Chalabi's files

Everyone keeps wondering how Ahmed Chalabi is back in the mix in Iraq, and - according to Ahmed Chalabi - currently has majority support within the UIA Parliamentary bloc to become Prime Minister. I certainly wouldn't claim to know what's going on in those smoke filled rooms.  But as people struggle to explain this bizarre turn of events, I'm surprised that one point seems to have been collectively forgotten:  after the fall of Baghdad, Chalabi and his INC gained exclusive and full control over Saddam's intelligence files.   

How many files?  As the AEI's Reuel Gerecht put it, "the INC has an enormous amount of files from the Mukhabarat building."  The phrase "25 tons of files" was thrown around a lot. 

Would he use those files to attack his enemies?  As Ahmed Chalabi put it, "I would like to say that we have captured a great many files of Saddam's services, and there is astounding information about the extent of their networks and their efforts to recruit foreign nationals, including Americans, to work in the Mukhabarat, and I think this is something that must be pursued. The files contain a great deal of information about how they compromised people, how they bought agents and how they influenced foreign leaders."  Nor was that an isolated incident:   "In interviews with Abu Dhabi television and Newsweek magazine, Mr Chalabi has already threatened to use the papers to damage the Jordanian royal family and the satellite television service al-Jazeera - organisations with which he has had long-running disputes." 

These files represent a whole lot of blackmail material, information on one's rivals and potential partners, and - put bluntly - power.   Such a source of power couldn't help but be helpful when it comes to finding leverage over, say, about 71 members of the UIA bloc. And Chalabi has long proven his willingness to use such leverage.   

Back before Chalabi's fall from American grace, it was fairly commonplace to regard these files as a key to his political power in the new Iraq:   "Chalabi holds the ultimate weapons -- several dozen tons of documents and individual files seized by his Iraqi National Congress from Saddam Hussein's secret security apparatus."   

But lately, not so much.   Not a single hit came up on Google News on the topic, and while it's very possible that I've missed discussions of it in my blog-skimming, it certaintly hasn't jumped out at me.

Is this the reason why Chalabi has resurfaced?  I don't know.  But if Chalabi somehow manages to wind up as Prime Minister via a UIA secret ballot, you'd think it might be part of the mix. 

Comments

[praktike]

I have two other theories.

1. That the non-Da'wa members of the UIA are using Chalabi as leverage to get other things they want; e.g. SCIRI won't support Ja'affari unless they're given the Interior Ministry.

2. That the Chalabi position on "Iraqization," negotiating a new SOFA w/ the US, and deep de-Ba'athification is actually favored by most members of the UIA, whereas Ja'affari isn't actually willing to go as far.

The thing about his files is: who would he blackmail within UIA? Are there people on there with shady pasts?

[the aardvark]

All possible. It's just that the files seem like a giant pink hippo sitting in the middle of the room that nobody is talking about.

Anyway, your question about "who would he blackmail" suggests a failure of imagination. Having access to the kinds of information which Saddam's mukhabarat would have had gives infinite pressure points - a person's family, sex life, debts, the time you snuck out of seminary and got drunk just once. And if that fails, a threat to leak such information even if it isn't true could be persuasive... especially since everyone knows Chalabi has these files, and would assume that information coming from him could be true.

So I'm not saying that this IS the reason, just that it seems like a factor which we should be thinking about to explain a surprising outcome.

[EG]

Why would the public believe the files are true? Because Chalabi announced he had some files? Is his credibility as low in Iraq as it is here?

I would hope the Americans have 'asked' Chalabi for the info on the 'cooperating' Americans or they seized it months ago.

[nur al-cubicle]

If Chelabi his blackmailing that many people, his days are numbered.

[Andrew Reeves]

You know, I've said this before, but it bears repeating:

A decently intelligent con man can get someone to participate in a game of three card monte. A smarter than average con artist can trick a man into squandering his savings on a fraudelent investment. A con man with a PhD in mathematics from the University of Chicago can get the United States of America to conquer a country.

[symptomless]

Question:

I've been out of the Chalabi loop for a while.

Was Chalabi working for the Iranians? Was he making short term profiteering with selective US secrets? Or was he being smeared by the Iranian rumours?

He seemed to disappear from the radar and I for one was surprised he was still around.

He really is a survivor;)

[Omar]

wasn't chalabi involved in faking lots of documents, I think I did read a story a while back about that... that he had document faking machines and what not... anybody?

[praktike]

Omar, former CIA agent Robert Baer did charge Chalabi with running a forgery shop.