So, it looks like the battle between American trying to maintain indirect control through caucuses and Shi'ites demanding full democracy is leading, as I feared, to the worst possible outcome: devolving authority to the unelected, unpopular, unrepresentative, and deeply untrustworthy IGC. Certain members of the IGC whose names sort of rhyme with JollyBee have been angling for this all along - to find some way to get a leadership position without messy elections or popular support. The caucus based transition scheme, while unwieldy and deeply flawed - and unlikely to produce a genuinely legitimate government - at least had the merit of being elected however indirectly.
Back when Chalabi endorsed the idea of early elections, I had been thrown for a loop, trying to spot the setup. Now the game becomes more clear. By endorsing early elections, he helped to scupper the caucuses and build momentum towards some alternative. But he knew that the longer the issue remained in negotiation, the less likely it would be that the necessary preparations for elections could really be completed by June 1. And now, after months of seemingly endless politics around the issue, the clock has shortened enough that Brahimi - and evidently even Sistani - now have to admit that in fact it will be impossible to get things together by June 1. So by helping to keep the issue alive, Chalabi contributed in his own small way to ensuring that no solution could be found in time.
And hence, the default... devolving authority to a (possibly expanded) Council. Just until the elections, of course, which will be planned and carried out after the Americans are safely gone, or at least no longer formally and directly in control. And really, after that, what could possibly go wrong? How could the Council possibly resist calls for elections when Bremer is gone, and the civil violence is continuing, and the unelected Council - which wants only the best for Iraq, never thinking of its own selfish interests - well, you can see where this is going.
Great for Chalabi... not so great for Iraq, for America, or for the hopes for a democratic Iraq. The worst possible outcome, never actually chosen by anyone.. arrived at through strategic delays and default.
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