The return of Allawi?

Abd al-Bari Atwan, the influential editor of the Arabist daily al-Quds al-Arabi, argues today that not only were the results of the Constitutional referendum a foregone conclusion, but so are the coming Parliamentary elections.   The results have been pre-cooked, he claims, to produce "a new government hostile to Iran, as an instrument for the American administration in the coming war against it."  And this supposed new government has a name attached to it:  Iyad Allawi.   

Atwan writes that Allawi "will return to rule by force, as the person acceptable to most Iraqis, in the American imagination... as a secular, nationalist [qawmi] man hostile to Iran, and unacceptable to Sayid Ali Sistani."   He reports that Allawi has intensified his contacts with various Iraqi factions over the last few days, in order to create a coalition that will present itself as the broadest democratic- oriented list able to confront the specter of sectarianism and to wage a fierce war against the insurgency.   In other words, Allawi will present himself as the Iraqi De Gaulle, the savior for all of Iraq's woes.  He is counting, according to Atwan, on Iraqis having a short memory, and not remembering that he was one of the figures most closely cooperating with the American occupation.   Atwan wants to remind Iraqis of this history, and probably is trying to kill Allawi's bid before it begins. 

Is there anything to it?  Does Allawi - whose list managed only about 14% of the vote last time - have a chance?  Wouldn't the recent revelations of massive corruption within Allawi's administration - with some 23 arrest warrants out, including for former Minister of Defence Hazem Shaalan, for the theft of $1 billion - dampen enthusiasm for his return?   

I don't know.  I don't see much reason to believe that the US is actively cooking those particular books.  But there is more evidence that Allawi is in fact planning a comeback.  His replacement, Ibrahim Jaafari, hasn't exactly covered himself in glory, and there might well be some nostalgia for a tougher law and order approach (how this will be reconciled with his self-portrayal as the defender of democracy is less clear).  And Allawi has been taking steps which look like a bid for such a triumphant return.   Reuters confirms that Allawi has been consulting widely to form such an electoral list:  "In the strongest indication yet that Allawi will run in December elections, he hosted a gathering on Monday of 850 politicians from across Iraq's sectarian, ethnic and political divides for what he called a 'reconciliation conference'. Those present had little doubt that it marked the start of a  political campaign to get his old job back."  Other reports back this up, emphasizing his outreach to Sunnis worried about Shia dominance in particular (how he will reconcile this Sunni outreach with his promise to get tough with the insurgency, or his past policies in Fallujah, is unclear).   And Allawi appeared on al-Jazeera the other day, formally to talk about the Constitution, but fairly obviously also to remind Iraqis of his face and put himself back in play. 

I haven't written anything about the Iraqi Constitution vote, partly because I don't have anything new to add, and partly because I didn't think it was very significant.  The pre-vote follies - the failure to distribute the text, the agreement on near-term future amendments - seemed to me to render the vote pretty moot.   A deadline was met, which is great if you value deadlines, but it didn't seem like much more than that.   The outcome, in which the Constitution's "success" rests on highly disputed numbers out of Mosul, does seem to be one of the worst possible... to the extent that it matters.  The Parliamentary elections, on the other hand, do strike me as being significant and worthy of attention, and I'm looking forward to many more developments like this Allawi storyline... real politics!

Comments

[Nur al-Cubicle]

Somehow I don't see the fellow who ordered the US bombings of Karbala and Najaf doing too well in the upcoming election. But he's being groomed by Washington and supported by the Arab League (all those worryworts concerned by the Pillsbury Doughboy, er Shi'ite Croissant).

From today's L'Orient-Le Jour: Two days following the popular referendum on the Constitution, several dozen Iraqi politicians of all stripes met yesterday in Baghdad at the invitation of former PM Iyad Allawi to discuss national unity. The audience was read a message from Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa, expected in Baghdad shortly, in which Moussa called on Iraqis to "preserve national unity" and to assist the Iraqi authorities in "reaching their objective of building a stable Iraq".

The message, read by a Lebanese Chargé d’Affaires Hassan Hijazi, was the first of its kind addressed to Iraqi politicians after the fall of the former regime in Marchh 2003. Taking the podium, Mr. Allawi, who is not concealing his ambition of building an alliance around his secular party, National Accord, urged the promotion of a culture of political dialog.

[Ghurab al-Bain]

Atwan is being more than a little ridiculous. It isn't the Americans per se who want Allawi back, it is the Arab regimes. Allawi has spent the months out of power cosying up to the powers that be in Cairo, Riyadh, Amman, Abu Dhabi, etc. Selling himself as the strongman in waiting they all longed for. They would have preferred a Sunni General, but a secular, former Ba'athist Shi'a will do just nicely. And did you see Iyad Allawi on Al-Jazeera recently - the same station he shut down in August, 2004?

[the aardvark]

GB - yeah, I mentioned the al-Jazeera appearance in the post... can you believe it? Almost as good as when Hazem Shalaan went on al-Jazeera to criticize Chalabi, or when Chalabi went on al-Jazeera to criticize Allawi... shameless!

[Andy]

My site has kept off the armchair, but now I have passed a short-course in armchair-generalship to add my paltry B.Sc. and Dip.Ed, it seems only logical to project my ideas outwards into the blogosphere....

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