What's Next for International Relations?

Like, I suspect, many people I have wildly mixed feelings right now. Assuming the current results stand, which seems likely, America has failed. It appears that Kerry could not overcome Osama bin Laden's pro-Bush intervention or the willful ignorance of reality on the part of one portion of the electorate.

On the one hand, I feel a deep sadness for America, and a real fear for the future of the world and the country. We had a chance, as a nation, to use our democracy to impose accountability on a failed president. We didn't. Despite all the amazing efforsts of so many Americans - special gratitude to Wisconsin, along with the rest of the real American heartland - the cold fact is that, given the popular vote and the likely allocation of electoral votes, Bush has won a narrow mandate for his policies.

Which means: no illusions. This is who we are, for better or for worse. Much of the world, and many Americans, have argued forcefully over the past few years that this administration does not reflect the real face of America. That argument becomes more difficult now.

So, at the risk of offending those of you who no doubt don't want to see any concessions yet (and writing without having read any commentary at all yet, and without even checking the news to see what's going on in Ohio) I'm going to think aloud just briefly: what does Bush's narrow victory mean for the world?

Here are a couple of things which come to mind:

*we now can be pretty confident that America's image abroad will not improve for the forseeable future. International relations and foreign policy specialists should now prepare for an era in which anti-Americanism and an absence of American soft power hardens into a relatively fixed character of the international system. I think that a Kerry victory would have produced an immediate and startling - if potentially temporary - reversal in this, as much of the world celebrated Bush's demise and gave Kerry a window of opportunity to turn things around. Not anymore. For the forseeable future, popular anti-Americanism is likely to persist.

*it would not surprise me if a number of governments, on the other hand, which had been recalcitrant now become more helpful towards the United States. Most foreign leaders have been hedging their bets for months, holding out either to influence the American election or to not prejudice their interests after the election. With that strategic gaming over, I'd expect some degree of increased international cooperation by self-interested governments even if international public opinion remains hostile - less than Kerry would have delivered, but some.

*others will, of course, disagree, but I am strongly convinced that Osama bin Laden and other Islamist radicals are dancing, singing, and throwing flowers in anticipation of a Bush victory. Bush's foreign policy serves their interests in so many ways, and now they don't have to face the risk that Kerry might have been a more formidable adversary. Bush's win will strengthen radical arguments in the Middle East and further decimate the already thin ranks of the moderates. The hopes for meaningful democratic reform in the region are now significantly lower, as is any real hope of progress in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, which will further radicalize and alienate Arab and Muslim publics. Al Hurra TV and Radio Sawa aren't going to help.

*perhaps this goes without saying, but Iraq will continue to deteriorate. Bush and his supporters had to deny the realities in Iraq for campaign purposes, but the reality remains. And it is ugly and getting uglier. I'd like to hope that Bush will now get serious about fixing it... we shall see.

*The budget deficit and the unsustainability of American military deployments overseas are going to impose some pretty harsh restrictions on foreign policy (and domestic policy). I'm not ready to go quite as far as Gideon Rose, who I seem to remember arguing that these constraints would handcuff either administration. Nor do I think a draft is likely - I never did. But these will be extremely serious constraints which Iraq will continue to exacerbate.

I badly wanted Kerry to win. I considered it - and still consider it - the only chance to put the country and the world on the right path before it was too late. I desperately hoped to see a moral accounting for Abu Ghuraib and so much more. I desperately hoped to see responsible Realists and multilateralists retake control of our foreign policy and get America and the world back on the right track. Perhaps a second term Bush administration will do those things, despite all indications to the contrary. If so, I'll applaud the shift. If not, well... it's too soon for that.

Because let's be clear: thanks to Bush, the next President was always going to face an incredible mess. For better or worse, it will now be exclusively a Republican mess. No blaming Democrats for 'losing Iraq' - it will be Bush who loses it. No blaming Democrats for the budget disaster. No blaming Democrats if there is another terrorist attack on the United States (god forbid).

Bush has been running things for years with an eye towards surviving yesterday. Now he will have to finally pay the tab. Unfortunately, so will all the rest of us.

P.S. if it turns out that my assumptions are wrong about the Presidential outcome, and Kerry somehow wins, then the above points might be a very interesting baseline by which to evaluate Kerry's performance. But enough for now.... off to work.

