Is Zawahiri's letter a fake?

There seems to be growing skepticism about the authenticity of the Zawahiri letter.  I assumed that it was real initially.    But there have now been three different challenges:

• Zarqawi himself, whose spokesman issued a withering rebuttal.  This might of course be explained away as an obvious move for someone who is being publicly upbraided by a senior member of the organization.  But it's still worth noting.

• Then Juan Cole picked up on something very strange - the salutation seems distinctly Shi'i rather than Sunni, which seems an odd way for an Egyptian Sunni to address a rabidly anti-Shi'a Sunni salafi.
• Now Stephen Ulph of the Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Focus has distributed this evaluation (not yet online):  "This letter presents a number of problems. To date there has been no clarification as to how the letter was intercepted, and despite high official confidence of its authenticity, verified by "multiple sources over an extended period of time," there is little in the way of independent corroboration offered. Further questions are raised by the content. While the message of global jihad's aims is consistent with other documents outlining al-Qaeda strategy, it is remarkable that a letter between the two al-Qaeda leaders should spell this out in such an explanatory way, as if these basic details, shared as common knowledge among mujahideen, were the subject of some doubt. Indeed, the text is conspicuous for the way in which it seems to counter, almost point for point, the objections raised by Western critics of the coalition campaign in Iraq."  Ulph also mentions the Shi'i-inflected salutation, and Zarqawi's denial, and then concludes: "In view of the surprising lack of jihadi forum comment on a high-level communication that should be of immense significance and controversy, and pending further confirmation of origin, it would be wise to treat the letter with skepticism.

My own quick scan through some of the jihadi forums confirms Ulph's observation about the lack of much jihadi forum comment on the letter.  So now I don't know what to think.   It's possible that my initial acceptance of the letter's authenticity was at least partially influenced by the fact that the strategy outlined by the alleged Zawahiri letter  - especially the focus on the media and public opinion - so closely fits the argument I've been developing about al-Qaeda's evolving strategic thought.  In that sense, I'd like it to be real, since it's so very useful to me.  But for what it's worth, I think that I'm moving from the "yes, it's real" camp to the "reserving judgement" camp for the time being.   

Comments

[praktike]

Ya ustez, I was going to ask you what you thought about the part where he talks about electing qualified representatives to some sort of Shura, and the emphasis on public opinion ... but then I noticed the use of "Imam," which I thought was weird coming from a Salafist. Then I saw Cole's commentary but not Ulph's. So I'm going to withhold judgement.

[Michael]

Hmm. I don't mean to play a pundit here, but I couldn't keep my hands off Google. Among other places where one finds generous usage of "wa-'alihi wa-SaHbihi" (in Arabic), is a site evocatively called "The pulpit for Tawheed and Jihad".

http://www.google.com/search?num=20&hl=en&lr=&safe=off&c2coff=1&q=%22++%D9%88%D8%A2%D9%84%D9%87+%D9%88%D8%B5%D8%AD%D8%A8%D9%87++++%22+site%3Awww.tawhed.ws

[Michael]

Praktike brings up a question about Salafists (both jihadists and "moderates") that has piqued my curiousity lately, but which I have been too busy (and lazy) to go read up on. I was listening to Qaradawi a while back talking about constitutionalism on al-Jazeera, saying how Muhammad created the first constitution in history (which for him is, emphatically, not to be confused with the Qur'an), and so forth...

http://www.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/2B392691-9253-45E0-8261-DF0A7FEEEBB2.htm

Then I remembered looking at Nadia Yassine's lecture on democracy and Islam, in which she was saying, basically, that the Ummayads hijacked the originally democratic Islamic institutions. I think this one is available only in French:

http://www.nadiayassine.net/fr/index.php?article=fr_art_islam_democ

So, how far-fetched is it that Zawahiri would consider representation along the lines of the early Islamic shura to be a good idea?

[Michael]

I forgot to articulate the "question" that I alluded to above. It's not about Zawahiri specifically. What I'm wondering about is whether the instances of using Salafi arguments to justify modern democratic models add up to seem more like a growing trend, or rather an old constant, or just a few inconsequential occurrences. Perhaps someone with a more regular exposure to Arab media might have a better idea.

