A while ago I posted a couple of comments about the situation in Iran, speculating that this crisis between the reformists and the Council of Guardians might be different. That the reformists might finally grow a backbone, that the Council might be forced to back down, and that it might be - as Gandalf so majestically put it in the Two Towers - "the turning of the tide."
Jonathan Edelstein responded that he found it more likely that the Khamenei would negotiate a compromise calibrated to take the wind out of the reformist sails while preserving the core of the conservative assault. And for a while, that seemed to be exactly what was happening.
But now, things look like they might be taking the turn that I had originally suggested. If a third of the Parliament really resigns, and the Parliamentary elections are really cancelled - and this is probably still just manuevering and brinksmanship - then my "real crisis" scenario suddenly looks more plausible. Nothing much more to add here... just a fascinating situation continuing to develop.
The amazing thing is that the Guardians didn't even take Khamene'i's very heavy hint that they should reinstate the incumbent MPs. I'm not sure if the Guardians have their own agenda or if Khamene'i told them something different in private, but they certainly seem intent on forcing the issue.
Posted by: Jonathan Edelstein | February 02, 2004 at 05:24 PM