Rumors of Mubarak's death

Source:  al-Araby

Rumors that Hosni Mubarak had died swept through Egyptian discourse over the last ten days.  Unable to squelch the rumors, the Egyptian regime had to resort to releasing (fairly unconvincing) pictures of an alive Mubarak and an interview with Mubarak denying the rumors, and then went on a propaganda offensive accusing the Muslim Brotherhood of spreading the rumors in order to foster instability (it later added Hamas and "Arab media" to the list of conspirators ... and, I kid you not, according to al-Ahram is opening an official investigation into the treatment of the rumors by the opposition press).

The best commentary I've yet seen comes from Egyptian columnist Hassan Nafaa, who argued that the incredibly rapid spread of the rumor and the tenor of private discussions about the possibility that it was true carried extremely important lessons about the current state of Egyptian politics.  The power of the rumor mill testifies to the lack of credibility of the official media and of the government, since Egyptians clearly did not feel that they could trust the information on offer from those sources.   This is not a new story of course, since Egypt's official media have been in a state of free-fall for quite a while.  But as Abdullah al-Sanawi argues this is  something quite extraordinary:  journalists and citizens and politicians trying to find out if their own President was live were resorting to calling foreign ambassadors.  As the official media offered statements devoid of any evidence, which people simply didn't trust, the story quickly spread to the Arab satellite television stations like al-Jazeera and from there to the foreign media - but they couldn't get any reliable information out of the regime either.  All in all, the episode demonstrates the dangers of a regime's lost credibility and of a corroded official public sphere.

The other dimension is more substantively political.  The intensity of concern about Mubarak's fate reflects the current state of political polarization, driven by the regime's confrontation with the Muslim Brotherhood,  the frustration of reform efforts after the fiasco of the Constitutional amendments, and the still inncomplete efforts to secure Gamal Mubarak's path to succeeding his father as President.  The ambiguity surrounding the succession creates tremendous uncertainty: there is still no Vice President; according to Nafaa, Gamal has been increasingly behaving like an Acting President rather than a President in Waiting but hasn't yet shored up his support;  nobody has a clue where the military really stands on the succession;  and plenty of people are fanning the fears of a Muslim Brotherhood takeover if Mubarak goes.   

This is precisely the sort of moment which political scientists studying political transitions look for - divided elites, unclear international environment, a powerful opposition movement positioning itself as a moderate alternative, widespread public discontent.   Of course, that doesn't really tell us anything about what it might transition into - the teleology of 'transition to democracy' really doesn't hold up, I don't think.  If Hosni Mubarak really has been incapacitated then we're going to be looking at an extremely tense transitional period, with the 'center' disappearing at the height of multiple political struggles.  Even if he hasn't, the wildfire spread of the rumor and the tenor of the discussions suggest tremendous uncertainty about Egypt's political future.   

UPDATE:  I've just been informed that Ibrahim Eissa, the courageous editor of the independent weekly al-Dustour, has become the first journalist arrested on charges of spreading false rumors of Mubarak's death. 

Comments

[moloch-agonistes]

Thanks for this commentary. Disturbing news about Ibrahim Eissa.

It's an interesting paradox. The more incompetent the Mubarak clique at ensuring the succession, the more Gamal has to rely on fearmongering about the Muslim Brotherhood--and the more real social and political cachet they gain. If the seemingly inevitable then happens and they end up taking power, the jihadists will claim credit though they had little or nothing to do with it, in much the same way that Reagan and the American right wing claimed credit for "beating" the Soviet Union. Rather, credit would properly go to the U.S. for continuing to back a horse with a swayback and a bum leg, shoring him up with hard currency despite his obvious inability to do anything like build a lasting multigenerational power base. Given the stupidity and ignorance with which we choose our strongmen, it's like an anti-Darwinian process out there.

But an Egypt ruled by the Muslim Brotherhood is unappealing from several influential points of view, not least in view of the Hamas side of the equation. So in effect, what has begun now among the Egyptian elite is a series of auditions for dictator. Can't imagine the U.S. State department (or OVP) is clapping much thus far.

[ab initio]

Interesting!

What if Mubarak is actually dead and they can't get Gamal in and the army splits and the Brotherhood come to power.

Will Cheney, Israel and the AIPAC Dems support an invasion?

[Anas Elshamy]

Hello Mr Abu Aardvark,

I am an Egyptian student in the Faculty of Commerce & Business Administration, Helwan University.

I wrote this article concerning this issue
http://www.anaselshamy.com/eng/?p=6

I hope if you have the chance checking it which surely makes me happy...

Thanks

[Amy H]

As of today, Eissa has been arraigned, but not yet formally charged or arrested.

[aardvark]

Latest word is that Eissa was interrogated for 7 hours and released for now.

[aaron r]

A friend visiting me here in Cairo asked me what would happen if Mubarak died. I thought about and said that I could really only see either Gamal doing his thing or the MB doing theirs. He then asked me whether I'd like to be in Cairo when/if it happens....

I'm not sure to either question...what do you think, ya ustaaz, will happen if the Hos-man kicks the bucket? Will it be safe or erupt in riots?

[Erwin Rommel]

well if mubarak is not dead yet,
Then may be some hero should slay that pagan son of a bitch and send him back to hell

signed
Another Jobless citizen of that bastard nation called the A.R.E