Trolling through some of the jihadi boards, I found a couple of interesting takes on the latest spate of al-Qaeda videos. The most interesting was a lengthy analysis of the recent tapes by Walid Nour, - I couldn't tell from the thread whether he wrote this for posting on the al-Tajdid forum or whether someone found it and reproduced it. Either way, it's quite interesting.
Nour begins by analyzing the general contours of al-Qaeda's media strategy - which he sees as both central to its overall strategy and as an arena in which it has recorded a number of notable successes and proven itself every bit America's equal. He agrees with those analysts who argue that the media war is as important for al-Qaeda as the military war. He surveys the situation as such: at time when Washington is trapped in an unprecedented disaster in Iraq, the Islamic resistance is resurgent in Afghanistan, and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld faces scathing criticism, al-Qaeda chose to launch an unprecedented media offensive.
He interprets the three videos in one week as evidence of continuing unity of command in al-Qaeda, suggesting that they were coordinated rather than coincidental (and compares what he sees as the close working relationship among al-Qaeda's leaders favorably to the disarray he sees in Washington evidenced by the confrontations between Rumsfeld and the retired generals). And he sees their release as evidence that the al-Qaeda leaders feel secure rather than beleaguered.
Nour sees the central message as a call to intensify the confrontation. He interprets the videos and tapes as signs that the al-Qaeda leadership sees itself in a strong position right now and that the time is right to push its advantage. The remarks on Darfur and on the Danish cartoons are read as an attempt to take the campaign global rather than just Arab or regional. And above all, he argues, al-Qaeda is pursuing the 'clash of civilizations' strategy - which is why he focused on Arab liberals and secularists so directly. He goes on to briefly analyze the Zarqawi and Zawahiri tapes, both of which he sees as attempts to press the insurgency's advantage at a time of strength - a coordinated escalation of the local campaigns in support of bin Laden's global strategy.
It's interesting how sharply this rather triumphalist reading on a leading jihadi internet forum contrasts with the conventional wisdom that the tapes show al-Qaeda's weakness and diminishing relevance. It doesn't mean that Nour is right - it could just be a pep talk, an attempt at happy spin to rally the demoralized jihadi troops. But it's a telling difference all the same.
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