Khamenei blinks?

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is reportedly hesitating about backing the Guardian Council's decision to ban reformist candidates for Parliament. The Times reports that governers around the country had threatened to resign en masse in protest, while a number of MPs are staging a sit in and have threatened to resign, and an ally of Mohammed Khatami has hinted that he may resign - all told, a rather unusual show of resolve from reformists who had long since seem to have lost the stomach for fights. All of this must have given pause.

If Khamenei does blink, and decides to allow the banned candidates to run, this could be a pivotal moment in reversing the political trend. Yesterday I noted that the long political stalemate, and especially the impotence of the reformists, was driving alienation from the political system. If some combination of external pressure (from the EU, since the US has long since abandoned any leverage it might have in Iran) and internal mobilization, it could inspire the moribund reformist movement by giving it hope. Things have been going the way of the conservatives for so long that any victory for the reformists could have disproportionate impact.

Of course, this all depends on the unlikely prospect that Khamenei really does overrule the ban, which I wouldn't put much money on at this point.

Comments

[Jonathan Edelstein]

I actually think it's fairly likely that Khatami will blink, but I also don't think that this will be a pivotal moment. Appellate mechanisms in Iran are often used as a means of rectifying unpopular decisions without admitting error, and Khamene'i might very well overrule the more egregious disqualifications (while allowing the majority to stand). The parliamentary sit-in, like student protests, is a signal to Khamene'i that the Guardians have overstepped the line, and such signals are a semi-recognized part of Iranian politics. The turning point would happen if Khamene'i doesn't back down and forces a showdown; otherwise, the current crisis is more or less par for the course.

[the aardvark]

Hmm... very good point. You're right about the face-saving method, of course, and about how Khamenei might play it. But my thought here is that the reformists, from Khatami on down, have shown little willingness to fight for quite a while. The various sit-ins and threats to resign and such suggests a new willingness to go outside institutional procedures to apply pressure. If it works, it could break the air of inevitability which seems to surround the conservative campaign. That's why I see this as more than just par for the course. But maybe I'm just desperate for the reformists to find their feet again... . Oh - I read the student protests differently from this current fight- as a sign of their frustration with the reformists.

[Jonathan Edelstein]

I interpret the student protests more as expressions of frustration with the reformers and the theocracy. With some exceptions, their beef with the reformers is due less to substantive policy disagreement than to the reform politicians' willingness to compromise with the theocrats.

As far as the reformers' willingness to go outside institutional channels, it's important to keep in mind that Iran is a _constitutionalist_ theocracy. Since Khomeini's death, the constitution has been the primary source of legitimacy for both the ayatollahs and the Majlis, and even the former have been reluctant to transgress the letter of the law. My read - and I'm more than willing to be proven wrong - is that the reformers don't want to be the first to take the gloves off, because that would (1) undermine their own legitimacy and (2) free the theocrats from their remaining constitutional constraints. Since the constitution favors the theocrats, this dynamic has of course hampered the reformers' ability to enact their program.

In the last year or two, however, the theocrats' claim to constitutionalism has become increasingly ragged (e.g., the growing use of paramilitary forces and presumptively unconstitutional judicial rulings) and the reformers have faced more pressure from the street. The local elections may have been a wake-up call for the reformers, underscoring how irrelevant they may become if they continue to play by the rules of a rigged game. The question is whether they haven't already waited too long - many of the student leaders, for instance, consider the reformers _already_ irrelevant and view the sit-in as a purely political maneuver.

Great site, BTW - I'll blogroll you the next time I update my template.