There seems to be an unusually public row brewing among the Kuwaiti royal family - one which, according to al-Jazeera, might lead to the designation of a new Crown Prince. Given the poor health of the Amir - and the reportedly even worse health of the Crown Prince - this public row might well signify a change in his status and an imminent change of leadership.
The whole thing burst into public when Shaykh Salem al-Ali al-Sabah - the eldest member of the dynasty - called for a collective leadership and blasted un-named members of the royal family for exploiting their positions for personal gain, making "individual" decisions to the detriment of the country, and of corruption. He complained that senior members of the royal family were being excluded from decision making, which he saw as a dangerous violation of Kuwaiti traditions, and went so far as to describe many recent decisions as "un-constitutional."
The Kuwaiti media and political elite went wild, with many calling on the Amir to step in and resolve the crisis. But others took the unusual public split at the top as an opportunity for rare direct criticism of the royal family, and of the political system - leading the Amir to declare that he would take "decisive action" to end the crisis. Ahmed al-Rubai, a prominent Kuwaiti columnist, fretted that
"Criticism has become commonplace as the parliament and government diverge sharply and the press wages campaigns against a number of subjects. All this is acceptable but, when the critique puts into question matters of state and constitutional legitimacy, people start worrying, especially as the ruling family has no tradition for the transfer of power."
Me, I'm all in favor of public criticism, without the "red lines", but I understand how worried elites get when those red lines start getting crossed. This bit from Rubai is interesting to me, since it fits well into my "al-Jazeera revolution" thesis:
For the first time in the history of the governing al Sabah family, members are forgetting that publicized conflicts with others represent a grave danger. They forget that difference can be solved behind closed doors and that no regime of ruling family in the world is free from disagreement and conflict but these are settled in a number of customary ways.
Sheikh Salem was not the first al Sabah to air his difference in public. For over a year, the country has been seeing members of the ruling family disagree in the press and satellite news channels.
Thanks to satellite TV, these things just can't be kept private anymore. Especially since ambitious politicians have every incentive to circumvent domestic controls and go to the wider public.
So what will happen? Beats me - as Greg Gause always says about Saudi-ology, "those who talk don't know, and those who know don't talk". For what it's worth, the BBC quotes al-Qabas, a leading Kuwaiti newspaper, saying that the Amir's praise for the Prime Minister had "effectively settled" the issue. Others aren't so sure. Islamist MPs are continuing to push for a change, and everyone seems anxious for some sign of royal family unity and effective leadership.
The Saudis handled the transition to Abdullah quite smoothly, after much anxious (or excited) speculation. Nobody has been paying much attention to the Kuwaiti succession, but wouldn't it be wild if that turned out to be the really messy one?
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