The headline message of Ayman al-Zawahiri's latest video was that he praised the Iraqi insurgency and in particular Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. The release of such praise would seem to be intended to blunt the impact of recent reports (maybe PsyOps, but who knows?) of Zarqawi's "demotion" in leading the insurgency. It actually seems to have been recorded in November 2005, so the tape's content couldn't have been a direct response to the recent rumors - though the release of the tape could have been.
Even more than the contents of the tape, here's what I found interesting: it was released on to the internet rather than broadcast on satellite TV. It's possible that Zawahiri tried to get it aired on al-Jazeera or some other station and failed (I'm trying to find out). But it's also possible that Zawahiri never intended it for satellite TV, or that al-Qaeda Central wasn't responsible for its release at all. Each would be important in terms of making sense of the tape.
If al-Jazeera refused to air it, that would say something about its editorial policies. Since it did air Zawahiri videos as recently as January (2 months after this one seems to have been recorded), I don't find that very likely. Some other station probably would have picked it up, anyway, if al-Jazeera had sat on it. So I'm leaning towards the other two possibleexplanation: that al-Qaeda never meant this video for satellite TV.
Why? Well, I can see two likely possibilities. The first is that the tape was actually released by someone affiliated with Zarqawi, not by someone affiliated with al-Qaeda Central. That would mean a pretty straightforward attempt by Zarqawi's people to rebut the rumours of his demotion by showing other jihadis praise from Zawahiri.
The second possibility is that Zawahiri's people at al-Qaeda Central released the tape directly to the internet because it was a message aimed directly at the jihadist base and not a message aimed at mainstream Arab public opinion. In my recent National Interest piece, I argue that the different media choices by various Islamists reflect significantly different political strategies:
Zarqawi's dismissal of satellite television and his preference for the Internet suggests a profoundly different political strategy. Where Zawahiri and Bin Laden aim to reach out to the vast, uncommitted middle ground of Arab Muslims through tailored rhetoric that is broadcast over the mass media, Zarqawi places far more emphasis on the mobilization of already-committed jihadists.
Zawahiri releasing a video directly to the internet forums would suggest that in this case he is directly addressing the already mobilized base, not crafting a mobilizational message for the Arab mainstream. That would tell us something about how to interpret what he says in the video. It might also tell us something about where he currently sees the biggest challenge for al-Qaeda's strategy - inside the base rather than with the wider public.
So, three possibilities: al-Jazeera refused to air it, Zarqawi's people released it online to buck up their guy's standing, or Zawahiri's people released it online to directly address the jihadi base. Each would be interesting. I hope to find out about possibility number one (al-Jazeera) soon, and keep digging for clues which might help decide among the last two.
Glad to see you back at the blog! This is one of the most interesting blogs I visit daily. Top notch
Posted by: Nathan | April 14, 2006 at 06:04 PM