Palestinian public opinion survey

Al-Jazeera reports that a new Palestinian public opinion survey finds Palestinians preferring Ismail Haniya (Hamas) over Mahmoud Abbas (Fatah) by more than five percentage points (31.7% to 26.3%).   Al-Jazeera's presentation is a bit misleading, since they highlight the "strongly support" numbers rather than the total of "strongly" and "somewhat" support.   in addition to the 31.7% who "strongly support" Haniyia, 30.6% "somewhat support him, 24.5% "somewhat do not support him, and  11.8% "strongly do not support" him.    As for Abbas, 26.3% strongly support him and 43.7% "somewhat support him", while  20.3% "somewhat do not support" and  9.2% "strongly do not support."  The same survey could be presented like this, then:   70% of Palestinians support Mahmoud Abbas to some degree, compared to 62.3% who support Haniya to some degree.   

Al-Jazeera's choice to spin the results in Haniya's favor is telling (keeping in mind that this is the website, not the TV station).  The headline results strengthen the argument that the kind of harsh military approach Olmert is using in Gaza and Lebanon only strengthens the Islamist alternative.  The more detailed results don't strongly undermine the argument - Haniya doesn't do poorly, and his negatives are no higher, and probably a bit lower, than before the Palestinian-Israeli fighting began.  But it doesn't support the argument as strongly.  And the results also don't show Abbas being undermined dramatically by the violence.  At any rate, it isn't nearly as clear-cut as the Lebanese survey showing a dramatic rise in support for Hezbollah.

Other interesting results from the survey:

• 57.7% supported a ceasefire (hudna was the word used in the survey) with Israel, 38.4% opposed it.
• 49.9% opposed Mahmoud Abass's call to cease firing rockets into Israel unilaterally, while 47.8% supported him.
• On the "Prisoner's Document", 58.6% saw it as an important and positive step, while  37.5% thought the opposite. 
• 76.5% of respondents said the economic situation was bad, just 3.4% said good.  I presume those 3.4% have good guards outside their mansions.   
• 81.4% of respondents wanted the US and Europe to resume financial assistance to the Palestinian government.  But only 33.9% said that their view of America and Europe (all the questions combined the two, not asking about the US specificall) would improve if they did so;  28.9% said that this would actually make their views of the US and Europe less positive (?!?);  and 36.1% said it would make no difference.
• 51.6% said that Arab states are not capable of offering adequate financial support.

Comments

[Sara J.]

The support for Hamas is not as clear-cut as the support for Hezbollah because Hamas lacks the charismatic leadership of Hezbollah. The dynamics of Hamas and Hezbollah are quite different as well.

This is an interesting view on what makes Hezbollah what it is in the Arab world:

The Neo David and Goliath: 10 Reasons Why Hezbollah is Great

http://hezballah.blogspot.com/2006/07/neo-david-and-goliath-10-reasons-why.html

[Rex Brynen]

You have to be a bit careful trying to read too much from this poll--its from the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion, which is generally the least reliable of the major polling outfits in the WBG. While they seem to have got better over time, their sample demographics often seem to be rather skewed.

That having been said, all the orders-of-magnitude look right.

[Dirk]

Actually I'm pleasantly surprised by this, especially since those opposing and those in favour of a unilateral stop to rocket attacks is near enough 50/50.