[Nur al-Cubicle]

Perhaps Sheikh Jawad al-Khalessi, the Shi’ite imam of the al-Kazemiya Mosque in Baghdad, was right when he told Le Monde last month that al-Zarqawi has been dead for quite some time.

Abu Mussab al-Zarqawi is a ploy used by the Americans to continue the occupation. It’s a pretext to stay in Iraq.

[Michael]

Actually, it just occurred to me to do a direct search on the greeting in question and Zawahiri's name. Here's al-Jazeera's round table on a 2003 tape by Bin Laden and Zawahiri. Transcript of Zawahiri's bit begins:

د. أيمن الظواهري: بسم الله والحمد لله والصلاة والسلام على رسول الله وآله وصحبه ومن والاه.

http://www.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/394F92B2-B69F-41A6-9020-6E14904FC0EB.htm

If the letter is a forgery, it's a forgery by someone who did a bit of research before writing it.

[Nur al-Cubicle]

From the annals of Black Ops Outtakes and Bloopers!

Reuters: U.S. intelligence officials who released a letter purporting to be from an al Qaeda leader to Iraq insurgency leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi this week said on Friday they could not account for a passage that has raised doubts about the document's authenticity.

The July 9 dated letter, which U.S. officials say was written by al Qaeda's second in command, Ayman al-Zawahri, appears near its close to urge the Iraq insurgent leader to send greetings to himself if visiting the Iraqi city of Falluja. [Oh my, caught in the act of cut-and-paste!!]

"My greetings to all the loved ones and please give me news of Karem and the rest of the folks I know," says an unedited English translation posted at www.dni.gov, the office Web site of U.S. intelligence chief John Negroponte. "And especially, by God, if by chance you're going to Falluja, send greetings to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi," it states. [Ha ha ha!]

A spokesman for Negroponte, who is the U.S. director of national intelligence, or DNI, acknowledged the greetings passage was confusing but said the intelligence community was confident the letter was addressed to Zarqawi by Zawahri. [Do tell!]

U.S. officials have refused to disclose details of where, when or how authorities came by the letter, or what methods have been used to determine its authenticity. [They don't want to mention the ass it was pulled out of!]

Some experts contend the strange passage undermines the letter's credibility.

"This would appear to be conclusive evidence that the DNI was mistaken, and that the letter was written to someone other than Zarqawi," Steven Aftergood of the Federation of American Scientists said on on Friday in his e-mail intelligence newsletter, "Secrecy News."

Aftergood cited an article in the online Slate magazine that called attention to the passage as well as the fact the letter was signed with the name, Abu Muhammad. [Wha-ha-ha!!! The wrong signature!!!]

Experts have already said the letter depicts Zawahri as making unrealistic admissions involving al Qaeda's need for money, the Pakistan army's hunt for al Qaeda leaders and the May capture of al Qaeda member Abu Faraj al Liby.

The greetings passage gained little noticed from initial news coverage of the letter's release, which came days before this weekend's constitutional referendum in Iraq.

[Michael]

Just read the letter... If any covert or overt American agency could come up with something like this, I would be very, VERY impressed. But I can't imagine they could. And as a Shi'a forgery, it just makes no sense. However, I like the idea of the brit Aegis Defence Services "that the letter, addressed to Abu Musab, had actually been sent to Abu Musab al-Suri, also known as Mustafa Setmarian Nasar, a Syrian who acted as an intermediary for al-Qaeda in Europe during the 1990s and whose whereabouts were unknown." The tone seems far too cozy for it to be addressed to Zarqawi. The fact that our intelligence services in their infinite hierarchy didn't catch that is more in line with my expectations.

Can you tell I've got a seminar presentation on Monday that I need to procr... I mean prepare for??

[praktike]

Yeah, I just interpreted the weird Fallujah line as a message for the carrier of the letter.

[the aardvark]

Michael, that's good sleuthing! Still odd usage, but makes it more plausible.

