UPI Jordan's Crisis

Sana Abdullah UPI reports on the political crisis in Jordan:

As Jordan marks its 59th independence day Wednesday, it faces a deep crisis between the government of Prime Minister Adnan Badran and a large minority in parliament that has threatened to withhold confidence.

The formation of Badran's government last month did not so much divide the country as it resurfaced the unspoken sensitivities between East Bank Jordanians and Jordanians of Palestinian origin, with the first group using the so-called threat of absorbing or settling the Palestinians as an excuse for what it sees as the second gaining too much power.

At issue is that Badran, a veteran academic, brought an unprecedented number of Jordanians of Palestinian origin into his Cabinet, while ignoring representatives from major tribes in southern Jordan. Around 12 of the 26-member government are Palestinians.

I'm glad to see that my reading of the Jordanian political scene is becoming the conventional wisdom, and I'm even more glad to see Jordan getting the critical attention it deserves.   As Rami Khouri argued in the piece I quoted yesterday, it was only this negative Western attention which got the attention of the Jordanian Powers That Be.  The more criticism right now, the better. 

Is the criticism getting results?  Reuters reports that

Jordan will introduce fresh  legislation to promote political freedom, the Prime Minister  said on Tuesday, but he denied the government was responding to  pressure from Washington.

The government would reform electoral law and review  unpopular draft laws that have caused an outcry by international  human rights groups and mainstream Islamists for violating free  speech and public liberties, said Prime Minister Adnan Badran.

"We are talking about major domestic changes. There are no  red lines in our reform agenda," he said in an interview with  Reuters.

So in terms of getting the government to pay lip service to the need for democratic reforms, yes - the criticism is getting results.  As to whether that amounts to real, significant changes... very much a wait and see.  Since the Bush administration has been completely silent on Jordan (over 45 days without a single official reference to the Kingdom's political crisis now), it won't get any credit if reforms do materialize.  But I don't much care who gets credit, I just want to see results.

Meanwhile, Elaph is running an unsourced report claiming that PM-designate Adnan Badran has recently begun private talks aimed at reshuffling the cabinet to make it more acceptable to Parliament.  The shuffle would add several ministers of southern, Transjordanian origin, without removing anyone already in the Cabinet (i.e. Bassem Awadullah).  Sounds plausible to me, the best way for Badran to move past the crisis - dealing the King and Badran a real political defeat, confirming the strength of the Transjordanian nationalist trend, without actually derailing the Parliament or sparking a real confrontation.  Plausible, but at this point still only speculation.