Odd Egyptian results

Preliminary reports of the Egyptian elections results are in. The Associated Press is reporting that Mubarak won 78-80% of the votes, while Ayman Nour won a surprising 12%, while the UPI is reporting that Mubarak won between 72-78%.  That's odd because most people thought al-Wafd candidate Nimaan Gomaa would place second... but he didn't even rate a mention in the AP story.   

But what's really odd is that the Egyptian election authorities are reporting a turnout of only 30%.  This undoubtedly reflects a strong need to inflate the actual turnout.  If 30% was the best they thought they could get away with, then real turnout was probably significantly lower.   

The 30% claimed turnout, combined with the inevitable deluge of documented irregularities and the absence of any independent monitoring, strikes me as sufficient to strip the election of any legitimacy.  Ayman Nour is already demanding a rerun of the election, which I don't expect to go anywhere. Now attention will no doubt turn to the scheduled Parliamentary elections - let's hope that those are a more serious affair. 

Sorry if I seem excessively cynical about the Egyptian elections.  It's because I am.  I appreciate all the fine folks trying to put the best face on it all - more power to y'all.  But I'm not in the mood. 

Comments

[Khwaga]

No cynicism needed at all. Even with a very superficial knowledge of Egyptian politics knows that in reality little has changed with the election itself. Now, the interesting question is whether those floodgates of democracy have some cracks in them. Regarding Egypt I think they have. Mubarak's regime is like the Aswan dam, built by incompetents and doomed to crumble in the long run. The future is necessary, and very very open in Egypt.

[Nell]

I read an article on Gary Farber's blog (no time to link the specific post, sue me) that normal urban turnout was about 4-5% and countryside 15%, so this 30% is surely hype.

For all I know Farber's source was this blog; apologies in advance if so.

[Dean Esmay]

I suppose it's how you're philosophically inclined to view the spread of democracy. If you believe it usually happens through gradual evolution and baby steps, then this is a significant election because, for all that it's a sham, it's moved Egypt closer toward real reform.

If you believe democracy generally only comes about through huge upheaval and trauma, like giving birth, you'll tend to be more cynical about "elections" like this one.

On Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays I'm in the optimist camp. On Tuesdays and Thursdays I'm in the pessimist camp. On weekends I try not to think about it.

[Ritzy Mabrouk]

And here is indeed the link to the list of Election Irregularities -- feel free to contribute.

http://missmabrouk.blogspot.com/2005/09/election-irregularity-report-89.html

[praktike]

I believe the new figure is going to be 88%, with 7.5% for Nour and 3% for Noman Gomaa.

[khr]

This comment by John Quiggin seems to hit the nail on the head:

http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2005/09/11/freedom-on-the-march/

(Just in case: if you read more of John's blog, you will see it is pure sarcasm)