Last night I was thinking about Ulph's chatroom point, and it occurred to me that the jihadis on those boards wouldn't really know whether or not it was authentic either... no reason that many of them would have privileged information there. So that point is suggestive, but hardly conclusive.

Truth is, though, is that nothing is likely to happen to resolve this controversy... the letter will remain "disputed" for a while before people forget about the controversy, and this will enter the canon anyway. It's hard to imagine what new information could really resolve it.

[the aardvark]

Juan Cole has revised his analysis, undermining that leg of the argument.

[Nur al-Cubicle]

So, what about Steven Aftergood's findings?

[NoSmap]

The greeting in question is part and parcel of Sunni parlance, the fact that pundits such as yourself don't know that, including the don prof. cole, is emblematic of the manifest ignorance of Islam, Muslims and Muslim culture in the academy (not to mention at large). Learn a thing or two before you start pontificating. While no one in your seminars may notice your error you lose all credibility with Muslim audiences, not to mention anyone with a NELC degree.

[the aardvark]

Yes!!!!!!

Another win in my ongoing experiment!

See, the hypothesis is that writing the words "Juan Cole" guarantees at least one stupid, obnoxious comment... it's fun to wave the red flag every now and then just to see the scurrying!

I was getting worried there for a day... but you saved the day. Thanks for scurrying!!

[Michael]

For some absurdist theater on the subject, don't miss the latest Behind the News on al-Jazeera...

[collounsbury]

Re the part and parlance comment, well, in fact it's not that common (Muslim audiences indeed).

[NoSpam]

Collounsbury, indeed it is. Sorry buddy, but you're wrong. I suggest stopping in for a khutba one of these days and hearing it for your self in use. Greetings on the Prophet, his family, and his companions are said before most acts of worship, including the ritual prayers, supplications, and other supergatory acts. Or for that matter pick up a fiqh text, or any other text in the Arabic language on din, they all begin with the formulaic prayers and blessings on the Prophet, his family, and his companions. It's not a Shi'a thing, it's not a Sunni thing, it's a Muslim thing.

[Anna in Cairo]

The typical thing people here in Egypt here say is "Sala ala el Naby wa ala alihi wa sahbihi wa salam" ("Blessings and peace on the Prophet and on his family and his companions" (I never hear the "wala'" thing and it sounds Shia to my Sunni ears). But Egypt is not salafi and i don't know about their modes of expression. And not everybody uses the same expression.

As for Imam Hussein, if Al Zawahiry the alleged writer is Egyptian (he is, isn't he?), it is a normal thing for an Egyptian to call Hussein an Imam because it is the name of the famous mosque. It's not that weird, I mean. And it definitely is not seen as being too Shia. But that does not mean this letter is genuine.

As for Prof. Cole being wrong about some arcane point of Sunni / Salafi behavior, well his area of expertise is the Shia, specifically the Shia in Iraq, so he obviously can easily be mistaken about Sunni/Salafi praxis. And when he is mistaken he says so and it is an ongoing learning experience for him, which is a good thing.

[the aardvark]

NoSpam/NoSmap - it's silly to argue this as an absolute. That salutation may show up sometimes in Sunni texts or usage, but it obviously is not 100% frequency, nor is it common usage (I never heard it used orally in Egypt, Jordan, or Palestine - not among Muslim Brotherhood types nor among non-Islamists). So to storm in with random abuse just makes you look like a second-rater, not to be taken seriously.

And that's a shame, because your observations might point towards an interesting line of analysis. Maybe it is used in certain places, or by certain kinds of Sunni Islamists, or in certain circumstances - which would then raise a rather more interesting question about what the usage can tell us about the letter's provenance.

Is it, just for the sake of argument, more common in South Asian than in Arab Islamist circles? That would be interesting. Is it more common among Sunnis living in areas with a Shia presence, like Iraq? That would be interesting.

If you could offer thoughts on questions like that, I'd find the intervention interesting. If not, not.

[collounsbury]

Spam, my mate, the formulation as used there I rarely see (if ever, but again I haven't exactely been looking either) and never hear (ever) in the Maghreb, to use an example. Pretending its everyday is, at best, distortive. I can't ever recall encountering it in Egypt myself, but then my memory may be faulty.

