Free preview text of Fouad Ajami's "Autumn of the Autocrats" in the forthcoming issue of Foreign Affairs here (I'm sure that "Springtime for Hitler" was not an intentional reference). Punchline:
The entrenched systems of control in the Arab world are beginning to give way. It is a terrible storm, but the perfect antidote to a foul sky. The old Arab edifice of power, it is true, has had a way of surviving many storms. It has outwitted and outlived many predictions of its imminent demise.
But suddenly it seems like the autumn of the dictators. Something different has been injected into this fight. The United States -- a great foreign power that once upheld the Arab autocrats, fearing what mass politics would bring -- now braves the storm. It has signaled its willingness to gamble on the young, the new, and the unknown. Autocracy was once deemed tolerable, but terrorists, nurtured in the shadow of such rule, attacked the United States on September 11, 2001. Now the Arabs, grasping for a new world, and the Americans, who have helped usher in this unprecedented moment, together ride this storm wave of freedom.
What can you say? No surprises. I once joked that I could write the next Fouad Ajami article about Arab politics for half the price, with a less than 5% margin of error. I'm not sure that even I would have dared to work so many weather metaphors into such a short space, but that's why you pay full price for the original I suppose.
On the other hand, metaphors tedious or not, you are not now or ever likely to be in the position of the man you try so hard to sneer at...He publish in a recognized journal; you put up sillliness on net...free for all sorts of nonsense.
Posted by: david | April 20, 2005 at 12:59 PM
In the last BBC World episode of the Qatar Foundation's Doha Debates (April 05), Ajami argued on the pro-side of a "this house believes G.W.Bush has kicked open the door to democracy in the Middle East" motion.
His opening at the debate is vintage delusional. He compares Bush to Christopher Columbus. Whereas Columbus set off looking for spices and found America, Bush set off looking for WMDs and found freedom.
The only difference between listening to him and Bush is that Ajami is more conciliatory when speaking about US strategic interests as a reason for invading Iraq. Bushie just drones on and on about democracy in the Arab world as an altruistic project.
Rumor has it, Ajami spent the rest of his time in Doha peddling this silly polemic FA article (what evidence can possibly or convincingly be marshaled to support this claim across 22 Arab states).
And, as for it being the Autumn of the Autocrats, I guess time will prove that statement wrong. When winter does not come, Ajami will surely excuse himself through a rhetorical technicality to serve political power another day.
Posted by: Anon | April 20, 2005 at 01:18 PM
david - your words cut me to the bone. *giggle*
Posted by: the aardvark | April 20, 2005 at 02:17 PM
It may be autumn, but the leaves are still on the trees.
Posted by: praktike | April 20, 2005 at 02:34 PM
It may be autumn of the dictators, but the leaves are still on the trees. The winds muster, but can not compel a tragic sense of destiny. In Egypt, land of history, the clouds strain under the weight of a thousand lost hopes, of dreams which can not yet be dreamed. A mere glance across the pages of the once proud Egyptian press tells us all we need to know: rage, frustration, fulmination against America and all that it promises - there is nothing here to nourish these fragile weeds. Good men like the courageous liberal Ali Salem give us a glimpse of summer, but their light remains muted under the heavy night air. And yet, something stirs, something new under this dead light of the Arab sun...
Posted by: the aardvark | April 20, 2005 at 02:45 PM
Rather than a play on "springtime for Hitler," I would bet that the title was a play on Gabriel Garcia Marquez's "Autumn of the Patriarch"...
lc
Posted by: lamont cranston | April 20, 2005 at 03:06 PM
... one can hear the winds of change as they swirl around the green papyrus, whispering eternal verities that have for too long been denied, growing louder now ... the papyrus to struggles to grow--to grow against the weeds, to defy the cruel sun. Its shallow roots thirst for the water of democracy that laps up against the shores of denial. Lap, lap, lap. And all of those so-called "experts" who have shamefully, and yes, arrogantly proclaimed that people with brown skin do not yearn to be free can't ignore the lapping, now. Yet they fear the papyrus' growth, because it represents their own failure.
Posted by: praktike | April 20, 2005 at 03:15 PM
OK, OK, he's a little flowery, and his optimism is easily challenged, but I think his understanding of Syria's current predicatement is pretty apt. I think the most problematic part of the piece are his hints a) there are forces in Syria that might effectively challenge Asad and b) that if there were, Sunni Islamists wouldn't come out on top in such a power struggle.
Posted by: Avshalom Rubin | April 20, 2005 at 03:56 PM
Avshalom - you may be right, I actually didn't find Ajami's FA piece objectionable, just unsurprising and predictable. Except in one regard: it is interesting to see Ajami struggle (here and in the last couple of years) with his long-standing, deeply held pessimism and cynicism. Ajami the optimist sits uneasily with his temperament, I think, which could be creatively productive in other circumstances...
lamont - aha! That's a much more interesting reading of it... in that sense, a good title! But still, that Producers song just won't stop jingling... it's SPRINGtime for HITler...
Posted by: the aardvark | April 20, 2005 at 04:19 PM
I don't get it what's wrong with what Ajami said?
It clearly says that the US supported the Arab autocrats and now is gambling with young people power.
Of course, the US claims that the moves in the Arab world to "decmocratization" is due to Bush's actions. Who knows? But I think the autocratic regimes are wising up to the democracy path. They're now gambling that the US will shut up. Essentially they're calling Bush's democracy bluff.
Posted by: Ugarit | April 20, 2005 at 04:25 PM
And if it's not a bluff?
Posted by: Penta | April 20, 2005 at 06:13 PM
Even if it is a bluff it is better for the Arab peoples. It's probably not a bluff on Bush's part. However, Bush is not intellectually capable of determining what democracy is.
Actually, Bush's "democracy" is merely what is good for business. Hence, his insignificant pressure on Saudi Arabia while his excessive pressrure on Syria which is far closer to being democratic than Saudi Arabia. So I take it back he really does'nt care about democracy unless it can improve business relations
Posted by: ugart | April 20, 2005 at 06:59 PM
Not only would the Aardvark do it for less, he'd do it without snagging titles from others! -->El otoƱo del patriarca (Garcia Marquez).
Marquez' performs a tour-de-force in writing a novel as a run-on sentence, BTW.
Posted by: Nur al Cubicle | April 20, 2005 at 08:46 PM
Sheeesh! When will the Ajami/Friedmans of the world cite poor Turkish ex-PM Ecevit, who made all those "winds of democracy blowing in the Middle East" claims some 10 years ago.
It's plagiarism, I tell you!
Posted by: donzelion | April 21, 2005 at 04:52 PM
OT
Jordanian Sues CNN Over False Report
Posted by: sofia | April 21, 2005 at 07:48 PM
you put up sillliness on net...free for all sorts of nonsense
Oooooooh Snap! Somebody got PWN3D!!!!
Posted by: Hassan | April 22, 2005 at 04:53 PM