CSS Jordanian public opinion survey - Zarqawi and bin Laden

The Center for Strategic Studies at the University of Jordan - the best polling outfit in Jordan, generally - has released another public opinion survey (Arabic story in al-Ghad).  The headline is that the majority of Jordanians see the late Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and his organization as terrorists, and only 15% as "legitimate resistance." 

That headline is a bit misleading:  only 54.3% actually described Zarqawi as a terrorist.  While that's a reasonably healthy number, it is barely a majority, almost within the margin of error of not being one.  It is hardly an overwhelming figure in a country where Zarqawi's November 2005 bombing of luxury hotels outraged national sensibilities, where the government has been leading an aggressive campaign against him and his ideas, and where the highly public arrest of four members of Parliament for speaking well of him after his death might well have an inhibiting effect on what respondents might tell a pollster.   The 54.3% figure is down five points from an Ipsos-Stat survey reported on June 19, which found 59% describing Zarqawi as a terrorist.  And it is down almost twenty points from a CSS survey conducted a few weeks after the Amman hotel bombing, when 72.2% considered Zarqawi's organization to be a terrorist one.  Meanwhile, those describing bin Laden's al-Qaeda Central as a "legitimate resistance" increased from 20% in December to 25.7% now, while those describing bin Laden as a terrorist decreased from 48.9% to 41.1%.

It's always risky to read too much into relatively small variations in these opinion surveys, although comparisons across surveys by the same organization (using the same samples and the same methods) are better than comparisons across organizations (i.e. CSS vs Ipsos or Pew).   Still, the trend seems fairly clear -  the turn in Jordanian public opinion against Zarqawi and bin Laden after the Amman bombing seems to be reversing itself somewhat.   A couple of thoughts as to why that might be.  First, a natural reversion to deeply held beliefs - shortly after the Amman hotel terror, many Jordanians were galvanized and genuinely horrified.  Those feelings fade over time, and for at least some people political attitudes revert to their norm - a trend which Americans in the years since 9/11 should recognize.   Second, possibly a negative reaction to the Jordanian government's aggressive campaign against the Muslim Brotherhood since the arrest of the Islamist MPs over their Zarqawi comments, now escalating into a full-bore assault (including a demand by a Parliamentary majority that the Islamic Action Front apologize for their members' comments, and a corruption investigation into the Brotherhood's charitable society).   Whatever the case, the CSS survey should be a bit sobering. 

Comments

[Craig]

The only country in the middle east (besides Israel) that understands the evil of terrorism is Iraq. Because Iraqis are themselves the victims of terrorist attacks every single day, and have been for years. And yet, Arab neighbors of Ira say that Iraqis do not understand the nature of the struggle. Iraqis are the ONLY Arabs who understand the nature of the "struggle." And Lebanon, to a much lesser extent, possibly.

The rest are on board with the perpetrators, at least partially... because, you know... they haven't been the victims of jihadis yet.

Jordanians can go to hell. I was repulsed by the vile filth I was reading from Jordanian commenters before the Amman bombings. AN dit didn't seem to get all that much better, afterwards. It doesn't surprise me in the least that Jordanians are returning to the status-quo.

[Nur al-Cubicle]

I see that the death penaly has been requested for Sajida al-Rishawi, the hotel bomber whose payload did not go off, if I remember correctly. How explosive is asking for the execution of a woman?