a rare Monday post

A few quick notes about tomorrow's elections, on a busy Monday where I can't write up anything really substantive:

*   I've been checking on on the jihadi boards pretty regularly the last few days looking for signs that a bin Laden video is on the way.  So far, nothing.  Usually there's some lead up - posts will go up saying "coming soon from al-Sahab" advertising forthcoming videos.  There's always the chance that a video was delivered directly to a TV station, instead of posted on the internet, but that happens less often these days - and at any rate, I've seen nothing on al-Jazeera advertising such a video.  When al-Jazeera got the videos, it would usually milk it for maximum effect, airing snippets throughout the day and devoting prime time discussion shows to it.  Today's "Behind the News" prime time program was dedicated to Gulf Cooperation Council discussions.  This isn't to say that there couldn't be a surprise tape or attack forthcoming, but it's looking like al-Qaeda Central either decided to sit the election out for some reason (worth discussing if that turns out to be the case) or was unable to pull a tape together and deliver it on time for some reason.

*  Al-Jazeera is covering the midterm elections pretty intensively, and playing it pretty straight.  Hafez al-Mirazi's From Washington program is running more frequently than normal, with a whole bunch of shows due to air over the next few days to talk about the elections and their results.   Right now (2:15 Monday) he's doing an overview of the Congressional and Senate races, and they are talking about how a change in control might affect the leadership of specific House and Senate committees.  The other day I saw an interesting segment of his show focused on how Iraq was affecting and being discussed in the Congressional elections.  This isn't new - al-Jazeera's coverage of the 2004 American elections was comprehensive and balanced, despite the uninformed stereotypes about the station - but still worth noting.

*   Finally, the verdict on Saddam is routinely being discussed on al-Jazeera and throughout the Arab media in terms of the Republican election campaign.   Not exclusively, but it's an unmistakable theme and colors all the other commentary.   The widespread perception that the death sentence was timed to help Bush's party has helped to discredit the trial (which was on shaky ground anyway).  The general tone of most commentary I've read and seen has been that Saddam deserved to be found guilty, but that his execution won't much change things;  that the entire trial had been handled terribly; and that the timing - in the midst of escalating sectarian warfare in Iraq -  could not have been worse.   What a classic example of a step being taken for short-sighted domestic political advantage with utter disregard for its impact on vital foreign policy interests.  Hey, who cares if you throw fuel onto a sectarian war threatening to burn Baghdad if you can get a bump of a few points for a few days in the polls?