The only story in today's Arab media is the alleged suicide of Syria's Interior Minister (and former official in charge of Syrian military intelligence in Lebanon) Ghazi Kana'an. Reports indicate the Kana'an was found dead in his office, with no further details provided. Speculation is going in all the directions you'd expect, most linked to the forthcoming UN report on the assassination of Rafik Hariri which has been rumoured to point directly to the Syrian regime.
The speculation:
- "Suicide": Kana'an knew he was going to be implicated, so he killed himself.
- "Scapegoat": Bashar al-Asad needed a scapegoat, so he had Kana'an killed and will offer him up as the villain in order to protect himself and others in the regime.
- "Shut-Up": Bashar al-Asad knew what Kana'an would say to protect himself, so had him killed regardless of whether or not he would make an adequate scapegoat.
- Then there's a grab bag of other reasons that Kana'an might have been killed (or killed himself) unrelated to the Hariri investigation, none of which seem really plausible given the timing.
- [UPDATE, via praktike] Kana'an was plotting a coup w/ the US and he was busted for it.
Right now there aren't enough details to judge between the three four major competing theories. Which shouldn't stop anyone from pontificating authoritatively on the subject! My completely uninformed guess would be the second, "scapegoat" theory: suicide seems unlikely; and the "shutting him up" theory seems implausible because Bashar wouldn't know what Kana'an had already told the UN investigators. It's easy to see how "Kana'an as convenient scapegoat" would be attractive to Bashar and his regime, providing what looks like a way out of the Hariri investigation - "justice has already been done." Whether this would actually satisfy anyone involved with the investigation, or the United States, is an open question - it seems unlikely, but also like the kind of miscalculation Bashar might make. [As for the "plotting a coup" speculation... no opinion on that one as of yet. But go read Josh Landes's sympathetic take on this theory.]
And thus endeth my completely uninformed speculation on the story of the day. No doubt facts will overtake me even before I hit "post"!
I think the other theory going around is that Kana'an was plotting a coup w/ the US and he was busted for it.
Posted by: praktike | October 12, 2005 at 11:23 AM
Dang, I missed that one! I'm going to add it to the main body of the post.
Posted by: the aardvark | October 12, 2005 at 11:27 AM
My idea on this issue is:
Kanaan could have been the Secret witness of Mehlis
Sadik was the diversion of Mehlis
Syria found out
hence Kanaan he is dead
Posted by: Khaled | October 12, 2005 at 01:26 PM
"Bashar wouldn't know what Kana'an had already told the UN investigators."
Not certain at all, the meetings were not private since Syria imposed the presence of 'lawyers' (stooge) during the interrogations.
Posted by: Vox P. | October 12, 2005 at 07:54 PM