Muhajir tape

Al-Qaeda's Iraq branch has already released an audiotape by Abu Hamza al-Muhajir claiming victory in the US elections and mocking Rumsfeld, while urging the US "to stay in Iraq so his group would have more opportunities to kill American troops."   Muhajir's tape fits perfectly with the analysis I've been presenting over the last few months, that al-Qaeda clearly wants the US to stay in Iraq:  "We haven't had enough of your blood yet."   He taunted Bush:  "Remain steadfast in the battlefield, you coward."  He bragged about 12,000 fighters at his disposal, and told the Muslim world that victory over America was coming faster than al-Qaeda had expected.  How much of this tape is posturing for the benefit of a wide Arab audience, how much is aimed at internal Iraqi politics, how much is meant to actually influence American policy, and how much actually expresses Muhajir's (or al-Qaeda's) beliefs is of course something open to much debate. 

That Muhajir got this tape out onto the internet less than three days after the election (and that it got the Libi video out the week of the elections) suggests that al-Qaeda's failure to intervene in the Congressional elections wasn't a question of capability.  So what does its decision to not release an election-altering tape mean?   That it preferred the Democrats in power, and wanted the US to get out of Iraq?   Maybe - but not necessarily. Muhajir taunts Bush repeatedly in the audiotape, daring him to prove his manhood and stay in Iraq.   That strikes me as an attempt to provoke him into refusing any change in US policy despite his electoral defeat.  That would allow al-Qaeda to get the best of all possible worlds out of the election:  to be able to claim victory over Bush and Rumsfeld, without America's disastrous policy actually changing. 

Other interpretations are possible - perhaps I'll have time to present some of them, but I'll be at this conference over the weekend and posting opportunities may be scarce.

HERE'S ONE UPDATE: Nibras Kazimi points out this line in the Muhajir tape:  "today marks “the end of a phase in the phases of jihad” and the beginning of a new phase “where we set down the foundations for the project of an Islamic caliphate and return our faith to glory."   Compare that to this pre-election commentary on one of the jihadi forums, which said that the absence of an election tape would mean that al-Qaeda Central had concluded that the "phase of direct engagement" in Iraq had come to an end. Interesting.   Also, he points out that a lot of the tape focused on internal insurgency issues - condemning groups negotiating with the Americans in Amman, opposing partition (how that squares with the Iraqi Islamic State, which he praises, I'm not quite sure).

Comments

[The Polemicist]

Abu Hamza al-Muhajir also said something to the effect that the U.S. has assisted Iran toward re-establishing a Persian Empire extending to Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria. Interesting comments considering the regional realignments since the summer.

[neil]

The AP article says al-Muhajir calls Bush a "lame duck"? How does that work in Arabic?

[Yohan]

"The AP article says al-Muhajir calls Bush a "lame duck"? How does that work in Arabic?"

البطة العرجاء

Which is pretty much literally "lame duck," although for pure comedy value the Google Arabic Translator decided to render it as "the ungainly duck." I assume the term "lame duck" jumped into Arabic at some point in the past since Muhajir uses it without explaining it, assuming his Arabic speaking audience knows what and whom he is talking about.

[Badger]

Al-Quds says Izzat al-Duri is urging the Baath resistance to help other "Arab and Islamic mujahideen" join with them in the fight, so as to make the country an "open front against the occupation". Some kind of rapprochement going on here ?

[Yohan]

I have found it very telling that every account I've seen in the American media on the Muhajir tape has refused to mention his desire for the US to stay in Iraq while they hype up the ridiculous throwaway line about blowing up the White House. It seems that even after the Democrats' election victories, serious talk about a pull out remains out of bounds in the American MSM. The Bush talking point that pulling out is defeat and lead to a worst case situation and thus unthinkable remains unquestioned and seems as strong as ever.

[Moloch-Agonistes]

Speaking of translations, I find it interesting that al-Muhajir's organization is always referred to as "Al Qaida in Iraq." The actual name, as I noticed again in looking at the still shot, is "Al Qaida in Mesopotamia," i.e. 'The Land of the Two Rivers.' The point being I assume that they expressly reject the legitimacy of Iraq as a British construct.

Nothing new there, but it does suggest to me that in all sorts of ways we're not being served very well by our inept translation of what people over there are saying. Something as clear and important as the assertion that Iraq does not exist as a meaningful entity disappears completely from American sight; meanwhile, you know that Arabic viewers read it loud and clear. No wonder there's cognitive dissonance.