Sunni-Shia or regimes-people?

Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan are ramping up their rhetoric against Hezbollah, Iran, and even Hamas - blaming their "adventurism" for the suffering of the Palestinian and Lebanese people (which is pretty much the American line right now too).  The Saudi-backed al-Arabiya features Hosni Mubarak saying that "the benefits of resistance in Lebanon and Iran are limited, while the people pay the price."  A deluge of editorials in the Saudi-owned al-Sharq al-Awsat blast Iran and Hezbollah, with one going so far as to say that Hezbollah's actions are part of a comprehensive Iranian war against the Arabs.  Meanwhile, Talal Salman in al-Safir can only thank the Saudis for their "help": at a time when Israel is relentlessly bombarding us and inflicting catastrophic damage on our people, he writes, an attack on Hezbollah is exactly what we needed from our Arab brothers. 

There are two big ways to interpret this:  that this is about Sunni-Shia tensions (Al-Sharq al-Awsat's editor, Tareq al-Homayed, goes out of his way to argue that just because Saudi Arabia, King "Shia Crescent" Abdullah of Jordan, and Hosni "Iraqi Shia are loyal to Iran" Mubarak are teaming up against Hezbollah and Iran, it isn't anything to do with Sunni-Shia issues) or that it is about "pro-American dictators" opposing a popular resistance movement in defiance of their own publics.  In spite of my sarcastic labels above, I incline more to the latter view.     The Muslim Brotherhood is as Sunni as they come, but it has come out strongly in support of Hezbollah.  Al-Jazeera is often accused of being the "Sunni" network by angry non-Sunni Arab Iraqis, but it has been voicing a populist Arab message of support for Hezbollah.  Jordanian and Egyptian public opinion is really Sunni... and really pro-Hezbollah.  I just don't see attitudes towards Hezbollah at the popular level breaking down along sectarian lines.  This is more about the conservative Arab powers asserting themselves against their regional rivals and against their own people, while winning points with America in the process 

I don't think that the anti-Hezbollah campaign is so much a change of heart on the part of the Saudis or Mubarak or the others. It's more  a newfound boldness on their part - finally they're saying in public what they always said to American officials in private.   They are practically aligning themselves with Israel and America against Hezbollah, Hamas, and their own publics (which, of course, was always what their Arab populist critics accused them of).  Which raises the real question:  why this newfound boldness on their part?  Why this aggressive media campaign against Hezbollah rather than the traditional game of allowing the media and protestors to rail, throw them a few symbolic bones while quietly doing the pragmatic thing (and telling the US about it in private)?   I'd venture a few guesses. 

First, most of them - especially the Saudis - really do share the American fear of the Iranians.  They're worried about the Iranian nuclear program, and terrified of Iran's influence in Iraq (and the loss of what had historically been the Arab bulwark against Iran - see:  Iran-Iraq war, 1980-1988 for details).   Second, they don't like any popular movement that they don't control:  note that their major criticism of both Hamas and Hezbollah is that they didn't consult or coordinate in advance.   Third, this is a great chance for them to prove their usefulness to the Americans and finally put an end to all that democratization silliness.   That their publics vocally support Hamas and Hezbollah isn't a problem in this case - it's a positive asset, because it lets them point out to Washington how much better it is to have them in power than any democratically elected leaders.   Fourth, the rapid evolution of the Arab media may have convinced them that the old public/private game didn't work so well anymore, and that they needed to engage in the argument differently than in the past.   Having al-Arabiya on hand meant that the Saudis didn't have to run scared of al-Jazeera or cede the discursive field - it could get its own message out to a sizable audience. 

More later - including, time permitting, a look at what the jihadis who really hate the Shia and really hate Israel have to say about all this; and a look at Faisal al-Qassem's extremely popular The Opposite Direction program, which (judging by the promo running on al-Jazeera all morning) is set to take this development on very directly and provocatively this afternoon.

Comments

[hosni]

some friends of mine are working on building a location for comprehensive information on the crisis. they are also trying to coordinate aid to the lebanese people. check it out:
www.saveleb.org

[Peter]

Weren't there some analyasts (e.g Vali Nasr) who were claiming that the United States could build bridges with the Shia Crescent? That strategy is pretty much shot to hell now.

[elie]

I don't have access to Al Jazeera TV but I've been reading their website in Arabic and while mentioning Hizbullah's bombing of Nazareth and the 2 dead, they "failed" to mention that the dead were two Arab-Israeli children.

Their English website did the same thing stating:

"Two Israeli children were killed when a rocket hit a house in the northern Israeli town of Nazareth", a military spokesman said.

This is not surprising since it's been proven by the hundreds of victims of jihadi violence in Iraq, that the Arab street and the media don't give a rat's a.. about the death of Arabs killed by other Arabs. What matters to them above all is that the killer was an Israeli or American, then they get all riled up. THis point is well documented by the great Egyptian blogger The Big Pharaoh.
What hypocrisy!! And this is not the first time I caught Al jazeera engaging in these types of "ommissions". Despicable.

[molasses]

Ellie: The English language version does mention that they are Arab-Israeli

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/5B036E77-E9AA-45A9-BC64-531732AF1EB0.htm

[Aqbawi]

Elie,
There was also a repeated report on al-Jazeera today by al-Jazeera's correspondent, Elias Karam, which said they were Arab-Israeli and spoke to the children's mother, among other people. There was also mention of this in al-Quds al-Arabi (http://www.alquds.co.uk/index.asp?fname=2006\07\07-20\z30.htm)