stuff to read that is not stuff by me

I'm looking in to the Egyptian MB situation right now, and a slew of other things.  In the meantime, here are some new or very recent articles on Iraq that might interest you:

• The Price of the Surge, by Steven Simon (Foreign Affairs).  "Some backers of the surge even argue that the Iraqi civil war is over and that victory on Washington's terms is in sight -- so long as the United States has the will to see its current efforts through to their conclusion. Unfortunately, such claims misconstrue the causes of the recent fall in violence and, more important, ignore a fatal flaw in the strategy. The surge has changed the situation not by itself but only in conjunction with several other developments: the grim successes of ethnic cleansing, the tactical quiescence of the Shiite militias, and a series of deals between U.S. forces and Sunni tribes that constitute a new bottom-up approach to pacifying Iraq. The problem is that this strategy to reduce violence is not linked to any sustainable plan for building a viable Iraqi state. If anything, it has made such an outcome less likely, by stoking the revanchist fantasies of Sunni Arab tribes and pitting them against the central government and against one another. In other words, the recent short-term gains have come at the expense of the long-term goal of a stable, unitary Iraq. Despite the current lull in violence, Washington needs to shift from a unilateral bottom-up surge strategy to a policy that promotes, rather than undermines, Iraq's cohesion. That means establishing an effective multilateral process to spur top-down political reconciliation among the major Iraqi factions. And that, in turn, means stating firmly and clearly that most U.S. forces will be withdrawn from Iraq within two or three years. Otherwise, a strategy adopted for near-term advantage by a frustrated administration will only increase the likelihood of long-term debacle."

• Uprooted and Unstable:  Meeting Urgent Humanitarian Needs in Iraq.  by Refugees International.  Apropo of yesterday's conference. "describes a vacuum of humanitarian assistance created by the failure of the Iraqi government and the international community to administer aid to civilians. During a mission inside Iraq, researchers for Refugees International found that Iraqi militias are creating a Hezbollah-like dynamic by becoming major humanitarian providers of food, clothing, oil and other basic resources. As a result, militias are recruiting civilians, including displaced Iraqis, at a rapid pace.  Refugees International cautions that failure to address this problem will have dire consequences for the humanitarian and security situation in Iraq. The report recommends that aid organizations, including the UN, navigate the complex landscape by partnering with local groups inside Iraq, and discourages refugee returns until more effective aid channels are established."

• Provincial Politics in Iraq: Fragmentation or New Awakening?  by Michael Knights and Eamon McCarthy, WINEP. Abstract:  "In explaining how subnational governance works in Iraq, they assess the wide range of factors in play at the local and federal levels, from the "Concerned Local Citizens" and "Awakening" movements emerging in various provinces to uncertain legislative initiatives in Baghdad. They also discuss the international community's role in strengthening the government's capacities at the local level without making the country too reliant on foreign assistance. The new Iraq is in need of a formula that can give its diverse provinces and regions sufficient freedom to prosper. As this paper argues, failure to achieve such balance could result in a return to autocracy or complete fragmentation." 

Comments

[Yousef]

"He considers it [Egypt] a farm and a farm for his family." - Yusef Nada

Interesting choice of words in the context of wheat shortages.

munayyer@umd.edu

[Noah]

I think most of us agree with Simon's assessment that the surge has done little to push the Green Zoneen any closer to national reconciliation. But has the surge really made the outcome of a viable state less likely? As late as April 2007, it made sense for observers such as Muhammed Abu Ramman to write of the Sunni Arab arena:

"In the balance of power, various estimates and reports indicate that al-Qaeda is the most militarily powerful organization."

(or something like that... see: http://www.alghad.jo/?article=6187)

The sahwa/salvation began in Anbar in the summer of 06, but did not spread to Baghdad and other Sunni areas until mainstream insurgent leaders joined in spring 07 (Abu al-Abd says his guys joined that May). Obviously, this timing had something to do with the change in US strategy.

Thus, since the beginning of the surge, al-Qaeda has gone from being arguably the strongest Sunni military force on the ground to the weakened pariah we see today. Most of this decline in influence is its own fault, and of course it could be reversible.

But al-Qaeda's weakening is our strategic success, both in denying them a base of operations in the heart of the Arab world and in encouraging national reconciliation, since al-Qeada's power in the Sunni sphere and ability to blow up Baghdad markets at will rendered talk in the Green Zone largely irrelevant.

This isn't to deny the dangers of the bottom-up strategy. I just don't see how any meaningful top-down progress could have been achieved so long as al-Qaeda held what likely amounted (and may still amount) to a veto.

[nur al-cubicle]

Geez, 25 Muslim Brotherhood leaderes in Egypt were given 10 years without parole for "money laundering and financing a forbidden organization" (themselves!), including Hassan Malek and Khaïrat al-Shater (no appeal allowed).

[Zathras]

I agree with Noah upthread that Simon and some other commentators get carried away with their disapproval of Bush administration policy in Iraq, ending up ascribing everything that goes wrong in that country to American failures.

In fact, if your problem is sectarian violence, it makes perfect sense to direct your energies at suppressing the groups most likely to pursue such violence -- the al Qaeda in Iraq types among the Sunni Arabs, and elements of Sadr's militia among the Shiites. That is what the Americans under Petraeus have done. It would be foolish to claim that their tactical success is a step toward "victory" -- the definition of victory used by the administration is such that it can only be won by Iraqis, not by the American military -- but it makes no more sense to deny the tactical success Petraeus has achieved thus far.

Fundamentally the surge has won us a breathing space. For what? For the Iraqi political leadership to do what it has given no sign that it is willing to, or for the country to fall apart again in a wave of bloodletting. Not, unfortunately, for the United States to begin cutting its losses from this adventure, as it might have done. Not every aspect of the administration's war policy needs to be a disaster for the policy itself to be badly wrong.

[G Hazeltine]

Perhaps you Mr. Lynch add this morning's post at Missing Links to his list.

[G Hazeltine]

Perhaps Mr. Lynch should add this morning's post at Missing Links to his list.

[thomas]

"Meanwhile, the Iraqi government said 33,121 detainees have been released since a general amnesty went into effect in February. Spokesman Abdul-Sattar al-Berqdar said judicial reviews of thousands of other cases were continuing. He said that so far the reviews had identified 9,726 detainees who would not be released because they did not fall within the amnesty."

What's going on here? What has the Iraqi press been saying about the detainees being released? It seems like a significant enough number at this point that this story would be more than just Bayraqdar announcing a new number every couple weeks. The above was from the last 3 lines of a New York Times article that came out a couple hours ago on the US military announcing the death of 2 Marines in Anbar. About every week or two there's a new number, and it's always as a sidenote comment at the end of news reports. Never any pictures of people being reunited with their families, never any comments by Maliki or anyone else... just Bayraqdar announcing a new number. I usually end up seeing the numbers on news round-ups from Al-Sharqiyah TV, but the brief translated developments that are reported typically don't explain any further. If you have any insight into what's going on, I'd be interested in hearing it.

[Alanna]

I used to work for International Medical Corp, on the Iraq portfolio, and we spent an awful lot of time telling anybody who would listen that if the US didn't provide assistance to IDPs, then the militias would. I hate to see it happening.