 53% of Jordanians denied Arab involvement in the attacks. Many of the other findings seem somewhat contradictory, and hard to interpret.
That al-Arabiya commissioned a survey like this is an interesting development in its own right, and one I applaud in general. But if they are going to do it seriously, they need to do it right. I wish that the methodology on this survey were stronger, so that I could have more confidence in any of its findings. But since it isn't, I'm not going to expend a huge amount of effort in interpreting the results - just wanted to report them, since the survey's being reported on al-Arabiya.
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