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June 10, 2008

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alle

Have not had time to read this yet, but that won't stop me from commenting: I thought the Nathan Brown paper on the Hadas/M. B. defeat in Kuwait gave hope -- from an M. B. perspective -- that it might only be temporary, and that they would do better next time. Not necessarily great, but better.

This, because Hadas has, unlike competing groups, laid a reasonably solid organizational groundwork, which remains a good base to stand on even if it somehow fell through this time. Their loss he seemed to attribute mostly to bad luck, the failure of crucial electoral alliances and, as it turned out, unrealistic hopes for the five-district system. I did get a feeling that he wasn't dealing enough with their ideological/political appeal (or lack thereof), or with the actual strengths/weaknesses of the competition, but even so, the Salafi bloc seems to have been quite dependent on the tribal base of many of their candidates. So from a "pure" ideological perspective, are they really as strong as the elections appear to show?

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