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February 20, 2005



I have two other theories.

1. That the non-Da'wa members of the UIA are using Chalabi as leverage to get other things they want; e.g. SCIRI won't support Ja'affari unless they're given the Interior Ministry.

2. That the Chalabi position on "Iraqization," negotiating a new SOFA w/ the US, and deep de-Ba'athification is actually favored by most members of the UIA, whereas Ja'affari isn't actually willing to go as far.

The thing about his files is: who would he blackmail within UIA? Are there people on there with shady pasts?

the aardvark

All possible. It's just that the files seem like a giant pink hippo sitting in the middle of the room that nobody is talking about.

Anyway, your question about "who would he blackmail" suggests a failure of imagination. Having access to the kinds of information which Saddam's mukhabarat would have had gives infinite pressure points - a person's family, sex life, debts, the time you snuck out of seminary and got drunk just once. And if that fails, a threat to leak such information even if it isn't true could be persuasive... especially since everyone knows Chalabi has these files, and would assume that information coming from him could be true.

So I'm not saying that this IS the reason, just that it seems like a factor which we should be thinking about to explain a surprising outcome.


Why would the public believe the files are true? Because Chalabi announced he had some files? Is his credibility as low in Iraq as it is here?

I would hope the Americans have 'asked' Chalabi for the info on the 'cooperating' Americans or they seized it months ago.

nur al-cubicle

If Chelabi his blackmailing that many people, his days are numbered.

Andrew Reeves

You know, I've said this before, but it bears repeating:

A decently intelligent con man can get someone to participate in a game of three card monte. A smarter than average con artist can trick a man into squandering his savings on a fraudelent investment. A con man with a PhD in mathematics from the University of Chicago can get the United States of America to conquer a country.



I've been out of the Chalabi loop for a while.

Was Chalabi working for the Iranians? Was he making short term profiteering with selective US secrets? Or was he being smeared by the Iranian rumours?

He seemed to disappear from the radar and I for one was surprised he was still around.

He really is a survivor;)


wasn't chalabi involved in faking lots of documents, I think I did read a story a while back about that... that he had document faking machines and what not... anybody?


Omar, former CIA agent Robert Baer did charge Chalabi with running a forgery shop.

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