The University of Jordan's Center for Strategic Studies has just released the 2005 edition of its annual survey on Democracy in Jordan. The findings will not be encouraging for those who want to present Jordan as a liberal, democratizing place. They largely confirm the repression and closure of the Jordanian political system and the deep disengagement of its citizens from politics. But they also show that democracy and freedom of expression rank a distant third in the priorities of the respondents, well behind poverty and unemployment, corruption, and the Palestinian issue.
The headlines of the two leading papers nicely captures the difference in their political stances. The liberal al-Ghad headline reads: "77% do not feel that they can criticize the government publicly." Al-Rai, the largest Jordanian daily, and the most pro-government, goes with: "Center for Strategic Studies survey shows that Jordan is a democratic country." Their stories follow suit, with al-Rai emphasizing the positive and al-Ghad highlighting the negative.
Here are the main findings of the survey:
- 77% say that they are not able to criticize the government or differ with its opinions publicly without fear of reprisals by the security services against themselves or their families. So much for Bush's "public square standard" - remember that? Back when he was so enamored with Natan Sharansky's idea that democracy meant that citizens would not fear to stand in the public square and speak their mind? Well, 77% of Jordanians don't feel that way. Positive spin: this is down from 80.6% who felt this way in 2004, and 83.2% who felt this way in 2003, so there's your freedom on the march for you: 3% more Jordanians per year don't worry that criticizing the government will land them in jail. Elaph quotes Hisham al-Tal, Deputy Prime Minister for Political Development, as expressing his deep concern that Jordan's youth is "afraid" of politics.
- Even more important from my point of view, given my obsessive focus
on media freedoms as a key ingredient for any meaningful democratic
reform: "Freedom of the press" ranked first among the freedoms which
need to be protected, at 62%; "freedom of opinion" was second at 61%. So Jordanians don't care much about "democracy" - according to this survey - but they do care quite a lot about media freedoms, and don't think that those freedoms are currently being protected. Reform promotion officials looking at Jordan, take note.
- More than 90% do not see the existing political parties as representing their aspirations.
- Only 39% are satisfied with the performance of the Parliament. 62% say that the existence of Parliament does not affect their lives either positively or negatively. 70% say that they will not vote to re-elect their current MP.
- Only 15% are satisfied with the performance of civil society, the professional associations, and other non-governmental organizations.
- 51% say that Jordan is a democratic country, while overwhelming numbers say that they want Jordan to be a democratic country.
- Internal problems are more important to Jordanians this year than foreign policy issues: 54% named poverity and unemployment their top priority; 28% named administrative and financial corruption their top priority; the Palestinian issue ranked third, with 8.9% naming it their top priority; and finally... finally... "improving democracy and freedom of expression" took fourth place, with 1.2% naming it their priority. Iraq ranked fifth, also with 1%.
- The "democracy index", which the CSS has asked every year since 1993, shows some improvement, up to 6.29 (with 10 being "totally democratic") - breaking the 6.0 mark for the first time in a decade. Jamil al-Nimri, writing in al-Ghad, suggests that this improvement probably reflects popular enthusiasm for the Parliament's showdown with the Badran government, although he admits that he has no real evidence for that.
- One surprise: the popularity of the Islamic Action Front declined from 14% in 2003 to 4% this year. The surveys offer no explanation for this shift, but Nimri, at least, saw it as the most puzzling surprise in the findings. The other "big" party, the National Constitutional Party headed by the powerful Transjordanian ethnic nationalist outgoing House Speaker Abd al-Hadi Majali, came in at a whopping 0.6%.
Overall, a picture of a pretty stagnant and inwardly oriented political system, with rampant dissatisfaction with both governmental and non-governmental organizations and a deep concern with the economy and with governmental corruption. Less support for democratic reform than some of us would like to see, and no opposition figures seen as offering anything resembling a credible alternative.
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