about that whole Iraqi caliphate thing

Since the President has evidently decided to stick with the "al-Qaeda will set up a caliphate in Iraq" line, I suppose it's worth pointing back to deep in the mists of time (last week) when I responded at length to that argument.   Short version:  there is virtually no way al-Qaeda could conceivable establish a calipahte in Iraq,  whether or not the US keeps troops in Iraq, because Iran and the Iraqi Shia (along with virtually all of Iraq's neighbors) would prevent it.   It is also highly unlikely that al-Qaeda wants to do this, although that question is kind of irrelevant - sort of like asking me whether I want to be the new point guard for the Orlando Magic.  Responses to Bush's other arguments tomorrow, if I have time.

Comments

[Jay C]

AA: just a suggestion for you: don't waste your valuable time even trying to formulate a "response" to President Bush's "arguments" - there really aren't any. Just hollow political talking-points that some White House clone-drone has dredged up out of rightwing blogs and recycled to try to fluff up the war-hawk "base" to vote Republican in the Fall elections, lest (God Forbid!) God's Own Party might lose their hold on the Mandate of Heaven - and America fall into the Abyss.
That by the Fall of 2006, anyone, still less the President of the United States, would still be flogging the inane "Caliphate" meme to the public as any sort of rationale for the Iraq Occupation ought to be a cause for derisive ridicule, not the sort of serious analysis we expect from Abu Aardvark!
Which analysis we look forward to!

[Robert Stevens]

Jay C, I admit you have a point as to the timing of the message, and Marc has a point as to the locus of the threat, but the message itself is valid (even if Bush doesn't frame it as such): Islamism in itself is not the threat. It is Islamism that has co-opted fascism (see Taheri's "Fascism in Muslim Countries"), a western ideology btw, that is the threat.

[Petey]

Jameer Nelson is a perfectly good point guard for the Magic.

Why are you trying to ruin the Magic? Why do you hate America?

[No Preference]

It is Islamism that has co-opted fascism (see Taheri's "Fascism in Muslim Countries"), a western ideology btw, that is the threat.

What kind of threat? A threat to "establish . . . a totalitarian Islamic empire encompassing all current and former Muslim lands"? A "great threat to our way of life"?

Al Qaeda is capable of launching attacks on the US, as Sept 11 showed. But its only hope of broader gains is through our cooperation. If the US is highly unpopular in the Middle East, and is considered to be more of a threat to global stability than Iran, North Korea, Iraq, China or Russia in Europe, whose fault is that? What effect have George Bush's rhetoric and policies had on the willingness of people to help us? Particularly Muslims, those "innocent Muslims" for whom George Bush professes such concern?

[aardvark]

Petey: my nominee for comment of the year. I stand humbled. Still, you miss one key possibility: maybe I just want to make JJ Redick look good by comparison!