UPDATE: John Quiggin has a similar perspective, and a somewhat hopeful comparison to Reagan (the real Reagan, not the mythological one) in his second term.

Comments

[No Preference]

"I considered it - and still consider it - the only chance to put the country and the world on the right path before it was too late. I desperately hoped to see a moral accounting for Abu Ghuraib and so much more."

You put my thoughts into words much better than I could have. The only comment I have is on the following:

"I'd like to hope that Bush will now get serious about fixing (Iraq)... we shall see."

I suspect that Bush and his Pentagon will now get serious about blowing up Iraq. I hope I'm wrong.

[praktike]

Observe the next three months as the GOP builds up its "stab in the back" case.

[nur al cubicle]

Sigh.

Well, I'm reading in Le Monde that a big persuasion operation is underway to discredit IAEA's ElBaradei. There seems to be a floated accusation that EB is veiling Egypt's nuclear effort. Seems like a crock.

It's disturbing to see such a development the day after.

[Malta]

I couldnt say it better. Here in Portugal, most hoped a Bush defeat. I think most europeans except Blair and Putin wanted a Bush defeat. It's unbelievable. More than 58 million american «retards». Well, you pay your taxes, you've the right to choose your own president, at your own image. That's the average american citizen. He looks like a chimp with a banana, sorry. Probably's not so dangerous as his staff. The guys behind him are the dangerous ones... whatever, 4 more years with a big mess all around... for the 55 million swho voted Kerry I wish you good luck, dont give up...

[tunesmith]

I know this argument has been had many times before, but I just don't see why Osama would prefer Bush. To me that sounds like Osama advocates terrorism just for the sake of terrorism, rather than in reaction to something that he's trying to change. I guess I believe that as evil as Osama is, he believes he is protesting something. But if Bush's policies are more likely to exacerbate the things Osama is protesting, then I don't see why he'd prefer Bush.

[Craig in Austin]

That's the average american citizen....

It's only half.

[aaa]

Where is the outrage at the use of easily hackable electronic voting machines, without a voter-verifiable paper trail?

In my view the use of these machines thoroughly delegitimizes the election results. Don't be so quick to try to find fault with Democrats when it is very likely that the Republicans have stolen yet another election.

More information here:

http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/003197.html

and here:

http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/003214.html

and here:

http://www.tompaine.com/articles/kerry_won_.php
http://www.flashpoints.net/#2004-11-03
http://www.accuracy.org/press_releases/PR110304.htm
http://politics.slashdot.org/politics/04/11/06/1857203.shtml?tid=103&tid=226&tid=172&tid=126
http://www.bluelemur.com/index.php?p=388
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/10103931.htm?1c
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20041105/ap_on_el_pr/voting_problems
http://www.newbernsj.com/SiteProcessor.cfm?Template=/GlobalTemplates/Details.cfm&StoryID=18297&Section=Local
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/1105-25.htm
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/3/52213/1921
http://nyc.indymedia.org/newswire/display/130301/index.php
http://portland.indymedia.org/en/2004/11/302395.shtml
http://www.wired.com/news/evote/0,2645,65623,00.html?tw=wn_tophead_2
http://www.movingideas.org/activism/networks/post_election.html
http://www.iht.com/bin/print_ipub.php?file=%2Farticles%2F2004%2F11%2F02%2Fnews%2Fobserve.html

[Hamilton Lovecraft]

This is who we are, for better or for worse. Much of the world, and many Americans, have argued forcefully over the past few years that this administration does not reflect the real face of America. That argument becomes more difficult now.

The GOP and the Bush administration, more so than the average politician, has been engaged in widespread deception of the electorate about who they are and what their goals are. I feel that many of the 59 million who voted for Bush honestly didn't know what they were voting for. Part of that is on their heads because they haven't been inquisitive enough, but part of that is on the heads of the mass media. Living in a big city and having a fast internet connection, it's almost impossible for me not to hear seven sides of every story, but that simply isn't the way man rural Americans live.

Forgive them; they know not what they've done.

[John Owens]

No blaming Democrats if there is another terrorist attack on the United States (god forbid).
While I agree that it would be pretty difficult to peg most of the rest of those outcomes on the Democrats, I think if there were another terrorist attack on the U.S. in the next four years, they'd probably find it fairly simple (in many senses) to pin that on the Democrats. Probably using the usual talk of how we're soft on terror, too understanding, moral relativism, blah blah blah.