Overall, it is certainly not the most common formulation out there, although at the same time when I read the letter it didn't jump out at me either.

[NoSpam]

Dear Prof. Lynch and Sidi Lounsbury,

What you alluded to is the problem when it comes to anecdotal references as being usages of fact - Francois Burgat talks about this extensively in his book. Despite the fact that you did not come across it in Jordan, Egypt, Palestine or elsewhere, does not mean it's not used - rather, you just didn't come across it. Its usage is traditionally based within Islamic scholarship and practice, it has nothing to do with being S. Asian, SE Asian, Arab, or whatever geographic marker and then Muslim. As I said before its a Muslim thing. There is not a khutba in the world that does not begin and end with the formulaic greetings - even in Salafi masajid. There is no arguendo does X do it more than Y, or does it X do it because of a Shi'a presence.

So let me attempt to demystify this confusion. I assume you'll all understand the reason or basis for salat wa salam ala rasul - clearly Muslims of all stripes do this. Wa ala alahi - upon his family - why because Sunnis also praise his family and have a deep respect for the ahl al-bayt, though obviously Sunnis don't view them as masum (infallible). wa asabahi - upon his companions - as a generation they're mentioned in the Qur'an (so too are his family) - radiallah anhum radu an - God is pleased with them; and they are pleased with Him. Sunnis and Shi'is alike believe and accept that the Companions were the best community of Muslims that will ever exist. The difference is the definition of a Companion is different from the Sunni and Shi'a perspective (if you want to know more ask). I am not sure what more I can add.

To mate Lounsbury, the forumla is used throughout the Muslim world and has a distinct Sunni usage. I would expect you to have encountered it time and time again in Maghrib because of the influence of Sufi turuq in the region. The simple fact is that the formula is used in acts of worship, ritual and otherwise, unless you're observing Muslims worship you won't come across it.

I suggest to you and Prof. Lynch if you don't believe me - feel free to disagree - to consult your local imam and ask him. I'm sure you'll hear the same answer.

My apologies for my tone earlier. I am greatly irked by punditry and really do like Prof. Cole but him not knowing this, nor others for that matter, and continuing to offer analysis is a problem in the academy when it comes to Islam, Muslims, and Muslim culture. My point is just this: refrain from speaking about what you don't know for inevitably you shall expose your ignorance on the matter. I think this is a good maxim in the academy and everywhere else, but too often if you have a PhD it allows you to feel you've earned the right to comment (however uninformed) on an overarching subject matter with full authority.

[the aardvark]

I don't think anyone would disagree with the general points - of course Sunnis value the Prophet's companions and family, who says they don't? But if Lounsbury and I are committing the sin of generalizing from our own experience, you're committing the classic Orientalist sin, generalizing from the formal text. The fact is that - regardless of what may be normative - actual usage varies. It varies from place to place, it varies by occasion, it varies by local custom.

I'm not particularly invested in any of this - I only cited Cole's critique, as one of a number of publicly aired objections, at the end of which I've decided that the letter was probably authentic. So I really, honestly don't much care about the specific point. But the wider one is worth further discussion - about ways of knowing and practical vs normative types - even if I can't engage in it for a couple of days since I'm leaving town (so don't think I'm ducking anything if you comment again and I don't respond!).

[Tony]

I agree with Michael above, and my own research got the same results he did (independently!). Bernard Heykal also agreed with me in a comment to my post on the subject.

I particularly agree with the statement that if this were indeed a forgery (and I don't have a problem with that anyway), the guy who did it did more research than Juan Cole did, and certainly more than what he gave him credit for.

But that wouldn't be the first time either that Cole's supposed bona fides (Arabic and expertise on Islamic sects) has been proven shaky.

As for common usage, I've heard it several times in Lebanon, and I've heard it in Sunni chants (and, as a reader pointed out, even in Sufi chants, which he sent me as well). So this, the backbone of Cole's argument, is ludicrous.

Best,
t