In Iran's great squabble over Parliamentary candidates, Ali Khamenei has finally intervened:
"Iran's supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, broke his silence Wednesday on the barring of reformist candidates from parliamentary races, saying the incumbents among them should be allowed to run. Ayatollah Khamenei, meeting with members of the anti-reformist Guardian Council on Wednesday evening, also said nonincumbent candidates should be considered on their merits rather than rejected out of hand."
Jonathan Edelstein got it right in the comments on my last Iran post (and go see his blog, too): a typical Khamenei maneuver - aimed at giving enough concessions to stop the reformists from storming the barricades, but not enough to really give the reformists victory. If some 80 incumbents are allowed to run, that still leaves about 3,000 candidates to be judged "on their merits." And we have a pretty good idea how the current Council of Guardians might view their "merits," in the absence of firm and direct orders from above.
If events follow their usual course, Khatami and the reformist mainstream will now back down and call for calm, while the frustrated and angry opposition will continue to fume but be impotent without support from Khatami. Early reports suggest that the governors and other officials threatening to resign are, in fact, backing down. And the steady, creeping delegitimization of the system will continue.
Of course, it's still possible that Khatami and his allies will instead see a moment to press their advantage, and push Khamenei to take a clear position in their favor. Some reformist MPs - including Khatami's brother - are saying that they will continue their sit-in, for example. Khamenei's ruling could still be an opening bid rather than the last word. But past experience would suggest that the wind will be taken out of the reformist sails yet again.
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