Telhami/Zogby Poll

The Shibley Telhami six country survey of Arab public opinion is now officially out. (It surveyed Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE in October).  First I'll note some of the headline findings about Arab attitudes towards the United States, Iraq, democracy, and al-Qaeda, and then (as is my way) concentrate on its findings about Arab media preferences (and thanks to Shibley for including this question).   

The headline findings: 
"The United States has been actively advocating the spread of democracy in the Middle East especially since the Iraq war."  6% believe that this is "an important objective that will make a difference";  16% believe that this is "an important objective, going about it the wrong way";  69% "do not believe that democracy is a real objective."

"Did the war with Iraq bring more peace or less peace in the Middle East"?  6% more, 81% less.
"Did the war in Iraq cause more or less terrorism?"  78% more, 10% less.
"Did the war in Iraq create more or less democracy?"  9% more, 58% less.
"Are the Iraqi people better or worse off after the war?"  4% better, 77% worse.

Asked what aspect of al-Qaeda, if any, they most sympathized with:  35% say "confronts the US", 20% say "stands up for Muslim causes such as Palestinian issue"; 7% say "its methods of operation";  6% say "seeks to create an Islamic state."

Now, to the Arab media.  From the various charts and graphs, I've compiled these aggregate (6 country) results for "when you watch international news, which of the following network's [8 choices - I left out an Egyptian station from the table below] broadcasts do you watch most often?"'  "second choice" follows, and "combined first and second choice" is the third column (key results bolded):

                        1st            2nd            Combined           NEVER watch
Al-Jazeera      45%        20%            65%                    10%       
Al-Arabiya        9%        25%             34%                    29%
Abu Dhabi        8%        11%            19%                     43%
MBC                12%        7%               19%                  41%
LBC                 10%         6%              16%                  45%
Al-Manar           4%        5%                9%                    53%
Al-Hurra             1%        4%               5%                    53%

Now, if I were the Broadcasting Board of Governors, I would lead with "47% of Arabs watch al-Hurra sometimes!"  But I'm not.  So instead I'll lead with the painfully obvious:  al-Hurra has completely failed to attract an audience.  It isn't even competitive. 

The other really interesting finding:  al-Arabiya is falling behind.  This may well be the Abd al-Rahman al-Rashed factor.   As he has directed al-Arabiya in an increasingly overt pro-American direction, it seems to be losing audience - just as happened with al-Sharq al-Awsat, the rumour mill says, where the paper shed circulation under his watch. 

Other important points:  Abu Dhabi TV continues to do surprisingly well, largely under the radar; the fuss over al-Manar is exaggerated, since it doesn't have much of an audience outside a small niche;  and everyone watches al-Jazeera. 

There's some significant variation by country:  al-Jazeera is least viewed in Lebanon (63%) and Saudi Arabia (42%).  Al-Hurra is strongest in Jordan  (15%) and Lebanon (9%) - as is al-Manar (15% in Jordan and 24% in Lebanon). LBC is really strong in Lebanon, not so much anywhere else.   

Much more later, I'm sure.  For now, here's coverage of the press conference from  Reuters. 

Comments

[Zappatero]

who has the contracts to put on this propaganda? Lincoln Group?

[honest question]

I could be completely off-base, but my understanding, from a WSJ article a while back, was that Al Hurra had decent viewership, . But it was getting those ratings for entertainment programming -- soccer games, talk shows, etc -- and with little bits of news/propaganda sprinkled throughout.

Here's the WSJ story

If that's true, it wouldn't surprise me if they did badly in a poll like the one above. It would be a bit like saying that since no one is turning to Animal Planet for international news, no one is watching the channel.

[nadehzda]

The link to the survey is missing a hyphen. This works:
http://www.bsos.umd.edu/sadat/TelhamiArabSurvey-2005.htm

[upyernoz]

i was going to complain that the link to the study is broken, but nadehzda's url works fine

[Diamond LeGrande]

Asked what aspect of al-Qaeda, if any, they most sympathized with: 35% say "confronts the US", 20% say "stands up for Muslim causes such as Palestinian issue"; 7% say "its methods of operation"; 6% say "seeks to create an Islamic state."

More than anything, I think this is the important part. It doesn't tell us anything we don't really already know, but we overlook it nonetheless. Al-Qaeda has support for what they trumpet, not what they do. Folks have a nasty tendency to look the other way when others on their side do something morally wrong. (See the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for many examples on both sides.) But it shows that the broader stated goals of al-Qaeda (confronting the US, sticking up for Arabs) earn support, not its "methods of operation" (read: murdering Americans, its method of operation) or its own insane ultimate goal (the return of the pan-Arab Islamic caliphate).

[Nur al-Cubicle]

Why is the caliphate idea so insane? After all, Bush and his Base would like to transform Europe from a continent of humanist skeptics into denizens of Jean Calvin's worldwide domain of the Gospel of Liberty and send the non-believers to be burnt at the stake.

[collounsbury]

The idea is insane for the bloody obvious reasons, if one steps away from silly Left ideological posturing for a moment.

The Caliphate is in no way realistic, etc. but is a stated goal of the organisation. The US President may have bizarre goals (or not), but creating some Caliphal structure or something equally messianiclly nutty is not an explicit one, whatever his haters on the irrelgious Left may want to infer.

I would caution, by the way, mistaking North Western Europe for Europe. The Poles etc. are hardly humanist skeptics.