Gaza: the interests of Egypt (and others)

With Egypt about to host a summit in Sharm al-Shaykh with Israel, Jordan, and Mahmoud Abbas, Mohammed Salah, writing in al-Hayat, takes a closer look at Egypt's interests.  While Egypt no doubt is worried about instability and violence across its border in Gaza - especially if it will find itself responsible for dealing with it - Salah points out that Mubarak's strategy is likely guided as much by domestic considerations.   Since their strong electoral performance in 2005, the government has been waging an unprecedented campaign against the Muslim Brotherhood.   According to a number of Egyptian analysts, Mubarak wants to exploit Gaza to gain support (at home and, more important to him, abroad) for this crackdown.   Placing Hamas under seige in Gaza and placing the Muslim Brotherhood under seige in Gaza are two sides of the same coin, argues Salah.   That's an important bit of context for making sense of Egyptian strategy in the Gaza crisis.

It isn't just Egypt, either.  A number of Jordanian writers have argued that the government is trying to use Gaza to hurt the electoral prospects of the Muslim Brotherhood's Islamic Action Front in the Parliamentary elections now scheduled for November.   Like in Egypt, the Jordanian regime hopes to discredit the domestic opposition by association with Hamas, while deflecting any international criticism of steps taken to limit their electoral success (no matter how repressive or anti-democratic).    Jordan has been harrassing its Islamists too, if not to Egyptian levels, and clearly wants to find ways to limit their electoral success: keeping the old, much disputed electoral law which was designed to limit Islamist gains;  media campaigns against Islamists and Hamas;  leveraging Jordanian-Palestinian ethnic grievances; and more. 

The importance of domestic considerations to both Jordan and Egypt matters quite a lot when looking ahead to the international response to the Palestinian crisis.  Both Arab states have a clear domestic political interest in Hamas doing poorly in Gaza and in making Hamas look bad with Arab audiences.  This domestic interest in mobilizing anti-Islamist sentiment may even outweigh strategic interests pointing in the other direction.  Of course, this attempt to focus attention on Hamas and Gaza could backfire spectacularly if the Arab mood shifts in favor of Hamas - something which many Islamists and other Arab writers expect, and which those regimes no doubt fear.  Something to think about as things develop.

Comments

[Amy H]

Not to downplay the crackdown against the MB, but do you think it's actually an "unprecedented campaign"? 1950s, 60s, and 90's crackdowns were extremely harsh...things could get a lot worse.

[nur al-cubicle]

Wow, just saw a picture of King Abdallah of Jordan and he is putting on the pounds! Starting to look like Zebari.

[Solomon2]

this attempt to focus attention on Hamas and Gaza could backfire spectacularly if the Arab mood shifts in favor of Hamas

I guess that five years from now the Arab-Israeli conflict will remain unresolved, but all will be quiet on the Gaza-Libyan border.

[RandallJones]

This article http://www.uruknet.info/?p=33957 says when Hamas took over Fatah security headquarters, it found documents that

"...include information about the involvement of the group of Dahlan and Shabak in cooperating in an organized way with the Mukhabarat of Israel and America, including attempts to inundate Egypt with drugs smuggled from Israel via Gaza, and the distribution of hundreds of thousands of counterfeit dollars in tourist areas of Sinai, to damage tourism in the area.

The documents also refer to the role of Dahlan in inciting Bedouins of Sinai to threaten to support Israeli policy, and to involve their people in smuggling members of "terrorist organizations" into Sinai to undertake operations against tourist installations there, both to hurt Egyptian tourism for the benefit of Israeli tourism, and also to cause trouble between Egypt and Hamas on the assertion that these persons were followers of Hamas."

You should read the complete article.

[SLC]

Re RandallJones

1. uruknet has been found to be completely unreliable by Google and has been delisted from Google News.

2. uruknet has proven their total unreliability by repeating conspiracy crap about the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the US. Therefore, their claims as to alleged documents recovered from Mr. Dahlans' offices in the Gaza strip have no credibility.

3. The notion that the Israeli "Mukhabarat," by which I suppose that Mr. Jones means the Mossad, is conspiring to damage tourist activities in the Sinai is absurd. The biggest volume of such tourist traffic comes from Israel.

[Anon]

"Placing Hamas under seige [sic] in Gaza and placing the Muslim Brotherhood under seige [sic] in Gaza are two sides of the same coin"

Do you mean Gaza in both cases, or "Egypt" the second time?

[aardvark]

Man, that was clumsy... bad spelling and the wrong country all in the same sentence. The latter was of course meant to be Egypt.