Lebanon's crisis not really a Sunni-Shia crisis (unless it is)

A fair amount of the coverage of the escalating crisis in Lebanon is framing it as a Sunni-Shia conflict.  I don't have much to say about what's happening inside of Lebanon - I'd recommend checking out reflections by Brian Katulis, Abu "my pseudonym has outlived its utility" Muqawama, and many others following events there closely -  but I did want to point out something important in the wider arena.  Compared to the near-hysteria which broke out across the Arab world over Sunni-Shia conflict in late 2006, the Sunni-Shia dimension is very visibly not being driven by mainstream Islamist movements on either side. In the last day,

• the Muslim Brotherhood released a statement calling on all sides to end violence in the streets and to engage in national dialogue to end the crisis.
• Mohammed Fadlallah, the extremely influential Shia marja'a who is widely considered to be the spiritual guide for Hezbollah, warned all sides against falling into the trap of sectarian discourse and called for dialogue among all parties.
• Yusuf al-Qaradawi, one of the most influential Sunni Islamists from the Muslim Brotherhood trend, called for an end to the bloodshed and a unification of ranks against common external enemies.
• the popular MB-aligned website Islam Online is reprinting a whole slate of articles and opinions by various figures over the years denouncing Sunni-Shia tensions, including a 2006 statement by Egypt's Grand Mufti Ali Gomaa, a 2007 article criticizing the politicization of sectarian differences by the influential Egyptian columnist Salamah Ahmed Salamah, and more. 
• Fahmy Howeydi, the influential Egyptian Islamist columnist, said that he understands the distress and concern people feel, but that political struggles must not be allowed to rip apart the Islamic umma.

I could add more if I had the time, but hopefully this will suffice to make the point.  There's plenty of anti-Iranian and anti-Hezbollah agitation out there in the Arab media discourse on Lebanon the last few days, especially in the Saudi media and in some of the Lebanese media (and also anti-Shia discourse lurking in the corners) - and Ayman al-Zawahiri noticably focused on Lebanon in his last appearance -  but it isn't coming from Muslim Brotherhood circles or from key Shia figures such as Fadlallah.   Whatever happens in the ongoing struggle between the two Lebanese coalitions and their external patrons, I don't see this crisis offering much support for meta-narratives about popular Sunni-Shia conflicts bubbling up to the surface.  Which doesn't mean that those hoping to promote such conflict won't try to frame it in that way...

Comments

[Beirut]

If you think this is not a sectarian war then you are mistaken. An emotional outburst by a TV anchor from the now forcibly shut Future TV station (owned by Harriri) captures the essence of what is going on in the minds of residents in Beirut.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnwQ_PhDr9c

[RB]

You might be right, Marc, that the conflict in Lebanon isn't feeding or reflecting a wave of Sunni-Shi'ite regional sectarianism.

However, within Lebanon it is a deeply sectarian conflict, and growing more so over time. Certainly, the tensions between the external patrons of M8 and M14 in Lebanon exacerbate this--but they don't create it.

[G Hazeltine]

What in the world - Abu Muqawama maybe, for a military intellectual point of view - but the Katulus piece is just garbage.

"Coming in advance of President Bush’s trip to the Middle East next week, the instability in Lebanon is a reminder of the dangers that can emerge from neglect and inattention and an approach to the Middle East too heavily focused on Iraq. Less than a year after the violent takeover of the Gaza Strip by Hamas, another Middle Eastern civil war in bubbling over – this time with a group that some have called the “A team” of global terrorists which has used violence to seize control of the capital city – hardly the result President Bush was hoping for when he prematurely declared that freedom was on the march in Lebanon and elsewhere in 2005. Ironically, the global trends in freedom have stalled and retrenched on President Bush’s watch, according to Freedom House."

"Violent takeover of the Gaza Strip by Hamas"??? "Hezbollah is the "A-Team of Global Terrorists"?? "Freedom was on the march"? "Global trends in freedom"?? Awful!!

Nir Rosen's "The End of the New Middle East" lays it out clearly for those who haven't been following, and aren't vested in COIN.

http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/archives/2008/05/the_end_of_the/

And no, the problem in Lebanon is not neglect. Not neglect. As you well know.

What a shameful post.